Good Monday afternoon, gang. The dreary weather of today is soon to give way to the return of winter that comes in a series of fronts that cross the state in the coming days. This is likely to lead us into a harsh period of winter that takes us through the end of the month and into February.
Our first arctic front arrives Tuesday evening into Tuesday night with a band of light snow. Snow showers and a few squalls follow that up on Wednesday…
Several models are trying to develop a wave of low pressure along this boundary as we roll into early Wednesday. The Canadian Model is among them…
That would place parts of eastern and southeastern Kentucky in the area to watch for another band of light snow. Highs Wednesday will stay in the 20s on a gusty northwesterly wind. That gusty wind stays with us through the rest of the week into the coming weekend as additional clippers dive in.
The next one comes late Thursday into early Friday. The upper levels are a bit more favorable for a strong system to develop as the base of the trough swings in. The Canadian Model…
The European Model…
You can clearly see how both of those models are spinning up a low just to our east on Friday. That is also a serious shot of wind and cold diving in behind this system.
Moral of the story… winter comes back this week and you have the chance to put some snow on the ground where you live. The first chance comes Tuesday night and Wednesday and looks like the lighter of the two. The next comes Thursday night and Friday and has more potential than the first.
Additional troughs swing in next week and each of these look colder…
That is one deep trough by the end of next week and this will be the beginning of a harsh pattern for the rest of the month and into February.
I’m going to be as nice as possible with this next statement and this is NOT meant for everyone. The comments section is going to change and it starts now. I have asked and asked that you guys stick with weather or cordial talk amongst yourselves and stop with the trolling and complaining. This is not Facebook and it’s not your personal outlet to vent about whatever you are upset about.
I continue to get complaints from folks who are turned off by reading some of the comments on here. These complaints come from people who used to post regularly but now feel bullied and no longer post. I also get complaints from teachers who use this blog as a teaching tool.
As I’ve said.. I love you guys, but I have to do what I have to do. Commenting is a privilege and not a right… please remember that.
Enjoy the rest of your day and take care.
Thanks Chris!!!
Thanks Chris for all you do.
Chris,
I think you do an excellent job and I’m always on top of the weather reading your reports. I like knowing what the weather is no matter what mother natures may bring. Do they not know that we have to be informed to be prepared. Thanks for all you do and especially for doing YOUR JOB!!
Thanks for the update Chris. Looks like the cold is going to come roaring back with a real attitude! Maybe we can get some good snow to go with it!
Long time reader, first time posting.. You are the first thing I look at EVERY morning and I use your forecast and thoughts to help give my friends a “forecast” on FB.. Are you always right, of course not, but you seem to sniff out the pattern changes well in advance of local mets here in Louisville area.Please continue doing what you do best and that’s helping people plan their days with the weather involved…
Thanks Chris. I am certain I have posted a comment or two that were not appropriate. I’ll make certain I stick to weather stats that I hope are helpful to folks.
I do love your weather stats!
Thank you for all of the updates and your dedication to this blog! My students come by throughout the day to see what you have new to say, and we look at the models to see what we think is going to happen. We’ve all learned so much reading and trying to learn how the models work.
Mr. Bailey your website is amazing! I hope you don’t find this question disrespectful, because I don’t mean it that way at all. Why is it that the accuweather and weather.com forecast never really match up with yours? Don’t get me wrong, you beat their forecasts 9 out of 10 times. I just wonder what the thinking process is when it comes to what you forecast vs. what they forecast.
Is that clear or did I just confuse everyone? lol
I am not trying to answer for Chris, just pointing out my observations. It seems with those 2 sites and forecasts they adjusts daily and hourly. I have seen the weather.com for my site list 40’s a few days away and then it turn out that they adjust down to the 20’s or lower by that day. That happened with the arctic vortex forecast. Chris was saying for a long time it was coming (long time in terms of weather as things change so fast) and they had such warm temperatures forecast and slowly adjusted down.
And honestly, they had my area in the upper 40’s to low 50’s every day this week a couple days ago. Today they have Wednesday down to 32 and that was at 49 2 days ago in their forecast. They also have Friday at 32 and that was 51 2 days ago in their forecast.
Accuweather I have found to be the same.
