Good Monday everyone. We are moving into the new work week on a very snowy note across much of the eastern half of the country as a major winter storm cranks up. This storm will impact our weather over the next few days as accumulating snows will be likely. Many areas will pick up some good snow totals between now and Thursday as I suspect a lot of people will be looking at 4″ or more before all is said and done.

As we have been saying… this storm will come at us in three stages with the first coming today and primarily impacting our southern counties. Low pressure will throw enough moisture into these areas to produce light accumulating snows. It will be a day of watching the radar to figure out just how far north the snows will get. Odds favor the Tennessee and Virginia border counties getting in on a 1″-3″ snow with lighter amounts to the north with a sharp cutoff setting up not too far away from the accumulating snows. Pinpointing that line is nearly impossible to do until right up until the time it snows. One thing to remember is the radar will be a lot more bark than bite today.

I have some tracking tools to follow today’s snow…



Live Cams

Tn State Border Near Ft. Campbell


I-65 South of Bowling Green


Middlesboro
Middlesboro, Kentucky - Middlesboro Webcam

Nashville
I-24 East of I-65 Junction

Knoxville




I have no changes in the rest of the forecast period as low pressure number one heads to our southeast to near the Carolina coast by later Tuesday. An upper level low will scoot through the midwest and move right on top of us late tonight into Tuesday and spawns another weak low. This low should roll out of Tennessee across eastern Kentucky then into northern West Virginia by Tuesday night.

That will cause snow to break out from west to east later tonight ahead of the upper low and newly developed low pressure. Moisture from the southeastern storm is likely to ride northwest toward these two and we may actually see snow backing in from the south and southeast for a time later this evening into tonight.

A swath of accumulating snows will then work eastward across the region late tonight through Tuesday night with backlash snows and show squalls kicking in after it goes by. The GFS Ensembles show this well…



Yes… these two lows will get together for another powerhouse snowstorm for cities like New York and Boston where more than a foot may fall.

Around here… I have no changes to the accumulations…






I really like the forecast we have out right now. If I am going to make a change… it may come with the backslash snows and snow squalls as this is a pretty potent setup for Wednesday into early Thursday. The numbers may need to be increased during this time.

Many areas will likely tally up 4″ or more in total snowfall between now and Thursday. A blast of arctic air will move in during the Wednesday through Friday period with highs around 20 and lows that should hit the single digits again by Friday.

Even though we have a lot of snow and cold ahead of us this week… we have got to start talking more about the coming weekend into early next week. There is an increasing threat for an arctic front to make a run at us this weekend. This front may put the brakes on across the region by late weekend allowing for waves of low pressure to develop along it. That would bring more snow chances to us into the middle of next week. This may also allow for the bitter cold air the models have been advertising for mid January to move in here at some point.

And you guys thought I was playing when talking about a harsh January! This past weekend is proof enough that Old Man Winter is not playing around.

I will have more updates through the day. This is the time when you guys become VERY important to the weather community as giving us constant updates from where you live is better than any radar or computer model. This is especially true for our southern Kentucky folks who will be seeing a sharp cutoff to the accumulating snows today.

Have a great Monday and Take care.