A Busy Week Ahead

Good Sunday, friends. Our weekend is wrapping up on a cold note as gusty northwesterly winds continue to crank. These winds have produced snow showers and squalls over the past few days, but that action ends early today. That doesn’t mean we won’t have stuff to track as we have a busy week of weather ahead of us.

Temps today will range from 30 in the north and east to 40 in the far west. Some sunshine will fill the air.

A milder wind will blow for Monday as a storm develops across the plains and works toward the Great Lakes. Temps will head toward the low and middle 50s as clouds increase from west to east. Those clouds will eventually produce widespread rain Monday night as a strong cold front moves in.

Cold air crashes in behind the front for late Monday night into Tuesday morning. That will change the rain over to a period of light snow.

GFS 2That could put down some minor accumulations before all is said and done. Winds are going to howl and temps Tuesday will fall through the 30s.

Even colder air will move in for Wednesday as temps stay below freezing for some areas.

The next storm moves in by the end of the week and that one is likely to be windy and messy. More on that in the coming days.

To illustrate how this colder than normal pattern is likely to persist a while, check out the GFS Ensemble Temp Anomaly Forecast…GFS

That gets smoothed out the farther out in time you go, but the colder than normal trend is clear. This will also be a very active period with several storms working across the country. This is the type of pattern that produces late season major winter storms around here. Here’s hoping this pattern is a underachiever, so we can hurry on into spring. )

Have a great Sunday and take care.


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57 Responses to A Busy Week Ahead

  1. Israel says:

    The NWS CPC is trending warmer than normal for the 8-14 day outlook. I’m ready for spring! :)

    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/index.php

  2. Snowluv says:

    Doesn’t matter what pattern we r in, even in the colder pattern it’s just a few flurries here and there. If any real storm worth mentioning then it moves north and we get rain and breaks that cold pattern. I’ve given up bring on spring and insects.

  3. Andy Rose says:

    Doesn’t make much sense to hope for something that has been a fact the last 2 winters.

  4. Marie says:

    Bring on spring! I was in and out all day yesterday in the cold and it was miserable!

  5. Coffeady says:

    Thanks, Chris for the update. Looks like an interesting week weather wise. I am slowly going into spring mode, but it will really hit me when DST kicks in. As for the cold, well It is still mid February, so it is supposed to be cold. No complaints from me there as it is actually acting more normal temp wise. If it does decide to snow, well that would be alright with me, too. Either way, the week in weather will be interesting. Have a great Sunday, everyone.

    • Cosmokramer says:

      Interesting? As in gets one’s attention?

      Or interesting? As in this is really going to be bland and I have to reply with something? :)

      ‘Cause this forecast looks anything but interesting. :)

  6. Cosmokramer says:

    Anyone notice, “spring” being the last word in Mr. Bailey’s posts? I fear he has gone over to the MECK SIDE for this year.

    Gusty winds, messy, smoothed out, underachiever…..these forecasts belong in Winnie the Pooh and the Blustery Day. Oh bother….silly old bear.

  7. Mike says:

    Another disappointing week came to an end. Two chances of snow, of course – both were “week aways” – that ended with nothing more than a few flakes in the air. Seems like my part of Richmond will finish up with 2 inches total for the year. so for my part of Richmond anyway…
    9 – 8 – 28 (9 years, never more than 8 inches in any one year, 28 total for the 9 years).

    The models definitely need some work. They just don’t seem to take their own track record into account as they continue to pump out “week aways” that have never worked out.

    • BubbaG says:

      If they would under estimate a snow event a few times it would make be logical for variability, but the models over state every time. That seems obviously biased, so suggests something is wrong. To always be on one side makes zero sense. The uncanny thing is it always seems for this region, which tells me something is not being accounted for in the model efforts and not apparent regression analysis to figure out what it is.

      Worth noting that mets in general have not been forecasting much snow, so partly a perception issue with bloggers banking on lofty outlooks. I do notice though that most met forecasts for snow have been inaccurate for south of the river. If my forecasts and plans could be off by similar degrees, I would be a happy camper. The company would not be though.

