Good Wednesday everyone. We have a rainy next few days ahead of us and the dreary weather is likely to play right into the moods of snow lovers across our region. The small chance we had for a white Christmas is even smaller today. More on that in a bit.
Low pressure is working into the Ohio Valley today and will bring widespread showers and even some isolated thunderstorms. There is even the slightest chance that one or two of the storms could be on the strong side across eastern Kentucky.
Let’s track the springtime weather…
Highs today are going to be warm with reading in the upper 50s and low 60s. Yes… it is 4 days before Christmas.
As this storm moves away later tonight… things may dry out for a few hours before the next system sweeps in on Thursday. This storm is looking stronger and stronger and will bring heavy rains across the entire region into Thursday night.
Many areas will pick up 1″-2″ of rain by Friday morning. Both the NAM and GFS are all over this…
As I mentioned earlier… the Thursday storm continues to get stronger with each model run. A stronger storm throws the rest of the forecast cycle for a loop as it changes the whole dynamics of the weekend setup. The models are still trying to sort through it all… but even the European lost the Christmas Day storm with the latest run. Ironically… the GFS is getting close to having a storm again.
It’s still too early to pronounce this next system dead on arrival… but it’s on life support right now. The energy responsible for this system is just now getting into an area where the models can finally get a good sample of what they are dealing with. #keephopealive 
Your friendly weatherdude is a snow lover from November through January, so my window doesn’t have much time left. Old man winter had better do something before I throw the switch into March Madness and Spring Training mode. 
I will have updates as needed. Have a great Wednesday and take care.
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So are you saying winter hasn’t played out the way you thought it would so far? Also, any predictions on where you think the temps may go in january? I’ve heard some sources saying at least the first half of the month may be on the warmer side.
Don’t write winter off (or at least a huge snow) this early.
You never know.
Feb 1998 snow had NOTHING prior but warm temps in NOV DEC (97), and Jan (98)…..There was NO snow at all that entire season EXCEPT for that storm & that put our total to 20 inches that season from one storm & that was a fantastic storm to experience!
Not that it’s going to happen. But in Dec of 1997…..No one would have predicted that would happen a month and a half later. 😀
I can’t believe what I am reading, after all the early Fall AND late Summer hype about Winter you are thinking about throwing the switch? What switch? Switch to a new profession? Kentucky doesn’t typically have snow until January, what is this November/December muck?
Throw all the switches you can muster fact is ad long as this BS pattern holds the longer a cold wet Spring is likely to transpire which is fine as well. I wouldn’t be throwing utensils at Winter 12 yet. BTW so much for Meteoroligists using Tarrot Cards , analogy,darts and Aunt Milda’s bunions to look much beyond 14 days to guess 90 days out because frankly Mets simply don’t know squat much past 7 days out especially in Winter. Merry blanking Christmas. Not!!!!9
Now Chris don’t be discouraged this early! Today is the first day of winter!
No need to give up on this winter. If it’s not blazing hot by the first day of summer, nobody says there will be no sweltering days in July/August/September. It will happen!
Personally, I like snow in December because I’m not sick of the dreary cold quite yet. Right about now, with mud everywhere and horses tearing up the fields, I am not super excited about snow but at least the ground would be frozen.
weather.com has us in the slight risk area for a white christmas which is more than they were showing a day ago…
http://www.weather.com/outlook/weather-news/news/articles/white-christmas-outlook_2011-11-17
Wow. Sad day..
What a depressing update!
OH MY !! Someone get steve an eggnog ! QUICK!
Great write up on what could actually become one of the most mildest winters seen in a while.
http://www.facebook.com/weathernation in their blog they talk about the mild winter and that it may be like this all winter. 🙁 I sure hope not
e se ky could get a snow on XMAS DAY best chance for it as lopw moves to s and east,
now could it blow up sure, but as BAILEY SAID we are given up to die if something dont happen. i said WED NITE run thur morn tell tell sao m hopinh euro might come back around to a stronger storm.
i still say for SE KY there a 50 percenbt chance of some snow on ground XMAS AFTERNOON and evening. no that a inch or more but ive seen XMAS before with snow forcasted to be flying/mix and we get a stronger storm 24 hours out and see sevferal inches.
big snows aside…the entire region is due a mild winter and then some by just looking at the law of averages. Lexington may still not have got its 10 or 12 inch snow but the last 3 winters (really beyond that) have been pretty harsh by KY or OH standards as I have lived in both areas and neither from a “norm” standpoint are all that cold or snowy in comparison to alot of areas. The OHVLLY will never see prolonged cold of the upper midwest or the blizzards of the lakes belts and rocky mountain region. As for big snows so many areas around lexington have recieved more than one major snow in the past few years. The cold has been a true mainstay in the past few winters even more so than the snow. The last really mild winter I am recalling is 2005-2006.
yea s se middle of coutry jan tru march above ormal be lucky tio get 6 inches total snow this year, unless the mofddel tomm come backaround to what that was showing erarlier and i wouldnt count that out. but after dec it look bad.
