Monday Evening Update

Good Monday evening to one and all. Winter is about ready to return to the commonwealth as we are tracking a system that may bring some snow by Wednesday. That will be the opening act for a weekend of arctic cold, some snow and wind.

The system moving in Wednesday takes a track across Tennessee into North Carolina. That will send a swath of wet snow and rain into the bluegrass state. There is likely to be some accumulating snow with this, but the NAM looks a little juiced up for my taste…

NAM

A warm ground and marginal temps will be fighting the snow that falls. We will just have to wait and see what we can get to stick and what areas will see it.

Arctic air dives in on Friday and this will bring additional snow chances to the state. Will this be in the form of rounds of snow showers and squalls or a more pronounced snow system? The Canadian Model likes the bigger system…Canadian

The GFS is trying to come around to something similar for later Saturday…

GFSAnother northwesterly trending system on the GFS is very possible! ;)

Have a great evening and take care.


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19 Responses to Monday Evening Update

  1. Coffeady says:

    Thanks, Chris. Looks like an interesting week for sure. Guess we sit back and play the waiting game for now. Have a great evening, everyone.

  2. Angelica says:

    2-3 inches here in Lexington? I’ll take it :) Hope it doesn’t turn to be a cold rainy day. I like the way Saturday looks though :D

  3. cosmokramer says:

    Another Swath making an appearance? Beware the sloth of the Swath….In meteorological terms, Wednesday is defined as any day between Wednesday and the weekend……if it hasn’t materialized by the weekend, the Swath may make its appearance “next week.” ;)

  4. JJTeach says:

    It would be nice if this Wednesday system would trend a little colder as we get closer

  5. Ready4Snow says:

    Regarding the weekend …The 6z run today was a good run for alot of ky and also bombed the NE again…12z showed nothing..18z came back on board but farther east,which might be a good thing at this time,with only far eastern ky getting snow,,,If Euro comes aboard tomorrow then certainly something to watch……Hopefully this winter or lack of will be over soon…

  6. spencerlady says:

    Louisville mets calling for rain Wednesday due to temps above freezing Guess it is a wait and see approach.

  7. Andy Rose says:

    More Sprinter weather there Bubba a season that i made up to replace winter ;)

    • BubbaG says:

      Very fitting. Especially since it looks like we are near done with big snow chances and sparse on even ankle biters. Two wimpy snow years in a row…. On a positive note, at least it is not like 10/11 when we had a bunch of 1″ and 2″ events and a LOT of salt.

      I will take no snow any day over ankle biters. Not worth the trouble in accidents and salt accumulation.

      Yep, like last year, we get the “but winter is not over”. True, but look at the trend as far as snow. Most of us have got just about nothing and only a trend buster can shake it up.

  8. pattyversailles says:

    Ain’t buyin’ it! Spring! Get over here!!

    • BubbaG says:

      In CB’s defense, he is not selling too much. Just offering the meager menu the “winter chef” offers around here. If we equate snow to calories, we are on a strict celery diet ;)

  9. miss kate says:

    i was in Meijer and perused the garden aisle. i am now dreaming of what my family will plant in our garden this year. i can’t wait to taste that first bite of zuchini bread, fresh from the oven! hurry up spring!

  10. Mark says:

    We have to keep in mind that March has seen some big winter storms.

    In the same way Chris recently mentioned the fifth anniversary of the 2008 Super Tuesday tornado outbreak, bet he will bring up the anniversary of the March 1993 blizzard next month. Even Birmingham had a foot of snow. I’m sure many of us have lots of stories to tell. I was a nine year old in east Tennessee, that storm is something I’ll never forget.

  11. Mark says:

    Yesterday’s tornado that struck Hattiesburg MS has tentatively been described by the NWS as an EF4.

    However, no lives were lost!

    Kudos to Hattiesburg and other stricken areas, the NWS, local media/storm spotters/EMS officials/etc for their preparations before, during and after the storm.

  12. Bobt says:

    Get out of denial people. Winter really never started this year, so why expect anything big after mid-February? I know we have some big February and March snows, but we also used to have some big January snows and how did that month work out. Less than 1 inch total on the year in my location. I personally gave up on the big snows about four (maybe 5) years ago. All models had SE KY getting 10+ inches of snow less than 24 hours out and Bailey’s snow map had us in the bullseye. To summarize, Lexington ended up getting 4 or 5 inches and SE KY was all green. Didn’t even end up with a flake south of Rockcastle.

  13. Lincoln says:

    16th, yay!!!!!!

  14. WXEMGUY says:

    For Wednesday…I’d expect the NAM to trend a little colder (not much, but slightly) over the next few runs. Same to be said for the GFS. In the precip charts, I find it interesting that the GFS shows bands of snow embedded between bands of rain, which may be computer model possible…but not real world weather possible. Overall point being the GFS picks up on snow being there, but it’s ever important to remember that the GFS does not do well with handling low level temperatures….so advantage push toward snow.

    That being said, I think posters need to get more realistic when complaining about snow they don’t get (and remember the times they celebrate what they call an overachiever). Overall, a pattern is established…but the trickery is in knowing where the better snow bands shape up. Also, for this one…the nodels may show 2-3-4 Inches…just know that the models are accounting for moisture in the atmosphere…not the warmth of the ground. That said, you may get 4 inches…but only an inch sticks…and that is not a forecast model bust!!!!

    As for the weekend…it WILL be interesting folks!

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