  8. Cole in McCreary says:

    What do you all think about the TWC report on the American GFS falling behind the other weather models. 5 years before it will be upgraded?
    I know the weather is changing it seems, we have only had about 1 inch of snow so far this whole winter. Thanks Chris for your time for us weather weenies!

  9. rolo says:

    im still waiting on the ARTIC OUTBREAK and winter weather mid febuaray thru first of march.

    thast said glad we are not seeing any that as let there be WARMTH.

    but I have to point out 18 to 25 degree lows and uppers 30s low 40s IS NOT ARTIC AIR . not being a rear end hole just pointing out what was forcasted week or so ago in ever post her on the blog.

  10. TONEY says:

    how can you be going into spring mode when we still have a third of the winter left……march 21st….calendar and with that said……even in you winter forecast back in november you said that the winter would be back end weight meaning the most snow in the 2nd half of winter…..march and even april for that matter has produced some mighty big snow storms around here……..sounds like you are going against the grain of your own words or could it be that this was another busted forecast for the winter just as last year was……..just wondering.

    • Joey Wilson says:

      We had a 12″ heavy wet snow in Owensboro March 19th of 2006 but those are rare any time much less in the middle of March.

      Chris, thanks for all you do and your dedication to this site. I’m sure it gets old reading the negative comments after you put so much work into this site.

      I’m once again putting this winter into the category of “disappointing.” We had a handful of “chances” but little to show for it. Other than the Blizzard Warning we had for the Christmas night storm, there’s been very little excitement. At least being under a BW was “exciting” for a weather weenie like me. Of course, it only gave me an inch in my backyard. Oh well.

  11. Which Way Is the Wind Blowing says:

    I made a major mistake I did not use the copy and paste method before posting comments. I am not going to go back and write a long diatribe about how I feel about this winter.

  12. Todd says:

    February has failed so far with all the lofty cold and snow predictions from a few weeks ago, ever weather outlet forecast cold and snowy period for the eastern US?? New England area and the far north have been the only true winter like areas!

  13. Todd says:

    reading the NWS out Louisville discussion this morning, their saying a interesting week coming? OK, then when continue reading it says rain Monday nite might end as flurries, then they say Thursday storm might start as a mix before going quickly to rain!

    What I find interesting is, why is this interesting?? Sounds like the same old bland ky winter we have had for 2 years!

  14. Snowluv says:

    I think the entire winter forecast has been a bust everywhere considering all the blogs and outlets I read on all the blocking strat warming etc and how that was going to lead to cold and snow.
    Other than the blizzard in the ne I really don’t recall much major snow anywhere. Or at least anything more than avg

    • MarkLex says:

      Very good point……

      I’ve know someone who lives in Iowa who loves snow, and while they have had snow, he’s not happy at all because it hasn’t been that much considering where they live……..

      What I don’t understand about it is how some areas that are no where near close to bodies of water get huge snows. I mean, the northeast gets snows from the Atlantic……It makes you wonder how places like North Dakota get huge snows and bitter bitter cold at the same time. when they don’t even get rain in a year to begin with. You would think it would be VIRGA city!

      • MarkLex says:

        Much rain

      • Snowluv says:

        Exactly. Would be interesting to see the final numbers in snow and temps for the country after some people like joe badtardi have been saying global warming is a hoax and in fact the world is cooling instead. All that blah blah blah and it is the same ole for the most part

  15. Bobt says:

    To the comment about CB predicting a back end winter and that we are looking at maybe the worst part of winter still to come. A back end winter obviously meant worst weather coming mid-January and early Feb. Just not much in the Nov. and December time. Average temps for mid-February is 50 degree highs and climbing. I really don’t think Chris was banking on us waiting for all of our snow in March. It could happen, but it’s very hard to get the cold air in here for anything substantial this time of year. Had some big snows in the past, but temps are against you on most days. I wouldn’t think to many professional forecasters putting all of their cards on March and April snows. Even if we do get one, it’s going to be 50+ degrees a day or two after.

