A Lot Of Ugly Showing Up

Good Saturday, everyone. Soggy weather has invaded the bluegrass state today and will hang around through the weekend as showers and thunderstorms increase. The rainfall may add up to an inch or two for some areas through Sunday night. While we track the weekend action, we’re also watching the possibility of a nasty pattern developing for early May.

Showers and storms will increase from southwest to northeast today. Locally heavy downpours will be possible… especially this evening into tonight as an area of low pressure works through here. This system may bring enough juice to fire up a strong storm or two on Sunday… especially with some breaks in the clouds.

Here’s the regional radar to track the drops…

Temps into early next week may head closer to 80 degrees for many. That is not an indication of things to come as the pattern for Derby weekend and beyond looks ugly.

A big dip in the jet stream will allow for cold air to surge into the middle of the country by the middle of the week. That should allow for the development of some booming thunderstorms around here. Check out the dip on the GFS…

GFS 3

That dip is forecast to turn into a HUGE cutoff area of low pressure that would stick around for several days…GFS 4

Those types of systems are NASTY and can deliver thermometer readings bordering on cold…GFS 2Rounds of showers and wind usually accompany a pattern like the models are forecasting. The more extreme solutions have been trying to bring a touch of frozen precipitation into our region.

A lot depends on exactly where that upper low decides to set up shop and that’s what we will be watching in the coming days.

Make it a great Saturday and take care.


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17 Responses to A Lot Of Ugly Showing Up

  1. KRinRichmond says:

    Should I even bother to open my pool this summer?? Ridiculous, this cold pattern continues into May and beyond. Mother nature needs a smack in the face. Is this pattern going to carry us into June as well??

  2. Chris Mercer says:

    This has not been a “cold pattern” for April. The last official freeze in Lexington was April 5, about ten days earlier than normal. The average temperature for Lexington is .8 degrees above normal for the month through April 26. It appears that April will finish near normal in the temperature department, and slightly above normal in precipitation. And speaking of frozen precip, we have recorded no measurable snow in April, and our average is .3 inches. Now, May might bring a different story, and March was cold, but April has not been, relative to normal.

    • Todd says:

      That seems impossible, I can only recall a few days above normal this month, temps in the low 30s most mornings when the average is around 40??

      If this is normal for KY it only proves weather sucks in April every year in KY!

      • Chris Mercer says:

        I thought the same thing as you, but the data shows a different story. http://www.nws.noaa.gov/climate/getclimate.php?wfo=lmk

      • Chris Mercer says:

        The link I provided doesn’t work, but in looking at the data we had two periods of several days (April 7-10) and another beginning April 15 that were 15-20 degrees above normal. Some of those days featured highs in the low 80′s and lows in the 60′s–more typical of June. On the flip side, we have had some cool days, but no days with highs below 50, which is somewhat unusual for April.

        • Todd says:

          I hope the models are over doing the cold air for next weekend, we might be 20 to 30 degrees below normal if these maps verifies???

          • Chris Mercer says:

            Yeah–I hope those maps don’t verify as well! The average high for tomorrow is 70 in Lexington. If those maps verify, we may be looking at highs in the 40′s or 50′s. It could be worse though–the coldest high ever for May is 42 and that was accompanied by six inches of snow–on May 20, 1894.

    • BubbaG says:

      I do not recall an April this cold, so seems the data might be bunk. This reminds me of an English spring and I do not recall thinking that before.

      The funky pattern keeps on giving: Scorching summer, rainy fall, meh winter, bleh spring. Rinse and repeat?

  3. Mark says:

    Thanks, CB. Soggy indeed. A slight chance of severe wx this evening, but a low tornado threat.

    Nothing like two years ago today, which is the anniversary of the 2011 Super Outbreak. Two years ago, I by chance happened onto this stunning live coverage of the Tuscaloosa tornado via livestream (well know Birmingham tv met James Spann showed why he’s one of the best in the business):
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sA7TKSHJ_wM

    As somber at watching the Tuscaloosa twister was, I was later plunged into an even more sickening helpless feeling; my siblings and I were unable to contact our parents due to destroyed phone infrastructure and overloaded circuits. It was with tremendous relief to finally learn that my folks were fine. Turned out the monster Ringgold Georgia tornado missed my parents in the Cleveland TN area by a little less than 10 miles. Just talked to both of my parents, it’s been extra special to hug them or at least hear their voices these last two years.

  4. Todd says:

    Looks like the rain underachieving today In Ncentral ky, clouds and ugly here, but Minnesota, sunny with temps in the 70s, seems like KY is one of the last places to moderate in the spring even though we are considered a southern state??

  5. bobt says:

    April has been bad regardless of what historical data says. I think a fee hot days has boosted the overall average up. I guess what makes it seem worse is that we really can’t put a good stretch of nice days together. If we are lucky enough to throw two or three days together it is followed by rain and two days of cold. Anyway you look at it March and April has not been very good months.

  6. bobt says:

    Latest info I’ve read has weather trending warmer for the weekend. Looks like rain on Friday, but now saying maybe hitting 60′s for highs instead of low 50′s. Hope they are right and derby weekend is not cold and miserable.

  7. chris g in clay county says:

    April has been pretty much warm all month. Few days of sorta cool, bit mostly warm.

  8. Mark says:

    Severe t-storm warning for Clarksville Tennessee area. That mess is entering KY. Be on guard, Bowling Green and Franklin KY.

    As Chris tweeted, numerous flash flood warnings for parts of western KY – including Hopkinsville.

    Most if not all of the NWS Nashville coverage area now under a flash flood watch. KY counties near the TN line also need to be alert.

    Stay safe everyone.

  9. Mark says:

    There’s now a tornado warning just south of Clarksville Tennessee (thus, just south of the KY state line). Radar indicated rotation.

  10. Todd says:

    Chris might need to update since his earlier post, the models have flipped or trended much warmer for next weekend!
    WE CAN ONLY HOPE! WE NEED WARMER WEATHER!!!!

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