Watching A Wintry Wednesday

Good Tuesday to one and all. We have a storm system that will usher in wet snow and a rain/snow mix for Wednesday. This will be the beginning of the return of winter that will dominate the rest of the month, and may hang tough into early March.

The track of the storm Wednesday is one that is usually good for accumulating snow across the state. You can see that here on the NAM…

NAM

This storm will be working into an air mass that’s marginally cold enough for snow and will have to fight a warm ground. That said… the NAM still wants to put down some slushy accumulations…

NAM 2Again… this is a marginal temperature system and a mix of rain and snow may be the dominant precipitation type unless some dynamic cooling kicks in.

An arctic front pushes into the state on Friday. This will produce snow showers and flurries along the boundary as winds gust up. We may see a storm develop along this front and produce a more pronounced snow system late Friday into Saturday. Some of the latest runs are going crazy with a huge storm. The Canadian is all in…

Canadian

That would be something close to the B word around here. The NOGAPS looks similar…

nogaps

The GFS Ensembles are trending toward a big storm developing across the eastern part of the country…

GFS

On the flip side of this… the European Model no longer has a storm anywhere across the east. It was going all in on a big storm a few days ago. The European is the leader of the models and it’s hard to get excited when it doesn’t show something. Still… the model is not infallible.

If that low does not develop… snow showers and squalls will become widespread at times this weekend and that should produce some accumulations. Highs will run in the 20s and low in the teens as gusty winds crank up and make it feel even colder.

Updates as needed today. Have a great day and take care.


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32 Responses to Watching A Wintry Wednesday

  1. Go Cards says:

    Yeah it is hard to be excited without the Euro in our corner. Sniffing out big storms is something the Euro excels at. It was right with Sandy and the recent blizzard in the Northeast. Had the blizzard pegged 5-6 days out. No other model even picked up the blizzard until it was 3 days out. If the Euro isn’t showing something big by tomorrow night you can forget it. Probably just cold with a few flurries like always.

    • WXEMGUY says:

      There is serious merit to your comments regarding the Euro, as far as applicability to Sandy and the Winter Blizzard that just happenned. However, it is important to remember two (2) critical things is this current setup.

      1.) The Euro may have dropped it for now (12Z run at least), but the Euro has been all in on this once already, and may very well be on board again.

      2.) AND MORE IMPORTANTLY!!! The dynamics here are of a particularly narrow, and very sharp digging trough…The uniqueness is the east-west real estate it covers, which is realistic, but very very narrow. Computer models (even the best of them) effort to simplify in their reconciliation, and smooth things out. In the models, which show the lobe of the digging trough, we see big problems. In the model runs that simplify and shave off the lobe…we see a sweeping trough with no low. The trough is narrow enough that some runs of the GFS and EURO and etc do not see it at all…then on other runs…its just wide enough that they catch it. In this case (including the EURO)…absent does not mean non existent.

      Looking at a model run is one thing…but understanding its applicability to the overall setup is another. One thing that dishartens me on this blog and other weather blogs sometimes is that posters fail at pattern recognition and/or put all of their chips into one particular model and/or one particular set of model runs…That is not meteorology…and that is not forecasting skill!

    • bjenks says:

      You can’t put the NAM in that thinking as it only goes three days out and it pegged NEMO(LOL). I DO NOT trust the Canadian at all. I do agree with your statement on the Euro it is the most reliable. Hopefully something starts showing up later today or overnight. Would like for Winter to come on strong for a few weeks anyhow. THINK SNOW!

  2. Reenyinky says:

    Chris, you crack me up! The “B” word? If only……..s _ _ _! If we don’t get a pile of the stuff soon, you can keep it! Spring-like days are spoiling me! Thanks for working so hard for us! Love the Blog!

  3. cosmokramer says:

    Alas, no mention of the Swath Monster was mentioned in this post….only “slushy accumulations” and “pronounced” snow and a “big storm”. Bring back the Swath, Mr. Bailey….I’m running out of air quotes! ;)

  4. BubbaG says:

    Comparing events that typically smack together in the north east seems not apples to apples. We are the area those type of systems go past when starting to converge.