  16. Snowluv says:

    Doesn’t matter when or where.
    Winter was a BIG no show. Unless u enjoy a flurry or two on that back side of a occasional cold front. In the end the numbers don’t lie and I think a lot of forecasters (not saying Chris so don’t everyone get upset) that I follow have once again been way off this year.

  17. BubbaG says:

    “A milder wind will blow for Monday as a storm develops across the plains and works toward the Great Lakes. Temps will head toward the low and middle 50s as clouds increase from west to east. Those clouds will eventually produce widespread rain Monday night as a strong cold front moves in.

    Cold air crashes in behind the front for late Monday night into Tuesday morning. That will change the rain over to a period of light snow.”

    Seems this is our Kentucky winter 33 degree law via CB.

    • Todd says:

      Yep the law is working flawlessly, warm rain, then cold maybe flurries, Thursday warm rain, Friday drying and colder! Their are some things set in stone about our sad winters!

  18. MikeM says:

    This is part of yesterdays post.
    That’s a pretty good shot of cold moving in behind that storm and will be in place when the next storm rolls our way by Thursday.
    What defines cold air these days. It must be 45 degrees because thats what is forecast for thursday. That would make sense because anything below 30 degrees is now called an arctic blast.

  19. E-TownKY says:

    Hope I’m not out of line posting something from another Met, but y’all should go over to theLouisville wave 3 weather page on Facebook and take a look at Brian Goode’s video blog. He does a great job on explaining about the pattern and how there will be a change in the coming weeks. Not far from Chris’s thoughts here but explains a bit more in depth.

  20. Todd says:

    The sky must be falling when UK loses to Tenn by 30, Bright side cats fans #2 duke lost to Maryland a team that KY beat this year!

    May as well talk sports, nothing to see here weather wise!

  21. Virgil Edwards says:

    SPRING BABY!!!! Bring it on the warmth, the longer daylight, the Blooms, the Thunderstorms… BRING IT ON!!

  22. Pat says:

    Is it just me, or do any of you listen to mother nature? It’s low 30′s outside right now, but the birds are singing, the Robins have returned and the skunks are having a field day right now. On my way to Richmond each morning the stink is becoming more and more noticable. Sure we may have another snow or two if that’s what you want to call it, but Gods animals are saying spring is very close. Computors are only as good as the info you put into it. There is a good reason for what is going on with our weather, but most don’t want to admit that global warming has anything to do with it. When your condo is under water in Florida maybe you will pay attention then. This has everything to do with our weather and will for years to come.

  23. Lincoln says:

    This year has bit Calipari in the a**, Willy Cauley Stein a first round draft pick. HA I call BS, I don’t think these players are NBA quality yet. Noel, yes. Everyone else, no..And Goodwin needs to transfer.

  24. Joie says:

    Anyone else watch NOVA’s “Earth From Space” today? I thought it was fascinating. Worth watching online if you didn’t see it.

    http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/space/earth-from-space.html

  25. Cosmokramer says:

    Ditto to this winter and Calipari comments…

    • BubbaG says:

      UK won the championship last year, so we can not have our cake at eat it too. The diminished return curve had to bottom out with all the players that went to the NBA and graduating.

      The key is for Cal to bring a 50/50 mix of one timers and three/four year players. That is how they won last year and the lack of mix is why they will be lucky to even get a chance of the tourney this year.

      • BubbaG says:

        Point being, a bottom-out sees inevitable, but I though bottom-out was perhaps losing in the second or third round of the NCAA Tournament.

        Never expected this apparent implosion, but some of these kids appear to be self centered.

  26. Mr. Blue Sky says:

    I see the fellowship of the miserable is still here… smh

  27. disappointed says:

    When winter forecast kicks your butt, wish for spring. :) . Lets start talking about the next warm pattern showing up instead of cold.

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