Good Thursday everyone. We interrupt this regularly scheduled blog to bring you NOT BREAKING NEWS. Another round of heavy rain will move into Kentucky today as a fast moving low pressure works through the area. It has been an amazing year for rainfall across this entire region and this will only add to the record yearly totals for many areas.
I will have some words on Christmas weekend coming up in a bit. This is a busy travel day across the region and the country and heavy rain means a slow go at it… especially this afternoon and this evening.
Low pressure will track across Tennessee into Virginia by early Friday. That’s a snow track in a normal winter… this has not been a normal start to winter. That means we get rain and you’ll like it. 
A half to one inch of water will fall from the skies today and tonight and you can track it all…
Rainfall Since Midnight
Temps today will be in the upper 40s to near 50.
Colder air moves in for Friday with many areas holding between 40 and 45 degrees for afternoon highs. There will be some leftover moisture, so a light shower or evening flurry can’t be ruled out.
Christmas Eve looks seasonally chilly with highs again 40-45.
The models continue to swing and miss on the system for Christmas. Check out just how close the GFS is to having the two jet streams phase…
You can clearly see the two systems staying separate through Christmas day. It wouldn’t take much adjustment to get those two together and for the storm ro reappear. Time is running out… Here’s hoping for a festivus miracle!
I will have updates later today. Have a great Thursday and take care.
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I love this blog and read it everyday through the winter and spring. I’m also excited that Chris’s and his blogging skills are getting good props.
I did see this on another blog and thought it was interesting so I thought I would post it- with no other motive than sharing an interesting read on long range forecasting because all of us blogettes on her will give our winter prediction at one point or another. Enjoy and please discuss: http://www.lex18.com/bill-s-weather-blog/
But what we don’t do is post anything concerning the BM on here though
Hi Andy- its a gamble I know but I was hoping people would look past the BM part and look at the actual link within the post. As the least weather savoy person on here, I was hoping it would provide some honest discussion about long range predictions. The “perception vs reality” part also make good sense for bullish predictions.
well winter for the OHVLLY is far from set in stone and there is plenty of time for a random humdinger to hammer the region (maybe even lexington haha)
I for one hope to enjoy these mid 40s and days with sun, if it is not going to snow you can’t complain about mild sunny weather 🙂
here is a song for folks to cheer up our snowstorm blues. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h80l4XIPJC4&feature=fvwrel
doing a little thinking about the big snows people often mention on here.
There were 4 in the 1990s March 1993, January 1994, January 1996, February 1998. Wow 4 major snows in 5 winters, FOUR! This certainly tipped the average balance of things bigtime! Interestingly the areas that were spared the worst of march 1993 got the brunt of january 1994. What about the Superstorm of december 2004 and the w/n KY 10-16” snow of March 2008? All in all KY has been hit with alot of big ones, alot more than climate norms would dictate in the past 15 or so winters, the 1990s especially were far from normal.
we need to move past the white christmas and look at new years … has anyone heard of a possible ice storm coming new years day ??
another note and not weather related — but why in the heck did gas jump up 40 cents a gallon in one day … is that price gouging or what!!!!!!!! the oil companies are just telling us to have a merry christmas right up our rear ends.
i dont mind BM, he does a good job also. he’s not CB but, he is good at what he does. when the tornado hit masterson station, the radar he was using showed vortex signature for at least 30 mins before the storm hit MS. no other station was covering the storm till it got right up close to lexington.
chris is awesome at what he does also. he does a good job on a blog he puts out for us to enjoy. he gets paid zelch,zero, nothing, a naught for this. (had a teacher in HS who jokingly called a zero a naught). ive been following cb’s blog since about sept 06, during his WKYT days.
good write-up in the link in earlier post.
hey lets focus on XMAS SUPPLIES. bottle i mean 3 bottles good wine- CHECK
coiuple cases BEERR=CHECK
knockout meds incasse family gerts on my nerves= CHECK
PORKLOIN dinner with all trimmings=check!!! that what us country folk eat in rednck city.
and spend great time while sneaking to puter to gamble check weather==check
to all my bloggers the newbies and us old school one I LOVE U AND HAVE A MERRY CHRISTMAS.
remember if u ever need a ride or are in a bind u holler and rolo will be there.
then to Chris THE LEGEND BAILEY u are the best guy there is, I still hate that passed u over for TG SHUCK on the nitghtly news, i like TG but u was there from begging as weather watcher for ther late graet BRIAN COLLINS.
to u CB i wish u and your wife and kid the best CHRISTMAS and NEW YEARS EVER!! ROLO LOVES YA MAN.
