Good Sunday everyone and thanks for making us your home for online weather. Showers and thunderstorms will continue to work across the state today. These will put down some very heavy rains as they roll through. Our attention will then turn toward a busy Kentucky Derby week of weather.
The rounds of storms today will have enough juice to cause some local high water concerns. A general 1″-2″ of rain may fall across much of the state. Some areas may see higher totals and those will be the areas of greatest flooding concerns.
Scattered thunderstorms will hang around into Monday as temps start to head back toward the 70 degree mark. That will set the stage for much warmer air moving in for Tuesday and Wednesday. Thermometers will spike closer to 80 degrees during this time.
The big dip in the jet stream we have been talking about is still on target for later in the week. The models have slowed this system down some and timing differences are to be expected. That same dip will develop into a monster of a closed low that will bring nasty weather to those close to it. Areas directly under the closed low will have the absolute worst of the worst.
Tracking EXACTLY where that closed low tracks will be a tough task for the computer models until a few days out. You will see some wild swings with this system and it’s important not to have forecasts that feature wild bounces with each run.
The latest runs of the models keep the closed low just a bit west of where they have been showing in recent days. Here’s the GFS Ensemble Mean…
One way or another… this system is likely to have a pretty big impact on Kentucky Derby weekend. The extent of that impact won’t be known for several more days.
Have a great Sunday and take care.
Thanks for the update, the cold looks like its days are numbered now, the calendar will take over at this point!!
clay co at around 420am. Got a leak again in my roof. Looks as tho im gonna have put in for repairs. 13 year old housr dhouldnt be leaking, i must took storm damage at some point last spring or summer while i was in houston.
Thanks chris for the update. Lets hope no severe or frozen stuff like u mentioned a day or so ago comes with the upcoming system.
Having trouble posting with android phone. Made a typo, went back to the top where the typo was to correct the typo, and it wouldn’t let me go back down to where i was , at bottom of comment section. Had to delete the whole paragraph one word at a time to be able to delete the comment i didnt finish typing out before i tried to correct the typo. It may be in my phone too. Android 2.3.3 is what this phone has on it, it won’t update to 4.0 android without modifying the phone to be able too update the android operating system
I use an android phone too, I know what problem you have and it gets really frustrating to have to type a whole paragraph again, especially on a phone. That’s how I check the blog everyday with my phone, never been on this site with a computer before.
Although I have 2.3.6
Morning all. Thanks for the update, Chris. We had a couple of storms move through late last night and early this morning. Lightning was pretty keen with them. This morning, it’s just cloudy and gloomy at the moment. Hope when we get the closed low to move it will take this ugly weather with it. Have a great Sunday, everyone.
Sun popping out in Frankfort, looks today might be better than forecast, another .60 in. Rain last nite, if storms fire today they could get ugly!
Looks like the 80 percent chance of rain is a bust, good, a few scatterd showers at most at the moment, computer models suck thankfully!
Yep, the models seem challenged even for rain now. Funny. The blocking is the next thing, since CB mentioned the area around the blocking could be in for funky stuff.
Have had well over an inch of rain forecast seems spot on
In your location mean isolated, 80 percent means widespread coverage, we did get a isolated shower here in Frankfort, but no where near the 80 percent morning forecast, just saying 😉