I’ll take a crack at this. It’s a matter of resolution/granularity. National weather outlets such as any you named are focused on the country as a whole. This leads to fairly accurate large scale forecasts but not so accurate local forecasts. Chris is focused on telling you what’s going to happen in Kentucky on this blog, so you have a medium resolution forecast. If you had a met that forcasted just for your backyard you’d have a very high resolution forecast that one would hope would be very accurate.
Also, the large weather services tend to rely heavily on the models for local forecasts some spit them out verbatim with no human interpretation and these models can be way off.
I am not a met so take this with a grain of salt. But, I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night! 😉
I’ve wondered the same thing. I’ve been keeping track of the accuracy of those sites and a couple others versus the local mets. Those internet sites are basically worthless in forecasting 5 days out or more. For example on Fri I looked at Accuweather’s forecast for the next week (this week now) and it was very different from that of Chris. Much warmer and no snow chance at all. It’s that way a lot. I think it may be the model they are using that causes such a large gap. Probably the main reason is that those internet sites have to cover thousands of towns so it only uses the input from a computer model. A local met such as Chris, on the other hand, can take multiple models and expertise in that area’s weather patterns and make a more accurate forecast. I too would like to hear Chris give an explanation on this matter.
I agree with the warmer. All winter it has been that way. And last winter as well.
Now, I could see them only using computer model input but Chris shows plenty of models. And he could be showing the models with cold out 5-7 days and those forecasts are still always warmer out 5-7 days.
How much snow are we looking at with each clipper? Looks like a very busy winter pattern taking shape. Be safe everyone and slow down driving. Thank you CB for all you do.
Way to go, Chris!!
You da man, Chris! Way to speak the truth with love.
On a more meteorological note, I just can’t buy the Canadian. I want to, but it seems more like an outlier to me. I still tend to give precedent to the EURO. But I’m rooting for the snowiest model to win. 😉
I have followed you from WSAZ to here and you always seem to get the people who have ugly things to say. You said it with great clarity and dignity. I applaud your efforts. About the weather, I am excited to think there is still more snow coming. My motto: “If it has to be Winter, then it have to snow”! Dreary days day after day just depresses everyone and puts them in a bad mood. There is just something about snow that is peaceful. Thanks Chris for all you do!!!
What does the numbers on the models mean?
C.B. you do an awesome job with the weather.
I can always count on you for an accurate forecast.
Faye, in my very simple terms, the blue line, often called the 540 line indicated freezing or the place of a liquid/solid precip changeover in the air above you. You want to be on the cold side of the 540. In the maps on this post, you see how far south the 540 blue line is. THUS those models put us in a general all snow situation. Not always the case, but generally speaking. I am not a professional, just a participant.
I would say the ones who complain via email are also the ones who can spew out negativity but can’t take it when they are being called out on what they said. I love this blog and some of the people on here, but way to many people get their feelings hurt over nothing. When people post the same comment every 30 minutes to try and get their point across, it makes people mad and in turn they take out their anger on other posters. Look into hiring volunteer moderators, CB.
In weather related news, the temperature has dropped around 10 degrees since it started raining at my location.
Hopefully we can still have a comments section on this blog and Chris figures out a way to weed out the trolls and grouches. I’ve been reading Chris’ blog since Chris was in WV and think that it is a great educational tool. I feel like I’ve learned so much about weather models, terms, and forecasting from the blog. It gives a behind the scenes look of the mysterious world of weather forecasting, and is just plain fun to boot. I also have learned quite a bit from reader comments as well. It seems like there are some pretty sharp folks who post here and give their educated input. This is one of the only sites on the internet I come to several times a day.
Thanks Chris I used to love to get on here and talk weather with everybody now I’m scare to death of saying something wrong would love to have the old blog back
thanks, Chris.
ready for some fun snow tracking and another cold blast!
I read this blog a lot and have to say that I have learned a lot. I have always been into the weather and used to watch the weather channel and read up a lot. After coming to this blog and seeing the models and reading what was put about them I have gained a much better knowledge of what goes into forecasting and how to read the models. I have even looked at the models myself and picked up on a few things just based on the knowledge I have gained here. So this blog definitely has high value as an education tool in my opinion. You do a great job Chris and it is very much appreciated.
Chris, you are a scholar and a gentleman.
With that, I will simply say: I’m ready for spring, and most importantly, GO STEELERS..!
The latest runs of the gfs and nam seem to have zapped all the light snow threats for the rest of the week.
It will indeed be interesting to see how the models line up as time goes on.
