Old Man Winter Ready To Return

Good Monday to one and all. Our new week is off and running on a pleasant note with some sun and mild temps out there today. This is not a harbinger of things to come as things turn very busy around here. Old Man Winter is plotting a big comeback with a prolonged period of cold and snow.

Temps today will head toward the low 50s with a mix of sun and clouds. Winds will pick up during the day as a massive storm develops to our southwest. This will bring a shutdown blizzard to parts of Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas and Missouri over the next 24 hours. Some of these same areas were in the 60s over the weekend.

That storm will roll our way on Tuesday and bring widespread rain, thunderstorms and high wind. Gusts late tonight and Tuesday will exceed 40mph at times. Temps will be in the 50s early Tuesday, before the cold air crashes in from southwest to northeast…

NAM 1The cold air will continue to filter in here Tuesday night and Wednesday as a northwesterly flow becomes established. Snow showers and snow squalls will be very common from that point into the coming weekend. These will get periodic boosts from energy dropping in here on that same northwesterly wind.

Add it all up and you can get accumulating snow across much of our region. A few to several inches will be possible during this prolonged stretch. That’s not all coming at once, but an aggregate total over a several day run.Temps will be WELL BELOW normal as we close out the month and head into February. Normals are right at 50 degrees for highs and we will have several days where we struggle to get past 32 degrees.

Folks, this is a frigid look…

GFS GFS 2

You think it ends there? Take a look at the middle of NEXT week…

GFS 3

Don’t put away the winter weather gear, just yet. You will get more mileage out of it over the next few weeks than you have for most of the past few months.

Have a great Monday and take care.


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52 Responses to Old Man Winter Ready To Return

  1. Zachary Newman says:

    Thanks so much, Chris!

  2. ready4spring says:

    Yuck. Another disappointing winter has me more than ready for Spring. It just figures that good ol’ Mother Nature decides to sock up with some more cold and snow before we can get to the nice weather. I am SO ready for sun and sandals!! Thanks Chris for the update… I just wish you had better news for us! ;)

  3. Andy Rose says:

    I see nothing to get excited about its going to be the same as every other system that has came through. A strong system comes through brings rain then gets cold and flurries for 3 days to bring a whopping half inch total of snow if that

    • Festus says:

      I need to know Chris’ definition of “few” and “several”. Also, I agree with Andy. I see rain, a coating, then it gets melted by the high angle of the sun in just a couple hours. Then repeat the same process again.

  4. Cosmokramer says:

    I’m not falling for it again…if it happens, great….but I’m not putting any eggs at all in this basket……too many times this winter we all have had egg on our faces….Maybe Mr. Bailey can bring this one home and fry it in the pan, but old Cosmo ain’t eatin’ what’s being dished out. :)

    Not that I don’t appreciate the chef, but he’s been more like a good cook this year…..the ingredients haven’t been there for him to work with. ;)

    • Lisa in Donkey Holler says:

      So why on earth do you keep coming to the table?!?!?!?

      • Snowteach says:

        Good question! I’m tired of it all too, but I keep coming to the table. ADDICTION is a terrible thing. Maybe I should NOT make CB’s blog the opening page on my computer…

      • Cosmokramer says:

        Only ppl that sit in the amen corner are allowed….I see….you may want to re-read my post….not blaming the weatherman, just the conditions he has had to work with….don’t go all Ackerman on us, Donkey Holler.

  5. RCombs says:

    Can we get a first call please?

  6. Bobt says:

    Post should be titled Old Man Winter Finally Show Up (too late for my liking). So Texas gets blizzard and we get a rain with leftover snow again. Bring on Spring. Misery continues. Not worth missing out on 50+ weather for a few inches of snow.

  7. bjenks says:

    Wow that is a large area of cold air. If this was mid January we would be in a deep deep freeze. Southern systems will be cranking up over the next couple of weeks. Will one of these give us a decent snow that last all of a day. Brian Goode (WAVE3) Lou. made a statement on his video blog that Lou. would equal their current snow total of 8 inches before the winter is over. Not holding my breath. This has been the season of teases for us along the Ohio River.
    I hope all the models are wrong and we get the opposite of what they are showing. I am ready for SPRING and STORMS…..
    MEH….to this winter…..Have a good day!!!

