An Arctic Weekend On The Way

Good Thursday and Happy Valentine’s Day. Love isn’t the only thing in the air today as the sun makes a return visit to the bluegrass state. Temps will run on the pleasant side of the thermometer as winds gust up. This is all in advance of an arctic cold front that slams in here on Friday.

That front will usher in a very wintry weekend complete with snow squalls, gusty winds and very cold temps.

I’ve been talking about the possibility of a wave of low pressure developing along this boundary. The models have been hot and cold with this possibility. The NAM is running on the hot side with the idea…

NAM

That could set us up for a round of arctic snow accumulation as we kick start the weekend. Winds will be very gusty and temps will crash late Friday afternoon and evening.

Snow showers and squalls will become common Saturday as a strong northwesterly wind continues. A couple of disturbances will dive in and give a little booster shot to the flakes. The NAM Simulated Radar shows this action kicking on early Saturday…

NAM 2

Some of those snow showers will be around again on Sunday. Highs this weekend will be in the 20s and lows will hit the teens. Winds will be very gusty, making it feel much colder.

After a spike in temps Monday, another storm system will bring wintry weather our way by Tuesday. That will also be followed by another surge of arctic air. The pattern over the next few weeks is one that can produce a major storm around here. I’m not saying it will… but it’s loaded.

Speaking of a big storm, check out this amazing video from the recent blizzard in Boston…

Have a sweet Valentine’s Day and take care.


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87 Responses to An Arctic Weekend On The Way

  1. Virgil Edwards says:

    Lets just hope that the Snow Dome remains in place and old man winter goes ahead and calls the season over.

  2. Sissy says:

    Wow awesome video, beautiful mountains!!!!!! How so they stand that type of weather. I wouldn’t last 5 minutes in that type of snow and winds. Now that’s what you call Brrrrrrrr.

  3. Cosmokramer says:

    If Arthur Miller wrote winter forecasts in Ky, it would be titled Death of a Swathman….

  4. Bobt says:

    Great. More cold rain going to hang around the region. Loaded for winter means 40 degrees and rain in Kentucky. We are the land of in between. Can’t get warm, just cold rain that won’t leave.

  5. c-BIV says:

    Now we call our snow Arctic? Haha…that has got to be the most overused word in Kentucky forecasting.
    The pattern we are in is about depressing as it gets for snow lovers the past two years. It’s pretty obvious the computer models are like the boy who cried wolf: always a major storm threat a week out and then with 24 hours or so to go, it’s an inch or less with rain mixing in or something like that. We are all to the point where it’s no longer fun to talk about possible snowstorms, as Mother Nature has numbed us all into the infamous Snow Dome!!
    We surrender!

    • BubbaG says:

      Soon Darth Bubba’s conversion of all to the Dark Side will be complete! Bow to the awesome power of The Dome! Like the Death Star, there is NO snow :) ;)

      Well, it is more like a Fence really…… Not as dramatic as The Dome, but more geometrically relevant as far as the impact on snow.

      Bow to the awesome power of The Fence!….. Nope, ain’t the same.

  6. MarkLex says:

    I keep people saying the sun is too high in the sky this time of year. If that’s the case – are you saying that we shouldn’t even consider the month of Feb winter?

  7. MarkLex says:

    reading

  8. Mike says:

    More of a great wall than a fence I would say… I can see an army of sun lovers / winter haters standing atop the cliffs overlooking the KY river (facing north of course) with their leaf blowers ready to fend off the approach of any winter system. (If I didn’t have to start work I would modify the famous Jack Nicholson speech in “A Few Good Men” … “deep down, in places you don’t talk about at parties, you want me on that wall….”)

  9. troy says:

    lol. No offense chris but the only thing “loaded” would be the person who believes there is a chance in hell that anyone in Kentucky will see a sizable snow this year. On a side note…. Happy Valentines Day to all!

  10. Tominlou says:

    Not sure why I read the blog everyday…. it’s been saying the same thing since November.

  11. Kyle says:

    Let hope it’d be a big snow storm!

    And just saw the video, all I can say is holy shoot! And also, I didn’t think that bird would have been froze to death from that storm, must be an intense one.

  12. weather blog troll says:

    Thanks, Chris. Don’t let the nattering nabobs of negativity get ya’ down.
    I’m good with some SNOW and I’m good with Spring – let’s play two!!!

  13. bjenks says:

    No negativity just plain facts….
    Models – One/Two weeks out show big storm with heavy rain on one side of the FENCE and SNOW on the other. (Just so happens most of KY has been on that ONE “33+” side) then at three days out they start to come around to the actual happenings.
    TRENDS – 15 year of them…
    I am one to hype winterthe one/two week storm and will continue to do so until spring. It is still and one of these is bound to come around and give us some snow. But remember there is always NEXT WEEK and that is one more week close to SPRING….

