A Lot Of Winter On The Way

Good Sunday, everyone. Our weekend is wrapping up on one heck of a weather note with sunshine and temps surging toward 50. Make sure you go outside and soak it up because we have a big time stretch of winter weather ahead of us.

A big storm will crank across the plains state on Monday. This will bring another blizzard to areas that were hammered by a blizzard a few days ago. Gusty southwesterly winds will blow clouds into our region by Monday as temps hit the low 50s. Late day showers and thunderstorms will develop from southwest to northeast.

This storm will be a major wind maker around here with gusts of 40-50mph possible Monday night and Tuesday. That’s when this storm pushes into the Ohio Valley and sends our temps on a downward slide. Heavy rain will mix with some snow later in the day as our temps crash. Here’s the GFS on Tuesday Morning…

GFS 3

That will set the stage for an extended period of very cold air and snow for the entire region as a mega trough develops across the eastern half of the country. An upper level low will park itself just to our northeast and this will funnel moisture in from the northwest…

GFS 4

That’s a lot of wind to go along with the cold and snow. There is an increasing potential to put a few to several inches of snow on the ground for the middle and end of the week. Additional snow and even colder air is likely for next weekend. As a matter of fact… flakes may fly as far south as FLORIDA. Wait… what? Yep.

If you’re looking for an end to this pattern… it simply isn’t showing up through the first few weeks of March. Check out the average 850mb temp departures…

GFS 2Keep in mind… those are the average temps for the period and those get smoothed out the farther out in time we go. Moral of the story… a very cold March is on the way.

I will have another update later today. Have a great Sunday and take care.


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23 Responses to A Lot Of Winter On The Way

  1. Israel says:

    I’ve been reading other blogs and the NWS forecast discussion and everyone is talking about this pattern. The Omega blocking pattern is setting up with the AO, NAO negative and the PNA positive with large trough setting up is crazy and should bring us something. Would be VERY SURPRISED to see no storm of more 2in at least. (Lex. area) then again, don’t get your hopes up this “winter.” Check out the NWS CPC temp outlook showing much below normal temps with very dark blue.

    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/index.php

  2. bjenks says:

    Meh….Bring on spring…Unless there is a storm to break the trend and give us and old school dumping then I just want spring. To late in the season to start a long cold spell. This is Jan / Feb weather not Feb / March.

    I will say CB did say a while back the this winter would be back end loaded. HHHMMMM….Thanks CB for the update. Have a great Sunday everyone.

  3. Weatherdadof2 says:

    Sounds great! But, do we have to go to Florida to see snow this year?

  4. Joey Wilson says:

    Interesting trend. Once again, the NWS and Chris seem “at odds” over snow potential this week. Neither Paducah or Louisville NWS discussions this morning talk about anything but light precip this week. Chris has been right before and hope he is this week too.

  5. Bobt says:

    I think I’m going to move, and it won’t be north. I like a good snow as good as anyone else, but I’m not into prolonging a miserable wet 40 degree winter into spring. I guess I would be okay with it if January wasn’t a month of 40 degree rains and floods. We finally get to the time of the year when it is supposed to warm up and it decides to turn cold. Boooooooo………….

  6. Marie says:

    Yuck, bring on spring! Not looking forward to howling winds. Dislike windy days very much.

  7. Sissy says:

    Thank you Chris for a great job you do. I always read your weather blog daily. I’m traveling to Cincinnati Ohio, Tuesday evening thank you for the update. I will monitor your blog even more closely traveling. Thanks great job.

  8. Todd says:

    Well the ground hog was wrong again, that little furry freak should stay in is hole and never come out!

  9. Jeff Hamlin says:

    I have to chuckle when people say, “BRING ON SPRING!”

    It will get here when it gets here. Be thankful you are even alive to enjoy it.

  10. Mark says:

    Severe wx outlook:

    http://ovwn.blogspot.com/2013/02/2013-springsevere-weather-outlooks.html

    While long range predictions can be fickle (as busted outlooks for the last two winter seasons have shown), indications are of an active spring severe wx season for our area.

    Now is the time to check that your weather alert radios and other warning devices are in good working order. Know tornado safety rules (especially to abandon mobile homes for much stronger shelters).

    Consider becoming a storm spotter for the NWS in your area like I have. For example, here’s NWS Louisville’s spotter page:
    http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lmk/?n=skywarnprogram
    NWS offices in Nashville, Morristown TN, Paducah, Jackson KY, Wilmington OH, Charleston WV, etc have similar programs.

  11. KeavyMan01 says:

    Loving this beautiful weather. Home healing and just love seeing the sun shining. Took a walk around the yard yesterday and seen tulips up, daffodil up, among other flowers being out of the ground. Heck, even the rose bushes has light green leaves on them now. I miss winter but if I have to, give me spring. Would love to see at least 1 snow bigger than 1/2″! LOL Yes, Keavy is in spring mode and nothing I can do about it.

    BRING ON THE SUN AND WARMTH!!

  12. Todd says:

    A nice average late winter day here in Frankfort, the sun is nice but still a little chill in the air temp 43. I think average for Frankfort is 48 now.

    Everyone’s ready for spring but as Chris said looks like real warm weather is going to be put on hold for several weeks??

  13. MikeM says:

    If it’s a decent snow I don’t mind waiting a little longer for spring. The problem is I haven’t seen one in my area for 15 years so not really giving next week much hope. But the blind squirrel eventually finds a nut.

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