The GFS Won’t Give Up

Good evening everyone. Heavy rain will continue to pull on away from the state this evening allowing us to focus more on the weather of the next few days. The big news is that the GFS continues to try to pull a Christmas miracle with the weekend system.

My last update showed how the two systems were staying sperate long enough to keep a storm from forming. Each run of the GFS shows more and more interaction between these two disturbances…

The end result is a weak storm skirting us with some moisture…

If we can get that northern branch system to dig farther south and fully phase with the system moving out of the southern plains… we would be in business.

The GFS Ensembles are also trending in the same direction as the operational GFS.

It should be noted that these are the only two models trying to bring the storm back to life. All the others keep the southern plains system hanging around that region until the middle of next week. Many of them say that’s when we would have to watch for a storm.

The GFS has been all over the place this week… so let’s not get too excited by it’s trend. It does give us something to watch for with the latest computer runs tonight. Maybe there is something to that festivus miracle thing.

I do like what the GFS shows for Friday…

There is some low level moisture hanging tough and that means a lot of clouds and even some sprinkles or flurries.

Have a great evening and take care.

22 Comments

jonb on December 23, 2011 at 12:10 am

What a good time it would be for the models to turn in our favor

Kim on December 23, 2011 at 12:39 am

Thanks Chris! You always give us a little hope! HOPE IS STILL ALIVE! LOL Thanks again for ALL you do! MERRY CHRISTMAS!

vanessa short on December 23, 2011 at 12:40 am

So what now.

Kim on December 23, 2011 at 12:44 am

To Vanessa: so what now?

WE KEEP CHECKING WITH CHRIS TO SEE WHAT THE MODELS ARE FORECASTING! Mother Nature has a mknd of her own! Watch, wait, and Hope! Thats what! Merry Christmas!

vanessa short on December 23, 2011 at 12:46 am

I mean is it going to snow or not lo..

NoSnow on December 23, 2011 at 1:12 am

Its not, just a hopeless model unlike the others. Like he said itd be a miracle… only this miracle ain’t coming our way

Tasha on December 23, 2011 at 1:29 am

Mother Nature is manic when it comes to Kentucky, up one minute, down the next. I won’t rule out a smattering of snow on Sunday.

Snow Drought on December 23, 2011 at 1:38 am

Never say never. But it is going to take a Hail Merry Pass for it to snow on x mas day. Here is my analogy,The score is Grinch 17 Santa 13 with 3 seconds left in the game and the ball on Santa’s 12 yard line. (Rudolph has just been carried off the field on a stretcher). No star receiver is left in the game.
That is basically what the chances of it snowing this weekend.

SnowChic on December 23, 2011 at 2:20 am

We wait for a CHRISTMAS MIRACLE!!!
Merry Christmas! 🙂

SnowChic on December 23, 2011 at 2:24 am

Wow!!!! Cheer up, you have to have hope before you can receive anything!! Miracles don’t have to be predicted!!
“….I’m dreaming of a white Christmas….”

BengalFan on December 23, 2011 at 3:05 am

Very True….The idea, song, or movie isn’t titled “Im guaranteeing a white christmas”.,,,
We nor the models make up the weather, for sure trends tell alot and models predict, but weather will do what its going to do

Tom on December 23, 2011 at 3:31 am

nam has developed a interesting closed low, hmm

vanessa short on December 23, 2011 at 3:43 am

Is that a good sign.

mitch on December 23, 2011 at 3:46 am

Well A look at the ECMWF weekly model shows no signs of the first measureable snow through the halfway point of meteorological winter on Jan 15th. Lexington least snowiest winter was 1931-32 with 2.1 inches. Bowling Green had a snowless winter in 31-32. I still think Feburary will be very warm.

Tom on December 23, 2011 at 3:50 am

to early to tell, but a closed low scenario seems to be our best hope since we have no blocking in place

Snow Drought on December 23, 2011 at 3:51 am

Do we need a Greenland high to have an extended cold spell?

Jeff Hamlin on December 23, 2011 at 3:55 am

Whatever weather comes this way, I will be content because I am simply grateful to be a child of God. If it snows, I will enjoy it. If it rains, I will still be content. 🙂

BubbaG on December 23, 2011 at 4:05 am

Give it up folks and enjoy the holiday. Look on the bright side. Next winter has nowhere to go but up 😉

Frankly, based on all of the ankle biters that central Kentucky got last winter, I would rather have NOTHING if the same that. Small snows are annoying and dangerous.

toney on December 23, 2011 at 4:17 am

folks, no doubt about it, what small chance we had of a white christmas from the lowly gfs is gone now after the new 00z runs came out. however winter is not lost, yea sure, we will have a big warmup coming in jan., probably mid to late jan. but watch out for feb. and march because then and only then will true arctic air have a chance to get involved, not saying it will but it will have a chance, until then lets enjoy some early march weather in dec. and jan. then maybe we can enjoy dec. and jan. weather in feb. and march. r u confused yet? i know i sure am. lol!!! u just never know about the weather, it can change in an instant.

merry christmas folks and happy new year.