  14. Johnny says:

    So the beginning of the week there were talk about a possible big storm Saturday and we get nothing then throw out at the end a chance a possible Major Storm could come around here. I see a trend here.

  15. BengalFan says:

    No read or comment on awhile. But yes trend continues,,,,,Yes, the blog has the same trends, LOOK ON THE HORIZON,,,we get there, then LOOK ON THE HORIZON. we get there , then LOOK ON THE HORIZON. we get there….Were on a tour bus and were told about all the things that the map says we may see…well we NEVER see anything….I wish the announcer with the mic would just say, ok everyone go ahead and get off the bus, this years tour has been shut down the whole winter and maybe next year it will start up again. Dont keep us on the stupid bus seeing nothing!

    ARTIC!!!!! common Even if we do get what your calling for..MID 20′S ISN’T!!!! ARTIC!

    • BubbaG says:

      It’s called weather re-branding, OK! Since not much snow, the outlook gets spiced up with the term, “arctic snow”! ;) :)

  16. Andy Rose says:

    Well the noon news killed any chance of snow next week Monday rain and 48 tuesday rain and 39 thats for the Lex metro area

    • BubbaG says:

      That is the catch: Our arctic temps are for the night only and are equal to actual arctic summer air :)

      As far as rain, OF COURSE. Kentucky winter law for most mositure is 33 degrees or higher. This is as sceintifiaclly valid as ohm’s law, E=MC square, pie, quadratic equation and the 2nd law of fluid dynamics!

      Heck, the Kentucky winter law may be the 1st law of fluid dynamics! ;)

  17. NWS in Paducah mentions the gfs and euro having a storm for next Thursday. Though its outside of the long term discussion time frame, they said it was worth mentioning and would be something to watch

  18. Todd says:

    NWS out of Louisvile has interesting statement about convective snow squalls Friday for Central and east KY, would not be surprized to see WWA for tommorrow in some areas, 2 inches of snow in spots likely Friday afternoon/evening?

  19. Winter Warlock says:

    Folks I predict we will get one really nice snow…..either next winter or the winter after! Write it down as I want full credit for making the early call! Remember who you heard it from! LOL! WW

  20. Snowteach says:

    Ima need a first call on snowfall for Friday night/Saturday pretty soon please.

  21. 3789N8436W says:

    with a nod to David Byrne and the Talking Heads:
    Well we know where we’re goin’
    but we don’t know where we’ve been
    and we know what we’re knowin’
    but we can’t say what we’ve seen
    and we’re not little children
    and we know what we want
    and the future is certain
    give us time to work it out(….winter weatherwise, that is!)

    We’re on a road to nowhere
    Come on inside
    Takin’ that ride to nowhere
    We’ll take that ride (after all–wht choice do we have?!)

  22. Chris Mercer says:

    Oh, if it isn’t going to snow why not have days like this and last Thursday? Absolutely spectacular weather. 55 and sunny in Lawrenceburg, and for ONCE I am glad temps have busted on the high side (NWS had 51 for today).

    I can get used to this kind of winter weather (the kind we have had the past two years) if our snow totals are going to be meager. Especially, with that nice 5 inch snow last March.

  23. Woodsman says:

    Ended up with around 8″ yesterday, made for some gorgeous pictures this morning.

  24. Winter Warlock says:

    This is from the NWS Forecast Discussion issed at 3:41 today. Next week could be interesting and will bear watching that is for sure. WW

    Discussion
    The end of the forecast period continues to look rather interesting
    as the majority of the long term model guidance continues to show a
    very amplified pattern across North America. For the last several
    days, the models have shown that the Monday night/Tuesday system
    will move off to the northeast and stall out over southeast Canada
    near 50N/50W. With this feature there and substantial ridging
    develop to the north and west of it, it appears that we would have
    rather strong blocking pattern over the NW Atlantic. The models
    then bring a developing trough out from the western US and into the
    Plains states. How far north this system pulls poleward will be
    entirely dependent if the upper low remains over southeast Canada.
    Currently the GFS and Euro both take this Plains low and move it
    towards Chicago. Based on the upper level pattern, this does not
    look realistic, especially at the 500 hPa level with two upper level
    lows being that close together. Two scenarios will be possible for
    late next week.

    In the first one, the SE Canada upper low remains in place and keeps
    the blocking strong. This would result in the upper low across the
    Plains moving more eastward across the lower-mid Ohio Valley and
    developing a large east coast storm by next weekend. This would
    bring a threat of wintry weather to portions of the Ohio Valley
    depending on how much cold air can get in here and an outbreak of
    severe weather across the deep south states.