  8. Joey Wilson says:

    Anyone wanna complain some more? Geesh

  9. KP says:

    Do these snow chances go through Saturday? I will have over 3 hours of driving with two little poodles who have their own chiropractor in Alexandria. I don’t want to drive on hilly and winding roads in blowing snow. I would do it if it was only me in the car, but we don’t endanger our little poodles. That is the law of the land at my house.
    Thanks for any input because Dr. Chiropractor requires advance notice to cancel and appointment. He is booked solid all the time.

    • prelude says:

      Even if it does the temps will be above freezing roads will be fine especially in the day.

    • which way is the wind blowing says:

      Nobody can give you guarantees a week out. It’s hard to predict what time of the day a snow shower will be in action. The best bet is look at the radar before leaving the house. I am sure your vet will sympathize with your predicament if the weather is Armageddon.

      • KP says:

        Thanks prelude and which way is the wind blowing. I have until Friday morning to cancel so I will wait. Forecast from various sources vary wildly. WKYT has a high of 29 for Saturday.

  10. Juniors Wife-From BFE says:

    Hoe man, me
    N Rolo goin go Icey fishinr. You ready moo, he haw!!!!

  11. Wes says:

    NWS highs for Harlan for Thursday and Friday…37 and 38…cold rain…

  12. unclesi says:

    hey since when is the avg temp in Ky for Feb around 50 ? that’s crazy … Feb is usually the coldest month …. maybe average 40 but sure not 50 ….. no other mets saying anything about snow around here jack ………..

    • Dara says:

      Not true…..this is from the NWS Jackson(not meant to be rude by the way):

      Snow Chances Return Wednesday Night Into Next Weekend
      A weather disturbance will drop southeast across eastern Kentucky Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Precipitation is expected to start as rain late Wednesday, then mix with and change to snow Wednesday night. Some light snow accumulations are possible. With low temperatures Thursday morning expected below freezing, slippery conditions could exist for morning commuters. Stay tuned for additional details in the coming days. With cold air over the region and upslope flow into the higher terrain of east Kentucky, snow showers will remain possible into next weekend.

    • Chris Mercer says:

      THE LEXINGTON KY CLIMATE NORMALS FOR TODAY
      NORMAL RECORD YEAR
      MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (F) 49 74 2000
      MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (F) 31 -4 1900

    • Mark says:

      If one averages all Feb days together, that may be one thing. But the average temps for individual Feb days at the end of Feb are significantly higher than for days at the beginning of the month. As pointed out, Lexington’s average high on this date (late Feb) is on the verge of cracking 50 (this is from NWS Louisville’s website). Louisville’s average high is currently 51. Nashville’s is 55.

      Average temps tend to bottom out roughly during the third week in January, then start rising after that.

      Exactly six months later, the reverse happens as well. Average temps tend to plateau roughly during the third week of July then gradually start to fall.

  13. Wes says:

    This does not seem to be a big snow maker…from what the NWS is forecasting it looks to be small chances at light accumulations…

  14. Coach foley says:

    I think Chris is the best weather man around.but I have lived most of my life in KY.and this state has never been one that has alot of snow every winter.Kentucky has had a few major stroms in its history.with all the gripping you may just get more than you want before March is up!!chris can t make it snow but he does a good job giving us a heads up on things to come.what is they say about KY. Stay around if you don t like the weather it’s kentucky it’s about to change

  15. 3789N8436W says:

    I am SO excited….Chris said, “Temps will be WELL BELOW normal as we close out the month and head into February.” We get another month of February but is it the ‘Ground Hog’ February or a new shot at a February with a better potential for wintry output!? These metaphysical boundaries are amazing.

  16. Todd says:

    These Texas panhandle snowstorms use to bring ky heavy snows every now an then, but now it seems they all turn do north and cut into the lakes, just the ugly pattern we are stuck in I guess, 2 blizzards in a week to the west of us and more of the same blaa weather here!

    Cold and mostly dry after Tuesday guaranteed!

  17. prelude says:

    As of 8:30 this morning the Amarillo TX NWS office has over 13 inches of snow 2 to 3 foot snow drifts and winds gusting over 58 mph. NWS out of Amarillo is calling this a crippling blizzard from them. Its almost noon here and 11am in Amarillo close to 16 maybe 17 inches of snow Amarillo has legit shot in breaking there all time single day snow totals. I believe its a little over 20 inches is the snowiest 24 hr period in Amarillo, looks like they should easily break that record. Looking at Amarillo traffic cameras all complete whiteouts.

  18. Todd says:

    Micha Harris at noon just said minor accumulations at most this week while Chris says several inches of snow possible, Gotta love when the guys that work for the same station contradict each others snow possibilities??