RhondaB on December 23, 2011 at 4:35 am

Where is the “LIKE” button when you need it?
Well said, Jeff!

RhondaB on December 23, 2011 at 4:38 am

Still wearin’ that Darth Vader costume, aren’t ya, BubbaG…lol.

Merry Christmas!

BubbaG on December 23, 2011 at 5:07 am

Merry Christmas to you and the rest of the CB blogger crew 🙂

jonb on December 23, 2011 at 12:10 am
What a good time it would be for the models to turn in our favor
Kim on December 23, 2011 at 12:39 am
Thanks Chris! You always give us a little hope! HOPE IS STILL ALIVE! LOL Thanks again for ALL you do! MERRY CHRISTMAS!
vanessa short on December 23, 2011 at 12:40 am
So what now.
Kim on December 23, 2011 at 12:44 am
To Vanessa: so what now?
WE KEEP CHECKING WITH CHRIS TO SEE WHAT THE MODELS ARE FORECASTING! Mother Nature has a mknd of her own! Watch, wait, and Hope! Thats what! Merry Christmas!
vanessa short on December 23, 2011 at 12:46 am
I mean is it going to snow or not lo..
NoSnow on December 23, 2011 at 1:12 am
Its not, just a hopeless model unlike the others. Like he said itd be a miracle… only this miracle ain’t coming our way
Tasha on December 23, 2011 at 1:29 am
Mother Nature is manic when it comes to Kentucky, up one minute, down the next. I won’t rule out a smattering of snow on Sunday.
Snow Drought on December 23, 2011 at 1:38 am
Never say never. But it is going to take a Hail Merry Pass for it to snow on x mas day. Here is my analogy,The score is Grinch 17 Santa 13 with 3 seconds left in the game and the ball on Santa’s 12 yard line. (Rudolph has just been carried off the field on a stretcher). No star receiver is left in the game.
That is basically what the chances of it snowing this weekend.
SnowChic on December 23, 2011 at 2:20 am
We wait for a CHRISTMAS MIRACLE!!!
Merry Christmas! 🙂
SnowChic on December 23, 2011 at 2:24 am
Wow!!!! Cheer up, you have to have hope before you can receive anything!! Miracles don’t have to be predicted!!
“….I’m dreaming of a white Christmas….”
BengalFan on December 23, 2011 at 3:05 am
Very True….The idea, song, or movie isn’t titled “Im guaranteeing a white christmas”.,,,
We nor the models make up the weather, for sure trends tell alot and models predict, but weather will do what its going to do
Tom on December 23, 2011 at 3:31 am
nam has developed a interesting closed low, hmm
vanessa short on December 23, 2011 at 3:43 am
Is that a good sign.
mitch on December 23, 2011 at 3:46 am
Well A look at the ECMWF weekly model shows no signs of the first measureable snow through the halfway point of meteorological winter on Jan 15th. Lexington least snowiest winter was 1931-32 with 2.1 inches. Bowling Green had a snowless winter in 31-32. I still think Feburary will be very warm.
Tom on December 23, 2011 at 3:50 am
to early to tell, but a closed low scenario seems to be our best hope since we have no blocking in place
Snow Drought on December 23, 2011 at 3:51 am
Do we need a Greenland high to have an extended cold spell?
Jeff Hamlin on December 23, 2011 at 3:55 am
Whatever weather comes this way, I will be content because I am simply grateful to be a child of God. If it snows, I will enjoy it. If it rains, I will still be content. 🙂
BubbaG on December 23, 2011 at 4:05 am
Give it up folks and enjoy the holiday. Look on the bright side. Next winter has nowhere to go but up 😉
Frankly, based on all of the ankle biters that central Kentucky got last winter, I would rather have NOTHING if the same that. Small snows are annoying and dangerous.
toney on December 23, 2011 at 4:17 am
folks, no doubt about it, what small chance we had of a white christmas from the lowly gfs is gone now after the new 00z runs came out. however winter is not lost, yea sure, we will have a big warmup coming in jan., probably mid to late jan. but watch out for feb. and march because then and only then will true arctic air have a chance to get involved, not saying it will but it will have a chance, until then lets enjoy some early march weather in dec. and jan. then maybe we can enjoy dec. and jan. weather in feb. and march. r u confused yet? i know i sure am. lol!!! u just never know about the weather, it can change in an instant.
merry christmas folks and happy new year.
RhondaB on December 23, 2011 at 4:35 am
Where is the “LIKE” button when you need it?
Well said, Jeff!
RhondaB on December 23, 2011 at 4:38 am
Still wearin’ that Darth Vader costume, aren’t ya, BubbaG…lol.
Merry Christmas!
BubbaG on December 23, 2011 at 5:07 am
Merry Christmas to you and the rest of the CB blogger crew 🙂

22 Comments

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