That said, it’s of course still early. Models can and do change this far out. Furthermore, poster “MJ” (who works at NWS) recenty mentioned that the GFS model has a sweet spot of around 36-72 hours out while the NAM works best within the 24-30 hour period.
The European model is often preferable from about 72 hours on out.
I’m very appreciative to CB for this site and find it very informative. I would still visit even if comments were disabled.
NWS Jackson mentions a WSWatch possible for Tues. night/Wednesday! Bring it on!
Point me in the direction that you are seeing this. All I see in their forecast discussion is less than an inch for most of their area and maybe 1-2″ on the slopes in far east KY.
From JKL weather discussion:
DUE TO THE GOOD INSTABILITY AND UP SLOPE
COMPONENT AVAILABLE…WILL DECIDE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS EVENT WITH AN SPS
FOR NOW…AS A WSW MAY BE NEEDED IN A FEW MORE FORECAST PERIODS.
What areas did this cover??
as of 530ish this afternoon its mentioned here
http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=JKL&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1
WILL DECIDE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS EVENT WITH AN SPS
FOR NOW…AS A WSW MAY BE NEEDED IN A FEW MORE FORECAST PERIODS.
3:46 discusssion…..
When you click on the link over the “WSW” in the discussion it says it is a Winter Storm Message”. This could just be a Winter Weather Advisory too right? Surely they aren’t going to issue a Winter Storm Watch for what they are saying should be less than an inch of snow?
WSW can be winter storm watch, winter weather advisory, or winter storm warning. All winter weather products go out through the WSW product.
Thanks Chris for all you do.It is appreciated.I have followed you a long time.I hope our friends in Wva soon get all their water problems taken care of.Enjoy your day off.
Thanks Chris for all you do.It is appreciated.I have followed you a long time.I hope our friends in Wva soon get all their water problems taken care of.Enjoy your day off saw Jim on at 5pm.
Good job Chris! You are a great met and I hope the bad comments stop now. Now if we could just get some snow….
ROLO would be jonored to be THE BOG DETECTIVE!! I clean it up and sweep the trash out.lolll
I also say anybody that will go crying top the CHIEF saying there not reading anymore is plain pitiful.lol now if there vulgar words used I understand, but to be bullied on a BLOG/INTERNET is kinda funny.lolll
Chris I don’t know what we would do without you and this blog you keep up the good work we all know that little green envy hits some people hard they know you are the best and they just don’t know what else to do we have a weather family here that love this blog and you so you little green people go back where you come from….
Thanks Chris for your hard work ,Wkyt this blog keeps a man busy. I do wonder why a rain event last for hours upon hours even days but our snow events come through like speed demons in and out?
Pretty Sure it’s a curse. Somebody here in central ky ticked off the snow gods 16 or so years ago and they haven’t forgiven us yet.
Kudos, Chris, for taking a stand on the comments. I see it so often on many boards – – often read photography boards, and the same negative stuff goes on there. Long time reader, never a poster…until now! Love your blog and twitter posts. Thanks to you, I keep my family and friends prepared for upcoming weather – – they ask me what’s coming, knowing you keep me (us) informed!
Well I have been commenting since the beginning and I have never emailed Chris complaining about anyone. I try not to be negative but sometimes it’s SOOO difficult….and I tend to read the comments but if I see a certain user I will just skip it and not read it.
Mark that’s what we all need to do just skip then they will go away no trouble no fun…
Thanks for the updates, CB. I agree with the other Rhonda, if it has to be winter then let there be snow! I haven’t complained, but I do skip certain posters, and it’s true I don’t comment as much anymore because I don’t want to say the wrong thing. I still read, this is the first site I check in the morning and check it at least three times a day. People at work still come to my door and ask, “What’s Chris Bailey saying about the weather?” Thanks for the updates, the time is appreciated. Still hoping for a really good snow 🙂
Thanks Chris..
I am a teacher and I have followed your website for the past 4 years. I’m very appreciative of your thoughts and I use this site as a teaching tool…
This blog is the best I appreciate all the weather info for KY. If we had to depend on TWC we would be in trouble, they hardly ever mention us. It’s like Ky don’t exist , glad we have Chris to keep us up to date, and to the others that share there knowledge as well.