We will get 1 month of cold in before winter is over, 1 month, 30 days. It’ll happen. At some point!!
EXACTLY what I was thinking 🙁
Wow. Did I click on the correct blog? I can’t believe what I’m reading. Everybody is giving up on Winter, the very day Winter officially BEGINS? Three weeks into December we haven’t been bombed, so you’re ready for Spring? Really? Oh how short our memories can be… Last year was a freak December, but typically this is how December goes. Folks, we never get into the heart of Winter here until late January. Just chill…
In my 7 winters in KY I have not seen more than 5 inches of snow at any one time, and never more than 12 in any one year. Disappointing…
Preach on steve. Many people feel the same way you do.
Here comes the “rolo waffle”. I smell it cookin’.
Geez! The first day of winter isn’t until tomorrow! 12:30 AM EST on Dec. 22nd winter solstice.
LOL! Usually CB is the one being optimistic. However, I appreciate him being conservative and smart. I know it’s a loose similarity, but the NAM and GFS are hinting at a closed low situation west of here and makes you wonder how much cold air it can pull in as it moves eastward. I don’t want to say we’re out of the woods just yet contrary to popular belief…
when i lived in ft thomas i had 19-21 (CVG recorded 28.5” for the month i think) inches of snow on the ground depending on where i measured in feb 2010, so far living in dayton late jan early feb was a pretty intense ice storm and this winter so far not different than anywhere else in ky or oh.
I rarely comment but am a regular reader, and was too surprised by this latest entry in the blog!
I don’t know much about weather but it does seem like snow has been frequent the past few winters, perhaps it is our turn for a mild winter. I’m one who likes one or two really big snows rather than frequent smaller ones, but it makes winter harsh all the same. I remember the first time I saw it snow pretty hard last year was like the first week of November… this year I have barely seen any snow, and when I did, it was because I had travelled into Northern Ohio! =(
But we still should get at least a few inches on the ground somewhere, sometime this season, right?!
I agree, WXMan! Yes, after the past few winters, it can be frustrating that we haven’t had our 1st accumulating snowfall but winter is by no means dead.
I need a like button here…
Really, chill out people. You too Chris, come on now…
Good grief Chris! Having a bad day? 🙁
It’s pretty dramatic to give up on winter on the very day it starts, just because we aren’t getting an early snow… isn’t it? Chin up, be patient! 🙂
Praying for snow! Not too much to bother people or make things difficult for family to get to each other…but just enough to make everything peaceful & white for Christmas morning when I go out to sing to the Lord.
Everyday for awhile now I have said the same thing has Chris is now saying…RAIN..no snow! Sorry Chris, but you have been hoping to much for this (I think your hopes have finally crashed this morning which led you to your statement about almost giving up on winter)..and the “real time weather” which is what has been happining every day so far nov.and dec. is mild and rain. Sorry, but even professionals get a “COME-ON MAN”.
SIDE NOTE: my KU bill stated that this current billing cycle avg temp this year was 45 and the same time last year 35.
I’m bumbed, I really thought I would get up this morning and see a new blog about white christmas..Oh well, sleep and dream again tonight!
ALL ABOARD !!!!!!!!!!!!
THE ARK WILL BE LOADING 2 BY 2 STARTING TODAY…LOL…
SLEIGH BELLS RING
ARE YA LISTNIN’
IN THE LANE
RAIN IS WHISTLIN’
A WATER-LOGGED SIGHT
WERE FLOATIN TONIGHT
FLOATIN IN THE WATER-LOGGED ARK TONIGHT!