Well, I have no quarrel with the BM, so I read both blogs. Mr. Bailey has talked about this on here too. For those two guys to come out publicly and basically say that hurricane season predictions have no real value should give all of us pause when it comes to any long-range “forecast.” There’s been a lot of griping on here about winter already, and some of it probably has to do with the fact that Mr. Bailey was predicting a bullish start to winter. I’m sure he feels bad that the prediction busted, but you shouldn’t be hard on him for it. He, and some others on here, know even better than the rest of us that our best equipment can only go reliably about 3 days out, and no weatherman worth his salt would guarantee anything beyond that. The atmosphere, like most of nature, is a large, complicated system that pretty much defies explanation AND control.
To Mr. Bailey specifically I say thank you for sharing your thoughts on here with us. Keep it up. You’ve been right on many long-range deals…more than most. We’ll take what we get this winter, even if we ALL are surprised by it.
i <3 u 2 rolo haha 🙂 merry christmas you sir are perhaps the blogs most interesting and eccentric character 🙂
brian collins was the guy who got me interested in weather, i remeber a few weeks after i started watching him he called the december 3 2000 snowstorm perfect, then 2 weeks later lexington went below freezing for 20 straight days. the good days 5th grade xmas break!
Where has the arctic air that was mentioned in November gone? The warm air from down South has kicked it in the groin and is laughing at it.
it’s called La Niña … probably going to mess the whole winter up
The only thing that’s is going to mess up most of this blogs winter is the smack down that La Cards are going to lay to the Cats on New Year’s!
Sorry, but I had to go there!!!
i have to admit that the cards are looking good … the way they played against memphis worries me, the only hope is we are at home and it’s hard to beat us in rupp.
I remember a stretch back in the summer when the Lord John Belski had mentioned that we could possibly go several weeks without temps in the 90’s. Well the very next week was one of the hottest and we saw several days in the 90’s over the weeks he was talking about. Just saying that long range forecasts have been hard to hit. Winter will show up in the OHValley just be patience as we are just now getting winter started.
Hey Rolo I got my red solo cup ready buddy
I used to bleed blue and still pull for the cats. Wife won’t let any blue in house as she ran CC for UofL. Just trying to ruffle some feathers a week before the game. Rupp is a plus, but I just don’t see UK’s bench, except for Miller, providing any quality minutes. Should be a good game.
Sure hopin’ any run from any model today phases both northern and southern jet streams. I’ll be fine with a repeat of 2009 (1 hour of snow showers/flurries)…I’ve given up for a while on a repeat of 2010. Anyone else think the time frame around New Years could get a little icy?
College of charleston showed a couple of major flaws in the cards game…Look for cal and the cats to take big time advantage of these flaws…Ky by 10…
lol love it JENN.
yea TOMMY FRANK FAULKNER got me started along with BRIAN COLLINS and brad james the 3 of the 4 icons in local weather CBAILEY the other at a young age and he in west VIRGINA its a joke that wkyt did rward a guy who astay on moening show and midday for SO MANY YEARS.
Yep, porkloin and collards for Christmas dinner at my place. And some good wine, too. I’m with ya Rolo.
ILL bnret amnybody any asmount UK will beat the ville by 5 or more.
any takers, anybody LOUSERVILLE has played NOBODY.
lol louisber will be in the reagional 8 this maybe a f4 but they will get beat by BIG BLKLUE
we played KANSAS,IU,UNC who losertville played.
any takers ill lay 500 to 300 straight bet no points up win.
ill give 6 points and bet 1000 straight~~~
YEA KEEP THE BETTING ON … LET’S GET SOME SLOT MACHINES BROUGHT IN WITH UK ON THEM. 500,300,1000 STRAIGHT?? STRAIGHT WHAT – CHICKEN EGGS? ROLLED DUBBIES ?? WHAT ARE YOU BETTING ?
Hmm…what are the odds of 12z NAM surface temps being overdone for tonight? We look awfully close to a snow switchover tonight. 850mb temps look decent, but wow what a serious lapse rate the model is showing. Seems slightly odd..
I remember when Brian was at channel 18 back in the 80s, before the internet and cell phones. He and Brad James were the most famous people in central Kentucky…because they were THE source for weather info.
Rolo 2012
Can anybody tell me is it possible to have an extended cold spell without the infamous Greenland high. It is my understanding that was the reason we had cold winters over the past two years. If my memory serves me correct when the high eventually moved out further east last year our winter became mild.