I agree about TWC! I always tell friends, “It must be gonna get bad, they mentioned KY on TWC”. LOL
No big snow likely for winter and now not even a little blog drama? 🙁 I guess then it is big snow that will wake Darth Bubba. IMO it is the lack of big snow that is the main overall problem, and folks are using some posters here as a proxy excuse for their latent snow blues. The blog drama will go away, but the snow blues likely will not for most. Only a snow that will make real snowmen will cure that 🙂
Darth Bubba is going to hibernate in the Death Snow Star until talk of ice or big snow comes and is more than just a glimmer of a model in the distance 😉
Be safe! 🙂 Peeeooooussssshh! (sound effect of the Darth’s Tie Fighter heading to the DSS).
NWS trying to sniff out something for Tuesday night into Wednesday. We’ll see.
http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=KYZ080&warncounty=KYC125&firewxzone=KYZ080&local_place1=&product1=Special+Weather+Statement#.UtSL0bTDuL8
Thanks CB. I have from time to time made a sports rant or two without any mention of wx, I plead guilty. I’ll try better to stay on topic.
Still, it’s good to know that a forum can have constructive dialog about wx while allowing people to disagree but without being disagreeable or trollish. I have learned so much about wx on KWC considering I’ve never taken any wx courses other than my Storm Spotter training sessions with the NWS; the only science I took in college was intro biology and intro geology. Again, thanks CB for all you do.
BTW, it’s not too early to start thinking about the spring tornado season.
Consider being a storm spotter with the NWS.
While radar is invaluable, there is still a need for “ground truth” to verify and give more urgent tornado warnings.
Check out NWS office websites under SkyWarn for more info.
Sorry for fragmented posts, but my other posts kept getting blocked.
I’m a fan, Chris, and have been since your WSAZ days! My teacher friends and I are always anxiously awaiting your next update with the same gleeful twinkle in our eyes as a kindergartner on Christmas Eve! Lol….. Blow off those naggers and complainers! Most likely, nothing makes them happy!
Chris,
Just do what you do. The trolls will go away when people stop feeding them with responses. As many have said, I look to this site every morning, and every night so I can plan ahead. Thank for you for this quick reference, as most don’t realize you do this on your own dime, and people should respect that.
CB Thanks for the update and letting all the posters that you are watching the comments. Hopefully I am not one of the bullish or one that complains about what you post. Generally I just complain about the weather that we have going on outside. Cold Rain stinks during the winter months. Just let it stay cold and snow.
Looks like things are going to get pretty ugly around here later this month and into Feb. Hope the trend buster shows its face.
THINKS SNOW!!!
Chris you do excellent job in keeping us inform of the weather. I always read your weather before going to work, during work and evening. You do awesome job. I just want to say thank you and to tell you what a great job you do. We couldn’t do with out you.
Thanks Chris look at your thoughts first thing every morning.
I enjoy this blog a lot…..it’s what helped inspire me to pursue a degree in meteorology. Chris’ expertise in the field is quite amazing!! Sure he’s wrong sometimes, all meteorologist are at some point. Making mistakes and having a busted forecast only makes you better in the long run!
Prime example of Chris’ forecasting and the “other guys”. We had a truck full of split wood and my husband asked if it was going to rain. I told him Chris said it would and the Weather.com said “Expect dry conditions for the next six hours.” They also had 0% chance of rain. The next morning, you guessed it, it had rained and so the moral of the story is…I don’t bother to check weather.com. Thanks Chris for your dedication (and patience). You would be amazed at how many people in Greenup Co./Boyd Co. area read your blog every day. It’s my FIRST stop every morning! May the Lord bless you!
Dodger says this is the best wx blog ever! Think snow! Dodger
I have been a reader of this blog from the beginning. I was in college at the time, and when it started, I didn’t even really know what a “blog” was. 🙂 After Chris moved to WV, I continued to follow it because it continued to be the best resource for KY weather, and no doubt the most interesting. I will have to say though, that in the beginning there was a core group of people that religiously commented, and actually some weather-wise friendships developed. Over the past few years, the comments have gotten more and more “tense” to the point that continued to read the blog and stopped reading any of the comments, which is a shame because I used to learn a lot from some of the people that used to post some really good explanations of what the models meant. Can’t we all just get along?
0z gfs looks better for more widespread snow.
I am new here to the site… Looks like we are in for a little snow!? YAY! I <3 Snow!! Would love to see around 6 inches here in my home town!!