Sunday Evening Update

Good Sunday evening. Showers continue to roll eastward across the state this evening as a cold front slowly inches toward the region. Rain will become much more scattered overnight into Monday as winds begin to gust up. 35-40mph gusts will be possible Monday as colder air settles in by the end of the day.

That colder air will set the stage for the possibility of some wet snow from a southern storm Tuesday night into Wednesday. I still do not have much confidence in how this thing will work out as we have quite the model spread. The European and GFS have trended farther south and weaker with this system, while the NAM is farther north and stronger…

NAM 1

That would bring a swath of accumulating snow to parts of the state with a mix for others. The farther north and stronger solution does have support from the Short Range Ensemble Forecast Model…

GFS

We will see what the overnight and Monday runs say before we get too specific on how much of an impact this storm will have where you live.

Regardless… winter is coming back hard and that’s what we’ve been yelping about for a while. I see others have now joined the party. It’s B.Y.O S… Bring Your Own Snow. :)

The weather for this coming weekend looks wicked with arctic cold, wind and snow. Look at the direct discharge of arctic air diving into our region on the European Model…

Euro

You also see the Euro is blowing up a big storm to our east and northeast. Will that be far enough west to have a significant impact on Kentucky? That remains to be seen, but several snow makers are likely to dive in from the northwest during this time…

CanadianWe will have additional snow threats coming in behind that for the following week.

I will see you guys with another update later tonight. Enjoy the rest of your evening and take care.


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25 Responses to Sunday Evening Update

  1. In Lincoln Co. says:

    Thanks Chris for giving us a heads up for the potential for bad weather. Even if it doesn’t pan out, at least we know to keep an eye on the weather! :)

  2. pattyversailles says:

    I’m done with all the snow talk. Tired of the maybe, if’s, could, likely’s, and possible’s! We are just not going to get those big “old school” snows we remember of our youth. So, moving forward I’m all about spring! Sorry if I popped some of your bubbles, not meaning to. Just hate Ky weather this last decade.

  3. Bill L says:

    Oh no! What happened to mid-week snow potential increasing? Sigh…the Dome, the Dome….

    • which way is the wind blowing says:

      Thats why the NWS that serves the whole public takes their time before going on record. This is no dig at Chris he is allowed wide strike zone on a blog site.

  4. Johnny says:

    Same ole stuff. All hype and the closer it gets, just fades away. Chris does a good job but I miss Brad James.

  5. Coffeady says:

    Thanks, Chris. So we are back to wishing. Oh well, whatever comes, we will deal with it and move on. Appreciate all you do, Chris.

  6. bjenks says:

    Thanks CB for the update. I am sure the comments will increase over the next several days….I am going to stay positive and say that one of these next three storms are going to explode over our region. Hope your not south or on the fence….Cold rain sucks….Although spring is just around the corner we still have a month left of winter.
    THINK SNOW!!!!

  7. which way is the wind blowing says:

    This is ridicules everytime a model shows a possibility of snow the blanket is pulled out from under our feet that is touching the green muddy turf.

  8. Andy Rose says:

    looks like an all rain event atm maybe some backside snow

  9. Andy Rose says:

    and as far as BYOS i guess will have to rent a snow machine as can’t bring what ya haven’t had hopefully winter will finally make an appearance for south central KY

  10. eyewall says:

    Reports of large wedge tornadoes ripping through South Mississippi. One hit Hattiesburg and went right trough the campus of Univ. of Southern Mississippi.

  11. Mark says:

    Reports of heavy damage and injuries from tornadoes in Mississippi. Video from Hattiesburg:

    https://plus.google.com/100355451043993388771/posts/iRUX23Msy59

    The severe wx threat will be well south of us, south of the Tennessee/Alabama line. This said, I might have heard a rumble of thunder here in Nashville when the line of heavy rain went through earlier this afternoon.

  12. Mike says:

    Models = Guesscast = Hopecast
    Models do NOT= Forecasting do NOT= Prediction do NOT=Reality

  13. KRinRichmond says:

    Hold off on the snow this coming Saturday. I’m going to Knoxville and watch the Cats play Rocky Flop….I mean Top. Don’t need snow to drive in.

  14. Bobt says:

    Spring can’t get here fast enough. The story of SE Kentucky Winter 2012-2013 has been rain, rain, rain. Anytime someone North of us in Kentucky had snow, we got a flood. Anytime the temps got warm enough to sneak outside and enjoy a day, we once again got rain. Today was a typical example. Temps hit 62 degrees and what are we greeted with? Rain and wind. I want to dry out and warm up. I’m tired of sitting in the house. lol

  15. Snoluvr says:

    CB I really think you need to put a “guide to reading the blog” sticky somewhere. People seem to read your posts too literally and start blaming you when things don’t materialize. I appreciate that you show us possibilities. We live in an area where predicting the weather is a huge challenge. Anyone who reads the NWS forecast discussions or watches their local mets knows this. Please keep talking about possibilities and varying model runs and what may happen if the stars align correctly. Your “guide” should tell people this isn’t a forecast site. It’s a weather discussion blog. BIG difference.

  16. troy says:

    So much negativity here…. We all want to see a good snow, but chances are that it’s not gonna happen this year and maybe not for the next few. Like it or not, the climate has changed. Most likely mother nature’s natural cycle, pushed along by mankind’s pollutants (no, I’m not an environmentalist but I’m also not blinded as to what we’re all doing to the earth and atmosphere) . We all know, that the models a very undependable (especially the NAM which is what CB was basing this last snow possibility on) so there’s really no reason for everyone to be let down that the model has changed once again to rain. It’s the new norm for time being….it’s time to get used to it.

  17. BubbaG says:

    CB, I think your acronym is very fitting: Bring Your Own Snow. Besides some mix for much of the state- at best, seems folks really do need to bring their own snow ;)

    Not seeing the good snow chances unless the usual places that have got some snow already. The dome is a cold place: 33 degrees with mainly cold rain. Boo!

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