what is this i hear? or read? wanting to throw a switch on winter and winter is actually just starting today for calendar purposes and snow fron nov. – jan. what happened to feb. and march? look what happened last year, snow in april… people it is just like christmas, we try to rush the seasons along and mother nature says, “wait a minute, not so fast.” well we start christmas in july and we are so tired of it by the time it gets here we feel like it has been here for 6 months. before we know it we will be asking for snow in july and by dec. if it has not snowed we will be ready for summer, heck lets just skip fall and go straight to winter, that is what we all do anyways, we skip halloween and thanksgiving and go straight to christmas……..chris i think you just need to go back to the drawing board after predicting an early start as in late nov./ early dec. to the winter season and so far it has not panned out that way. joe bastardi says we are going to get a blow torch for at least 2 weeks in jan. but he also thinks that feb. SHOULD be much colder with plenty of snow chances and a pattern where artic air at least has a CHANCE to get involved. so by no means is winter over and by no means is the christmas storm off the table and i for 1 can not believe that you are biting on the gfs or any model 5 days out…… i think you just needed a little pep talk, my friend……thanks and god bless from a dedicated reader and commentor from the town of wayne, wva.
rolo aint WAFFLING, i said ECHO i still believed SE E KY could see snow, and hey the models are still ways out and by tonite and more tomm could show a BIGGER STORM heading up just to east of us. it going deepen on which side off APPS it takes, we get a phhaser showing up then it on.
50 percent chance of snow on SUNDAY into monday is NOT WAFFLING, just agreeing with the expert that it dont look good now but hell yeaterday it did. so afternoon runs could flop bsack
fasr rest winter biggest snows i ever remember came in FEB intoearly march that when u get the BIG DADDYS mostly over my liftime cause of temps, 35 degrees a good snowing temp as its a HEAVY WET SNOW..
All I know is that my “dead” garden thinks it’s Spring. I happen to notice yesterday that I had lettuce and cabbage growing…I love snow but I am beginning to think it may never come…
The REAL question is this…How in the world can more than a dozen forecasting analyst predict much above snowfall & below norm temps for the entire Ohio Valley, yet, it all seems to be falling apart. True, we can no doubt pick up a heavy dumping of snow in late Jan. early Feb. & end up above normal snowfall. However, there’s NO way we end up in the below normal cycle of temps this winter. It just isn’t happening. So, unless we get a monster snow, or 2 very descent snowfalls, these “predictions” of a harsh winter for our area will all be a TKO, courtesy of the SE ridge (no blocking & no negative NAO) & most importantly the mucky brown weather gods!
I may be in the vast minority here, but I am fine with a mild winter. I would just as soon not drive in the snow.
I’m sorry. The only words that I got out of that entire blog are were: ‘keep’ + ‘hope’ + ‘alive’ 😉
Last year (2010) Lexington had the 8th snowiest year on record with over 34 inches of snow officially recorded. The winter of 2010-2011 was also in the top 10 snowiest.
Our climatology says a 6 inch snow is a big event in Central Kentucky. A 12 inch snow is a very rare event.
We have been spoiled by cold and snowy recent winters.
Smile about the mild winter. I just received my utility bill and I did!
Folks,
Though I agree with Chris, HE was joking- hence the 😉
Even though CB was joking, I agree and already mentioned this winter would make last winter seem like Old School.
I do not post much anymore, since nothing good to post, as far as snow. Central KY will be lucky to see some mix events and a clipper or two. Some other areas may fair better.
That is how I see it, so Bubba bust away 🙂
WOW ! Ive had a foot of snow this morning…(in the form of rain)!
” LIKE ”
I guess sometimes REALITY sets in…Face it folks we have lost Dec and looks like Jan too with the AO/NAO not cooperating and a host of other issues…On a happier note we had some of our biggest record breaking snows in March…So ya never know..
Shhhh…. You hear that? It’s Chris now agreeing with those who knew a white Christmas was not likely. Chris, just say you were wrong!
The way I see it is that Chris gets blasted either way…if he says snow and misses it people complain about hype, but if he says the winter isn’t delivering people gripe about him speaking any sort of negativity. It seems to me like the models aren’t behaving themselves this year and its throwing everyone for a loop, including Chris and I imagine he is getting frustrated as well.
i have said all along that i do not thinkl any met. out there knows where this winter is actually going. problem is as you just said is that chris will go out on a limb as much as 2 weeks out and sometimes that will come back to bite you. i know that back in the middle of nov. that he made a prediction and he thought every one would have their first accumalating snow by the 1st part of dec. well unless i am wrong, i have barely seen my first flakes much less my first snow fall.
Based on some posts here, seems CB unwittingly stirred up a hornets nest. Ouch.
My winter forecast is calling for above average snows for Louisville and points east. I’m not that concerned about this December being mild.