    The second scenario would be if the SE Canada upper low moves on off
    and into the north Atlantic resulting in less blocking. This would
    allow the current solutions to take place of pulling the upper low
    poleward and bringing warmer conditions to the Ohio Valley and
    creating more of a widespread severe weather threat from the deep
    south into the lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Nonetheless, we
    have several days to watch the system develop and adjust the
    forecasts as required.

    • Joie says:

      Thank you Winter Warlock. Sure wish there were more objective posts (and discussions) such as this one in this section.

      • BubbaG says:

        How much more objective can you get that every “next week” outlook has failed for the past two years. From a linear trend standpoint, can not get much more objective than that.

        • Joie says:

          By objective, I mean let’s discuss forecast data which is on the table and if it’s a bust, discuss why, again using data. By subjective, I mean cut the comments which add nothing but negativity to the discussion. If I were in Chris’ position, I couldn’t take the criticism and would not continue to waste my time for a bunch of unappreciative (insert swear words) for very long. Meteorology is a prediction, not a production.

          • Big Papa says:

            100% agree

          • 3789N8434W says:

            If you want what you deem ‘objective’ -go to the forecast discussions on the Jackson/Louisville NOAA site..it’s at the bottom of the page with many other topics…straight from the horses mouths and that should be more satisfactory to your needs.

          • BubbaG says:

            Nobody is being critical as much as letting some objective frustration from lack of snow and poor model outlook accuracy in a subjective manner… Oops, I guess you are right :)

            • Joie says:

              You guys are an intelligent bunch and all I’m saying is that surely you can contribute more than criticism, whining and sarcasm. With the information we get from Chris AND other professional weather services, meteorology schools at colleges, long-term weather experts, severe weather experts, NASA, meteorology books,etc., there is a whole lot available besides what the NWS mets. provide. We really have something special with Chris and this blog – be grateful. I challenge you guys to step up your game. I’ll be contributing more as soon as I muddle through my big A$$ meteorology textbook. I just finished the first chapter. . .

        • First Time Caller says:

          The only thing linear is the same old boring replies about no snow. We get it.

  25. unclesi says:

    Ol uncle si been working outside today and its been nice. Hey got my lettuce beds all ready, cleaned all the dead limbs from around the big pond ….. Smelling spring in the air If it was just a couple deg warmer I would have been out knocking golf balls around jack. Noticed no snow mentioned for Sat now ….. Did it just fizzle away? Crazy!

  26. Snowluv says:

    These models r all horrendous. It’s hard to imagine with all if today’s technology that this is what we have. These things are horrible unless u r within 24 hours of the event.

  27. Junior-From BFE says:

    Where this thure snow I Ben looking out thurw windew tryin to find me some snowe.Yall done said was goins to snow: what happin.
    Junior

  28. Go Cards says:

    As of right now I’d be more concerned for severe weather towards the end of next week rather than snow. Things will change of course in a weeks time but looking over some of the models severe weather is certainly possible.

    • Mark says:

      I noticed this chance of severe wx next week as well. Even though I don’t care for snow and even though I like the dynamics of severe wx, this is a time in which I would not mind the snow considering my area (Nashville) has only recorded an inch even of the white stuff. Of course, nobody wants threats to lives and property from severe wx, but looks like somewhere likely will get the severe wx next week. Either the deep south gets severe wx and we get snow, or we also could get severe wx.

      • Mark says:

        We are just two weeks and two days from the first anniversary of the March 2 2012 outbreak that included the West Liberty KY, Saylorsville KY and Henryville IN tornadoes.

  29. which way is the wind blowing says:

    Could you imagine at this moment in time if John Belski was holding his guess the snow accumulation contest for a snow event. The participants would be guessing a quarter of an inch or less. An inch would be on the high side

  30. Junior-From BFE says:

    Junior ahgain anywon no if its goin tuh snowe twomorow? I caint find out anywhures
    Thanks for help,
    Junior

  31. Cosmokramer says:

    Check out the dramatic titles of the last 5 posts here on Ky-Nether Center…..arctic this, wintry that, Nam vs. GFS, Winter Weather Advisory…..Yada, Yada, Yada….blah, blah,blah….we’ve been there, but haven’t done that….Yawn…

  32. Ben in Lexington says:

    It is a weather blog and it is winter. What do you expect,recipes and hockey scores?

  33. Go Cards says:

    Louisville won. Russ Smith showed up and played well tonight. Why we were playing St.John’s during rivalry week? I have no idea. Marquette or Cincinatti are our rivals. ESPN is a joke.

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