Rolo, Hope you and your family have a Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year.
UK fans need to be careful when they talk about playing NOBODY….The only poll that matters right now is the RPI… UK is currently 40th with a strength of scheduele at 175…UofL is 6th with SOS of 69. Not saying UofL is better, but everyone is playing a bunch of nobodies right now. THINKS SNOW!!!!
Don’t listen to that horse manure on tv from the so called experts about UK not having a bench…Miller,Vargas,Wiltjer and now Beckham…Don’t look to shabby to me…
Like Rolo mentioned above, Faulkner, Collins and James were the best. I couldn’t wait to watch them on the 5:00 news if it was suppose to snow that night. I can’t remember who, but there was a weather man that came on WLAP AM that did ky. over all weather, and was pretty accurate. I kept getting up all night long looking out at the street light to see if it was snowing. I would turn the radio on about 5 in the morning listening to here ” no school today in Fayette Co.” I made a lot of money going around shoveling driveways and sidewalks. Those were the good ole days.
Rolo that Porkloin sounds good along with the wine lol!!!!!!! Merry Christmas to you Chris and everyone.What is the song for the Day???? Love you guys!!!!!!!!
From a VERY selfish and positive spin perspective, my kids are older and more video game and girl centric, so the magic of snow is not there as much (they only saw a few decent snows, but better than nothing) and I dislike moving snow and ice from my large and up hill driveway.
Must admit I now would not mind a wimpy winter and will take them to a ski resort and they can get the family some good snow 🙂 That costs money though 🙁
Question for Mitch (though open to anyone): How is your confidence holding for a potential SSW event next month?
song of the day is
‘
age 20 years in 5 by GEORGE JONES i say lot u nevewr heards it go youtube it its a GREAT SONG.
monus song, setting on the dock of the bgay!!!!
Check out the accuweatherpro snowfall model!!! http://www.accuweather.com/en/outdoor-articles/outdoor-living/how-to-forecast-a-white-christ/59292
Who has loserville played away from home this year CUPCAKES! Bring it little brother!
Heavy rain / 44* ! Perfect Seattle Washington weather!!! Right here in the ole Bluegrass!!! 🙁
This has been terrible. My yard has been a soupy mess just about the entire year!! Blah!!! We need a waist deep snow and we can’t even get snow showers/flurries or even cold temps 🙁
18z GFS bombs us!!!
(not)
But it brings a little more precip. up into this area again. Geez..
In his latest tweet he says it brings the storm back alive….is it still even possible and what are the other models showing?
Get a life troll
bombs us with rain ?
I HOPE BIGCAT is still around….
RPI has Loserville as you say with a strengh of schedule of 69 in the country and UK at 175. Now who is playing the cupcakes??? RPI Rankings is what you look at now and Loserville sits at sixth and UK at 40….I rest my case as every Major D 1 school in america is playing cupcakes…OH yeah..Murry State is curretly 5th in the RPI…Going to be a great season for the Kentuckiana area and basketball.
want to see insult to injury? look at this. 🙁
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
200 PM CST FRI DEC 23 2011
TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-240100-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-
NAVARRO-FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-
LIMESTONE-LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
200 PM CST FRI DEC 23 2011
…ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE ON CHRISTMAS EVE…
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS TEXAS THIS
WEEKEND AND WILL BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA…THIS PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS RAIN. AREAS TO THE WEST AND
NORTH OF A LINE FROM GAINESVILLE..TO WEATHERFORD…TO
LAMPASAS…WILL SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOWFALL ON SATURDAY.
TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN AN
INCH…WITH MOST ACCUMULATIONS OCCURRING ON GRASSY OR ELEVATED
SURFACES. TRAVEL IMPACTS WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO INTERSTATE
20…MAINLY WEST OF U.S. 287. BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES WILL BE THE
FIRST TO BECOME SLICK.
ELSEWHERE…RAIN COULD BECOME MIXED WITH SNOW DURING THE EVENING
HOURS ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER…SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING…SO ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.
they are even a chance for some snow here in tx , more then they are back home. 🙁 i was hoping everyone back home in ky would get some snow, but its not looking to promising for the next couple weeks at least. maybe after middle of jan or so. (keeps fingers crossed)
hello rolo, my friend. hope you, and everyone here on the blog has a very merry christmas and happy new year, even tho y’all never got any snow back home. if it makes you feel any better, they are none in houston where im at either.