I looked at my notes for my winter forecast and saw that I had December as a fairly wet month with above average temperatures and a neutral to positive NAO. Snowfall was to be limited to less than 2″ for Louisville.
The challenging part for the rest of the winter will be trying to break out of this cycle, which so far does not favor us snowlovers.
The weather outside my window right now looks pretty darn nice. 58 and sunny. 🙂
CB, you’re not sounding too hopeful for this winter, in that regard, I hope you’re wrong! I don’t want to endure another Seattle-type winter of mild and rainy! Please come, snow!
Analogs aren’t matching up nearly as well and the normal trends you see here in EKY have all but disappeared. Its definately disappointing as a snow lover but I do appreciate that Chris is willing to go out on a limb since most others won’t take the time to do so. He’s on average great at predicting around here but we’re all thrown for a loop thus far. His dedication, hard work and knowledge is second to none!
new euro run has a massive storm and ky is in the bulls eye for some heavy heavy snow, and now is a good time to say i am not being serious.
Growing up in eastern Kentucky I firmly remember January and February being our snowiest months, we rarely ever got much snow in December. I remember vividly how I couldn’t wait for January to roll around. Sure, every now in then, some snow fell in December, especially around Christmas. However, snowy Decembers were very rare. I still live here in the beautiful mountains of southeastern Kentucky. If you want a lot of snow, come and live on top of one of our mountains and you will get your fair share. I love my mountains! Last year, I measured close to 40 inches of snow here in Leslie County! One storm, we had 11 inches in two days! Merry Christmas to everyone! We still have plenty of winter to go!
Being realistic is a nice idea. And chris is being realistic right now. Things just aren’t looking good. But no one should throw the towel in on winter. It starts tonight! Lighten up people. In 2008 we barely had any snow until the big one in March. Just wait it out and don’t get so worked up over December.
The thing that seems to have put people over the einter edge is where CB apparently is joking about maybe giving up on it. That would be un-CB, so seems some folks took him seriously.
where I am sitting, the sun is out and the temp is 62 deg ….. wow, i love it!!!!! Christmas day temps supposed to be 52, I am no rocket scientist but I don’t think snow will fall at that temp …… hahahaha Santa will have shorts and t-shirt on and will knock on the front door instead of coming down the chimney
I have lived in Central KY 48 years, Chris says he is a Nov thru Jan snow lover?? Maybe if your from northern Ohio. I agree with you about rare Dec snows & very rare Nov flurries. The good stuff in the past 48 years have come in Jan thru March/sometimes April 1987
Thanks Chris for all the hard work you do!
You are proof that parasites thrive in warm Weather 🙂
On the bright side, maybe the school kids will enjoy a summer break like we did growing up. Most have been getting out in June and going back the first of August. Schedules this year have taken snow into consideration and without snow the exit date could be early May. Good for them I guess.
Todd hit the nail on the head. Our big ice and snow storms traditionally are in Feb. and March. That’s why it’s hilarious to read these comments today. It’s like a basketball team giving up 3:00 minutes into the first half…it makes no sense. Technically it’s still autumn right now!
Half the garbage posts would be eliminated if NOT for December 2010’s weather extremes. We were all spoiled to the max last year.
chris where is your passion dont give up you have started a great thing here in this blog. i know we all have let the trouble makes on this blog get to us i know i sure did i used to comment all the time now i just read.i love coming on here and reading your thoughts so what if we do get excited we are alduts we can take it when we don’t get our snow.just keep up the hard work you put into this blog belive me you have a lot of people who are right there with you…..
The problem with this winter is there is no blocking to speak of. In fact, the AO has been positive since August and it shows no signs of changing.
Joe Bastardi, DT, Henry, and several others are warning of a warm, if not very warm, January. We’ll get a cold month relative to the average, but my bet is it’s March. Warm winters always have late Springs.
What happens in December, the winter will remember.
Sure, sure, sure…
Yesterday morning: “OLD SCHOOL SNOW”
Yesterday evening: “5 or more inches” “Heavy Wet Snow”
This morning: “50% chance of some snow”
well i went from windy/heavy rain, that caused creeks to swell this morning…to sunny 58*!!! on Dec. 21st. are you kidding me?!?!!! might as well enjoy it..lol. ahhh windows open and fresh breezes blowing in late dec.. is welcome at my house today…lol…
as poster above our biggest snow was always late Jn thru first of march growing up her in MANCHETER KY
now Ive not give up on a BIGONE, IM just sayiong as a whole these months will be above normal, we havent had a real winter since early 90s.
real winter is foot plus snows on ground with sigle digit to below zero highs and lows.