    I am not a obviously not a met, but will now take MJ’s stance: If nothing good to post, post nothing. I have stated my view of the rest of winter, so time to take the repeat off and move on :)

    Bring on spring!

    • bjenks says:

      What fun would that be if CB posted nothing. By the way he metioned the “B” word in this post. If that does get people talking then he should just post “Nothing to see here folks, move on”. Spring is just around the corner, but you have to stay positive and believe that there will/could be a nice thumping over these next few weeks of winter’s return.

      • 3789N8436W says:

        ‘B’ words: Bust, bottom out, not BE, blammo,and others for NOTHING: annihilation, aught, bagatelle, blank, cipher, crumb, diddly, duck egg, extinction, fly speck, goose egg, insignificancy, naught, nihility, nix, nobody, nonbeing, nonentity, nonexistence, not anything, nothingness, nought, nullity, obliteration, oblivion, scratch, shutout, trifle, void, wind, zero, zilch, zip, zippo, zot

        • bjenks says:

          I put that out there for that one reason! I knew it would draw at least one BUST comment. You very well exceeded my expectations. LOL

  5. rolo says:

    the EURO has the storm, dont know what u guys looking a!!tt

    it just to far off the east coast to effect ANYBODY, and thing god as the NEAST dont need another 2 feet.

    all this mid week system is, re affirms that WINTER WEATHER no longer exist in KY..

    u all take care and tx BAILEY.

    • c-BIV says:

      “all this mid week system is, re affirms that WINTER WEATHER no longer exist in KY..”

      A big reason why I can’t wait to move back to Illinois!! Just 2 more winters :-)

      • Ready4Snow says:

        Illinois has not been the epicenter of snow recently either…Anyway’s when up there throw us some snow down this way if you have any to spare…

        • c-BIV says:

          You’re right about that… they have a much better chance of reclaiming true winter weather, though, at least.
          I am here for 2 more years. Will always follow the blog and try my best to shake the snow globe for the dome haters lol.

  6. rolo says:

    BUT, rememmber 1987 MEGA STORM,, was first of april, so yes there always hope.

  7. rolo says:

    looking at morning runs, GFS,EURO says juuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuust a bit to far to the easttt.

    the canidan says GO TO THE GROCERY STORE.

  8. unclesi says:

    dominate the rest of the month and hang into March …. REALLY !! hey, even the 10 day forecast on his own station shows next Mon – Thu, temps 49,49,45,50 …… so when is this going to dominate jack? hmmmm maybe never, cause it’s not going to happen … spring is right around corner, hey might as well get onboard or get left behind

  9. Snowman says:

    Just not buying into a frozen tundra the rest of Feburary. I think we’ve seen the end of winters in Ky. – too much warming has taken place in the last 20 years or so. We now have weather like North Georgia had back in those days. The snowbelt is retreating far, far away…. :(

  10. Snowteach says:

    OK, so I need to know the probability of no school on Wednesday. Straight up….

  11. Woodsman says:

    My snow will never melt…

  12. Todd says:

    this blog is nuts, I’ve always heard where most mets take a blend of models to make their forecast, now I’m reading if the euro is not on board that its not going to do anything, ok that’s funny since the euro has yet to deliver a storm to ky it has shown a few days out?

    Side note, the little storm approaching for Wednesday is going to nail the Oklahoma area with 6 to 12 inches with temps in the mid 30s?
    The have warm ground their also?

    KY dome is alive and well!

    • Go Cards says:

      I get what you are saying. I was just stating if the Euro was consistent and showing a big storm every run I would believe it was likely to happen. Yes the Euro showed big storms before that never materialized. It only showed that once or twice and then would back off. Did you get a big storm? If you are putting faith in the Canadian or Nam good luck to you. I don’t know maybe they will be right this time but not likely.

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