Good Wednesday, folks. May is off and running and the weather picture is looking good… for now. Warmer than normal temps will continue for a few more days and then things take a turn toward the ugly. That turn looks to take place during Kentucky Derby weekend. That may not be the last of the ugly weather as we go forward.

Temps today will top out in the low 80s across much of the bluegrass state. There is just enough instability to fire up an isolated shower or thunderstorm, but most will see dry weather. A similar forecast will play out for Thursday… temps in the upper 70s and low 80s with a scattered storm possible.

The slow moving changes for the weekend start to impact our weather as early as Friday. A slow moving cutoff low pressure across the plains states will being a significant snowfall for areas normally getting hammered by tornadoes this time of year. That system meanders into the region later Friday into Saturday…

GFS

That setup MAY mean we get through Oaks Day with a lot of the rain just to our west. Derby day may see a lot of that stuff rolling in from the west and has a much better chance to be wet. Showers and cooler air would then continue into Sunday and Monday.

Again… timing, timing, timing.

That system will finally scoot out of here at some point early next week. That would leave us with warming temps, but the European Model continues to play up another big dump of cold air by the end of next week…

Euro 2 Euro 3This is insane to see air masses like these showing up in MAY.

Have a great Wednesday and take care.