    • unclesi says:

      exactly right …… the same forecast for my area from the First Alert Defender says nothing, nada, zero, zilch about snow and giving temps upper 30′s to low 40′s … hey why the difference man ……….. looking at the accuweather long range, temps in upper 40′s and 50′s …. so why say the ‘artic’ air going to be around for week …. that’s just bs jack !!

  19. Lincoln says:

    A good example of kentucky being relatively snowless state would be the glacial line. We couldn’t even win 20,000 years ago!

  20. Wes says:

    Phil Collins…I Wish It Would Rain Down…that has been the theme this winter…NWS still giving rain/snow…temps 35 or higher during the day.

  21. Wes says:

    I’m not crazy…well that can be debated…LOL

    Wednesday Night: Rain and snow showers likely, becoming all snow after 11pm. Cloudy, with a low around 30. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

    Thursday: Snow showers likely before 2pm, then a chance of rain and snow showers. Cloudy, with a high near 35. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

    Thursday Night: A 40 percent chance of snow showers. Cloudy, with a low around 27.

    Friday: A chance of rain and snow showers. Cloudy, with a high near 36. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

    Friday Night: A 30 percent chance of snow showers. Cloudy, with a low around 25.

  22. KRinRichmond says:

    So far, at 210pm, the temps are a bust. 44*?? where’s the dang 50′s?? Sick of cold temps. It’s darn near March, come on spring.

  23. Todd says:

    Up to 50 in Frankfort, hoping for 55 today, and hoping long range models are wrong about the colder weather! This snow fan is done for this winter!

  24. Tom N Lincoln says:

    Its pretty sad when Texas and Arizona can get big snows, and we have to beg for an inch around here. Bring on Spring, I’m sick and tired of this crap we call winter in Ky.

  25. Ready4Snow says:

    Latest runs of Euro and now GFS sure are showing signs of a wild early March…I predict a major storm early March either East,West,north or South of Ky…As usual we will be left on the outside looking in…Probably chilly and dry next week as low pressure forms and will likely cutoff and crawl up the East coast giving someone a monster storm…Events are not the view of KWC and its sponsor and some of the snow deprived folks of Ky….

    • Mark says:

      If per chance there’s a storm that even somewhat approaches the magnitude of the great Blizzard of 1993, that might be very appropriate considering this March 13th will be the 20th anniversary of the 93 storm.

      Anyway, I was a pre-teen in east Tennessee in 1993. I will remember that snowstorm even if I live to be 100. It sure perked my interest in weather.

      • MarkLex says:

        Ah! Good catch!

        I didn’t realize it had been 20 years!

        Ahhh. I remember being in Brevard , NC and walking across the parking lot in my apartment complex in a complete white out walking to a friends house to stay with them and dropped my keys . Never found them…..To think that was 20 years ago. I was 21 yrs old.

      • troy says:

        I was living in East Tennessee (Morristown, just east of Knoxville) during that storm and I will never forget it either. 15″ of beautiful wet snow. I still remember the big story out of that storm…..hundreds of motorists stranded on I-75 between Chattanooga and Atlanta. A good deal of those folks were air lifted from the vicinity of there vehicles and put up in hotels in the area. Now that was a bad one for some folks and the last major storm since. Year after year, the snow totals have dwindled for both TN and KY to the near nothing snow “showers” that we get today.

        • Mark says:

          Hey, my family and I were in Morristown, too! On the west side of town, not far from the airport and where NWS Morristown is now located. Perhaps we have unknowingly crossed paths!

          I was nine during the storm. Must had been challenging to get that 15 inch measurement, as I saw a drift that was nearly to window level. I’ll won’t forget looking inside a neighbor’s garage; the aging door (for the car) was slightly warped so one side had a few millimeters gap between door bottom and concrete. Despite this tiny gap, a sizable mound of snow had piled up inside the closed garage!

          We later moved to the Chattanooga/Cleveland TN area (I’m currently in Nashville). My Kentucky connection is that I lived in Bowling Green while attending WKU.

        • Mark says:

          Chattanooga and Atlanta both had heavy snow in January 2011 (my parents still live near Chattanooga). Still, hard pressed to remember any big snows in this area between 1993 and 2011.

  26. MarkLex says:

    At least Tulsa can share in our pain. Just to their northwest they miss out on a huge snow. Okla City not doing so well either!

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