NAM vs GFS

Good Tuesday afternoon. We have quite the model battle going on between the GFS and the NAM with the Wednesday storm. The GFS has much less precipitation and is weaker with the low, while the NAM is stronger with the low and has more precipitation.

The end result…

GFS Snowfall Forecast

GFS SnowfallNAM Snowfall Forecast

NAM Snow

The NAM says we start as rain then dynamic cooling kicks in late morning into the afternoon and switches the rain over to a period of moderate to heavy snow. The weaker solution of the GFS says no dynamic cooling gets involved so it’s mainly a rain/snow mix with a period of light snow.

The truth is likely in between these two solutions, but the NAM smoked the GFS on the northeastern blizzard a few days ago. Of course… most models smoked the GFS on that storm.

On a related note… the Canadian and NOGAPS models continue to show a major winter storm around here this weekend. I guess we will see.

Updates coming later today and on WKYT-TV starting at 4pm. Take care.


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79 Responses to NAM vs GFS

  1. In Lincoln Co. says:

    LET’S GO NAM!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  2. Todd says:

    Now that sounds like a blend we can live with, nam says bam!

  3. Brian says:

    Man, those are far apart for one day out. In this case, I think a better solution is from the IJG model. It’s widely used by TV mets; Chris is a rare exception.

    Anybody else familiar with the IJG? The “I’m Just Guessing” model?

  4. Faye says:

    Given our past history, I think the GFS is the best bet…

  5. Todd says:

    Looking at radar south& west of here moisture will not be the problem, temps and the dynamic cooling is the issue for a few inches of snow?

    Oklahoma is having no problem with the mid 30s and getting heavy snow today!

    • MarkLex says:

      So what factors would make Oklahoma get Dynamic cooling and snow and not us with this same storm, just out of curiosity? Not that we won’t have dynamic cooling tomorrow? Also, why is there NO snow in western KY? It’s almost as if it just stops at Oklahoma, then starts again into parts of KY? Just seems odd that dynamic cooling would be in Oklahoma, then stop in Ark, TN, and west KY, then start again in Central and eastern KY on up through the east. I don’t get it.

      • Todd says:

        Good question on that, seems even though we are further north than Oklahoma they seem to always have better dynamic cooling down that way?

  6. Andy Rose says:

    Just seen Knox County blow alot of money pretreating roads for rain LoL guess they haven’t learned that all it does is rain all it does is rain

  7. WendyT says:

    I don’t see how we get anything but cold rain tomorrow. It’s been too warm, and the forecast lows aren’t that cold. And this is another southern fed system. We’ve seen how those have panned out so far this winter. But I’m no meteorologist…..

  8. Cosmokramer says:

    Swathman borrows an L , drops the w & h, and becomes Saltman….Saltman will be the only measurable precip Wednesday night.

  9. unclesi says:

    hey even if it snows a foot wed night, the temp se ky on thurs is 52 so what good will that do
    now this weekend might be a surprise to us … temps will be perfect for a good snow dump

  10. Woodsman says:

    Very interesting storm.

  11. cb says:

    about the weekend storm, how often is the Canadaian and NOGAPS correct after the storm? i always here about the GFS, NAM, or EURO getting praise after calling a big storm in advance, but what about the other 2?

  12. which way is the wind blowing says:

    I could care less which model is correct there is no those for Louisville

  13. Todd says:

    Chris says at 4 pm news he will not even put out a snowfall map for tomorrow, now watch this one overachieve?

  14. Todd says:

    NWS in Louisville saying tomorrow will be a now casting situation because of unknowns in the upper dynamic cooling possibilities, heavy banding could form especially from Lexington east? Maybe a sneaky snow for some folks in eastern KY??

  15. Dawnp007 says:

    All very interesting.

  16. Miss Kate says:

    not interested anymore. Hubby turned the garden today. I am dreaming of warm sunshine and playing in the dirt.

  17. Lincoln says:

    Dynamic cooling usually doesn’t work for us as of late. I’d go with GFS.

  18. Chris Mercer says:

    Another nice warm, winter day. Who wants to chart how many days this winter have seen highs of 50+ vs. highs of 32 or less? :) Both should be equally probable, but I bet you know the score!

    29-10 in favor of 50+ at Lexington, through today, and Lexington is one of the cooler reporting stations in Kentucky.

    Awful hard to believe “winter is coming” when you see that kind of stat!

  19. MarkLex says:

    Well – don’t be surprised. Remember last march we ended up with five inches of very wet snow in Lexington and it was beautiful!

  20. Chris Mercer says:

    Just to be fair–here are the stats from last winter (Through Feb 12, at Lexington)

    50+ 32 days
    32 or less 5 days

    And from 2010-2011

    50+ days 6 days
    32 or less 34 days

    I don’t want to call anyone out–but almost all the local mets called for this winter to be closer to 2010-2011 than 2011-2012. The facts just don’t back that up!

    • c-BIV says:

      you are not calling anyone out. It is what it is…

      Look, Bailey even understands he has to almost try to give us straws to grasp at this winter when there really isn’t anything to see. It’s a blog and he wants to keep viewers coming back. However, it has to be wearing on him and all the mets in Kentucky as to how winterless the winter has been the past few years.
      As Marklex said, our big snow of the winter last year was in March! That says it all, as well.

      • BubbaG says:

        For who? We got 1.5″ total last winter and a tad over 2″ this winter. Perception is in the backyard and I understand that. Ours is more salt than snow for two winters in a row.

  21. Reece says:

    What is the latest name??

  22. chris g in clay county says:

    Clay got its biggest snow all winter last winter on Sunday feb 18th I think was the date. Chris first call had us in 6 to 12 seems like. Was a lot of rain then a switch to snow. I wanna say clay got around 5 to 6 inches from that storm. I think everyone forgot that event.

  23. which way is the wind blowing says:

    All I know UK season is over,Noel injury just put a fork in it. The winters hype is over likewise. Wait until next year.(lol)

    • BubbaG says:

      They still have a chance at making the tournament, but even with Noel (great kid), they were unstable and could lose to anybody. Noel was their best player though, but a few people playing together never equals a team. This team does not play like a “team”. Coach Cal has said that a few times, so not me conjecturing, but in full agreement.

      Snow chances have been meh for a while.

  24. chris g in clay county says:

    Was Sunday the 19th 2012

  25. Bill L says:

    wow…the NAM leaves Louisville naked. I truly want some snow….

  26. Go Cards says:

    I told my friend who is a big UK fan that Harrow would be a problem. He could not handle criticism at N.C. State and they basically refused to play him at the end of his freshman season. Harrow is a baby and a whiner. UK isn’t the place for him. He shows no toughness or leadership. Point Guards lead the team. I thought UK looked best actually when Wiltjer was distributing the ball. Play him at point forward and UK will be alot better. Two games against Auburn and Ole Miss they went to this and worked well. I don’t know what changed?

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