I remember numerous winters like this growing up.
im 38 years old and fact is my neices and nephews atre growing up[ and im afraid they never know what a REAL WINTER is.
I dont see it happening anytime soon, but a OLD SCHOOL snow still could happen into feb as temps moderate, u never get a big snow unless the temps are right around freezing or tad above, actually 34/35 a good BIG SNOW TEMP.
yea DEC usually not bad but we usually had several upslope snows by now, face it the pattern in a 10 year drought and will it change or will it go on for another 15 years, i bet it goes on for another 15 years.
we eventually get a ACT OF GOD OLD SCHOOL storm bu t the models will never be right, it be aa suprise with a low that forcasted to be weak and move on thru blows up and cuts off.
call me what you want, I’m loving this weather and hope it stays all winter long and we have early spring/summer
Merry Christmas to ya !!
All Richmond got was a bunch of ankle biters, so not sure how that is being spoiled. I will glaldy trade a bunch of ankle biters for several good snows. Word.
So THIS has where we are now? People call last year a great snow year? Richmond and most of central KY got a bunch of small snows last winter.
Talk about death from a thousands cuts- jeesh 😉
The cold air was really never in place Marginal at best even we got the storm. I don’t see anything the next 10 days this take us close to the halfway point of meteorological winter. Neither Lexington or Bowling Green have had a snowless winter ( trace doesn’t count) We have a good shot of making it halfway through meteorological winter ( Jan 15th) without any. The grinch and the heatmizer are out to make history as long as the AO/NAO are +. Will look at the EC weeklies Thursday night before making any judgments on if we have a shot on a snowless winter ( minus traces).
We multiply in warm weather as well!
We had 1 snow that was more than ankle biter but that was it. Personally i don’t think we will see anymore than 6 inches of snow for the winter i hope i’m wrong
Christmas day forecasts:
wlex 18…sunshine/40
NWS..JKL…(for S.ky) christmas eve…20percent snow/rain…christmas day 30percent snow/rain mix..
NWS LMK…for LEX area…sunny/45!
wtvq..36..says rain/snow mix south, sunny lex area high 44..
wkyt..27..isolated chance…40
wymt…….20percent mix 41..
so take your pick…lol…
I’m not all that upset by a lack of snow. What is troubling is all the talk here in early-mid November about cold and snow and analogs for “late November into December.” It HASN’T happened, not even close. We’ll probably have a few chances in Jan and Feb, but so far big let down.
yep bubba G it was a great snow year that how non of winters we hgave had pasy 20 years except for 2 i think.
well look at long range dont see nothing in febuaray but rain with some back ewnd snows and precip leaves.
FEBUARAY look to be warm.
so not even upslope looking good either, im saying we will break a record as fgar as no snow.
see alot of rain possible though.
i say we be lucky if we get 6 inches of snow for whole year.
I bet you all in January and Feburary we have a couple severe weather outbreaks and peole scream apocalypse w/o much snow. then we have an ice storm in mid feb, and then a big one in march. If im wrong, oh well, but kinda like 2008 again.
Um, February 15th ring a bell? We had close to blizzard conditions here. Almost a half foot of snow in the LEX area and winds over 30MPH. Besides that we’ve had a ton of 2-4″ snowstorms in the last few years. It’s Kentucky people, not the U.P. of Michigan. We have had some pretty deep snows here. This year….well it’s only December. Tomorrow is the Winter solstice. We have 3 or 4 MONTHS of winter to go. Chill out. All these people saying it’s going to be a “blowtorch” winter based upon 3 weeks in December are cracking me up. January could be BRUTAL and very easily could be. Or February could bring horrible ice storms. It happens all the time. Don’t get your shorts all twisted up. Yes, I wish there was snow axle-high to a ferris wheel for Christmas too, but there isn’t so let’s just enjoy what we have and get ready for the beat down that is coming… because it IS coming.
I’m sort of liking Pierce’s thinking there…well i’m not liking it because an ice storm is involved, but you get the idea.
I would like to see the WAY above normal precip pattern turn around. You can still have snow with below normal precip…last winter was proof. Although those were the dreaded ankle biters.
Not in my neck of the woods – I live 30 miles south of Lexington and have bareley seen a fraction of that. I wonder about their measuring?????