Good Saturday afternoon. I’ve decided to go ahead and put out the Winter Storm Threat for Sunday and early Monday. The latest data points to the possibility of a farther southward tracking band of heavy snow and that is likely to have a high impact on our weather during this time.
A THREAT means some areas have the possibility of getting 4″ or more of snow from Sunday into Monday. If my confidence level rises… we will upgrade to an Alert later tonight.
Here’s the latest 4″+ snow risk area…
As you can see, I have pushed everything farther south. This is not set in stone and I will continue to watch the latest trends through the rest of the day to see how this thing sets up. But, the northern half of the state is in the game for the POSSIBILITY of a late season snowstorm.
Updates as needed and I will also update my Chris Bailey WKYT Facebook page. Go give it a like.
Take care.
If its going to snow, bring it far enough south to get us all or tell old man Winter to keep it north and we will take sunshine! 😉 Thanks, Chris. Maybe this will be the last one.
So what are we looking at inch-wise for SEKY?
0
that would be a big giant goose egg.
Threat Mode = Teaser mode
No offense Chris. I-64 , aka the fence, just seems to be a meteorological anamoly in regards to its ability to block snow. It should be factored into the models algorithms.
Wow! That change put me right in the middle of the Moderate Risk zone. I gotta say that I’m surprised. I thought it was staying north.
Well at least we are consistent Cold cold rain
You will have snow on the ground there Monday and Tuesday. 😉
There ya go Chris, get the haters!
Who is hating? stating facts
I agree with you Andy. If it wasn’t for the cold cold rain we have had, we would have had NOTHING!
Andys no hater. He’s a snow lover who gets no snow.
I hope you are right. I am seriously missing the snow.
Lots of time left for changes BUT this could be a great surprise late season snow for lots of KY! Definitely would be the latest heavy snow I can remember.
Well we earned it,if it does come. I hope it keeps trending south where everybody who loves snow can get into the action. Watch out Bubba your years of misery is coming to an end.
Bubbas married with kids. His misery will never end.
🙂 …….. 🙁 ……….. 😉
All in good fun. 🙂
GFS thru noon tues. http://204.2.104.196/gfs/WINTER_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_72HR.gif
I do not think it’s going to happen. but Louisville and Oldham County are sitting in a nice sweet spot.
Lets hope we get some snow here in the Ville! My birthday wish for the weekend! :o)
Well, looks like Perryville will get….nothing. I could use just one more snow day!
NWS throwing out the further track GFS saying it is out to lunch, so the battle is on, will the trend continue or is Chris going to nail them on this one with southward thinking????
Nws out of Louisville is not discounting the gfs model so to say its the WPC discussion thinks its a garbage run you almost have to agree thats a sizeable shift to the south.
NWS Paducah isn’t discounting it either.
Winter Storm Watches up for the higher elevations of Southwest Virginia and Northeast Tennessee through Tuesday. 4-8″ possible with 6-12″ above 3500 feet.
The nam might of shifted south by a tad but nothing at all compared to what the gfs did. I guess will wait and see what the 18zgfs thinks
FWIW I remember J.Belski commenting that you really cannot get an accurate tracking of a low until it crosses the Rockies. Maybe that is what has happen this time.
Anyway, it seems the track of lows this winter have deviated slightly south than the original forecast 24 to 30 hours out.
All I can say is this….don’t waste your time even looking at the NAM as it can barely forecast 6 hours out with any accuracy. On the other hand, the GFS is “fairly” accurate 36-48 hours out. Even still, haven said this, the ONLY model to put any faith into is the Euro, wonder what it’s saying about all this…..
http://sphotos-b.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ash4/208961_503157713064825_372706989_n.jpg
12z Euro
Me, I’m always ready fo 80 + gegrees year round. The wife teaches in Fayette and she wants one or two more snow days before summer kicks in. I say summer because I don’t think we are going to have a spring! If I had my wish it would be 80 year round. On another note, Chris, maybe you should not even say anything about the snow like some guy named Meck and let the disbeliever’s get one heck of a surprise. Then again they would say things because you DIDN’T say anything! Sometimes it’s a no win situation.
After 8 years of experience: “I don’t believe any of it.”
I will only believe AFTER I have seen it. The models are just a waste of energy on our part. I have NEVER seen a model showing more than 4 inches of snow panning out.
about 24 hours out and the models are still struggling with this snow forecast? Anywhere but KY it would be set in stone by now!
It’s not set in stone anywhere in the east yet. It’s going to be based on temperatures.
It isn’t set in stone for the north either. Really the only area this is set in stone for is somewhere to the west of us.
We are getting to the time of year where it is rare to even be in the discussion for a 4 inch plus snowfall (that is the NWS definition of a significant snowfall for Central KY).
Here are single-day snowfalls of 4 inches or more that have happened on or later than March 24:
9.5” March 27, 1947
6.0”’ May 20, 1894
4.8” April 4, 1987
That’s it.
That April snowfall was much heavier in SE Kentucky if my memory is right.
There was one in the 1970s in late march in Frankfort of atleast 6 inches, remember it well, just not the year?
Lexington/Frankfort had over 7 inches of snow on this date in 1968. Maybe that was it?
April 1987 was close 2 feet in clay county.
1987 MANCHESTER KY we had 22 inches on ground in my yard, it was a sharp cutoff if i remember right,
BAILEY gave the 1987 storm a PLUG on last nite WEATHER!! it pump me up when he talk bout the 1987 april 1st storm..
so BAILEY is reading the blog!!
tell; u latest runs of models keep showing more and more snow for ALL AREAS.
im seeing 2-4 inches possible in SE KY from this battle. 2-3 be fine as that would bother no eltric, bwe a quick pretty snow for this time year..
Sup rolo. Glad to see ya around blog.