Watching The Severe Weather Threat

Good Wednesday, everyone. In keeping with the theme of “extreme is the new normal”… record high temps may fall across parts of the state today. Don’t get too used to it as a big shot of chill moves in by Friday. Going from near record warmth to chilly air is never a good thing in the springtime and usually means severe weather is the buffer.

That severe weather threat will get going late today in the west and roll eastward across the bluegrass state on Thursday. This is all ahead of a powerful storm bringing a blizzard to parts of the plains states. An area of low pressure will move toward the northern Ohio Valley on Thursday and will drag a strong cold front through here. That means a line of strong and severe thunderstorms is a very real possibility.

The High Resolution NAM Simulated Radar shows the progress of the storms…

NAM 1Damaging winds appear to be the greatest threat.

Here’s what today’s severe weather outlook from the Storm Prediction Center looks like…
Latest Day 1 convective outlook

That threat then moves into central and eastern Kentucky for Thursday…

Here’s all you need to track the storms working in from the west today…

Current Watches
Current Watches

Possible Watch Areas
Current MDs

Track the storms here…

I will have updates as needed and will send out quick thoughts via twitter: Kentuckyweather or follow along in the twitter feed on the right side of the blog. I will also have updates on my Chris Bailey WKYT Facebook page.

Have a great Wednesday and take care.

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12 Responses to Watching The Severe Weather Threat

  1. Virgil Edwards says:

    You know I was going to roll off with a rant about the useless ness of complaining about Severe Weather but Im biting my tongue here and just going to say, Be Prepared, Respect mother nature, and heed the warnings of people like Chris and the NWS.. Because lets be real here… That is all you can do.

  2. Mark says:

    Thanks Chris.

    As Chris touched on, strong destructive winds will be the threat with the highest probability.

    Somewhat lower chances of damaging hail, and lower still for twisters.

    In other words, nothing like March 2 2012.

    Still a good idea to have the weather alert radios and other early warning devices ready to go. Especially since some of the severe wx late Wed/early Thur in western KY/TN could happen at night. A nighttime rain-wrapped twister from a squall-line is nothing to sneeze at considering that squall-line twisters can give less warning than supercell twisters, even with advanced radar.

    Stay safe everyone.

  3. Teacher Nate says:

    Simulated radar looks like this thing is a very slow mover…24 hours to only traverse 3/4 of the state? What is the flood threat?

    • Mike S says:

      Yes…could be some issues with high water. However, ground has dried out nicely over the past 2 weeks, at least here in Louisville.

      Nevertheless, 1-3″ is expected across the Commonwealth.

      • Mark says:

        NWS Paducah is indeed saying there could be at least some localized flooding issues. But they say not likely to be widespread serious problems.

  4. Coffeelady says:

    Thanks, Chris. I feel good knowing that I can go to the blog, or FB, or just turn on WKYT and get the very latest weather info. Don’t relish the thought of severe storms, but as usual, you are and have been talking about this for a few days. The record warmth predicted today was mentioned here a week or so ago. So I feel confident that we are in very good weather hands. Thanks for all you do. IT is appreciated. Have a great Wednesday, everyone!

  5. Mark says:

    When Chris said don’t get too use to the current warmth, he wasn’t kidding 😉

    Current temperatures:
    San Antonio: 49 F
    Dallas/Ft Worth: 40
    Oklahoma City: 32 (and light freezing rain)
    North Platte, Nebraska: 24

  6. Mark says:

    SPC just put up a couple of tornado watches in Arkansas, Missouri and southern Illinois.

    Basically the watches are just across the Mississippi and Ohio Rivers from western areas of Kentucky and Tennessee. Hopefully the twister threat will lesson somewhat as the front slowly moves east, but time to be on our guard tonight and tomorrow.

    Also a severe t-storm watch just north of much of Kentucky.

  7. In Lincoln Co. says:

    So, am I correct in saying that South Central Kentucky will not see any action until after daylight tomorrow?

  8. sue(flatwoods ky) says:

    my friend lives in St Louis and was just in a lock down in a store due to a poss tornado! I haven’t heard back from her to see if there was any damage or not!

  9. South Ky Cat says:

    Seems like anymore a straight line wind threat by the SPC always turns into tornado watches when it gets here. I think we are the new tornado alley.

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