Good Tuesday, folks. The first in a series of cold fronts will cross the state later tonight and will bring some light snow and much colder temps our way. This whole setup is just a preview to what I think will become a harsh pattern for the last of the month into February.

Let’s start with the clipper coming in tonight. This will have a burst of snow along and behind it as it dives in from the northwest. A few snow showers will kick in behind it on Wednesday…

GFS

Can we get some light accumulations from this? Yes… especially in the east. That’s where we still need to watch for  some enhanced snows from a weak wave to our east. Highs tomorrow will be in the 20s but will feel colder because of the wind.

The next system arrives quickly for later Thursday into Friday. Winds are going to be very gusty and could top 30mph as this clipper zips in. A band of light snow may surge out ahead of this by Thursday afternoon with another band along the actual front Thursday night into Friday morning…

GFS 4

There’s some pretty good energy swinging through the base of the trough and that could spawn another wave of low pressure later Friday. The Canadian continues to point in that direction…

CanadianThat can easily lay down some light accumulations across the entire region and could be a touch more if the wave develops. That’s a lot of wind and good shot of cold that follows.

I continue to be all systems go on another stretch of harsh winter weather for the last week or so of January into February. I have very little doubt that the worst part of this winter is still ahead of us. We’ve had the brutal cold and there is a strong possibility it returns during this period. There is also an increasing potential for us to see above average snowfall.

What am I seeing? The same thing I have been talking about since early Fall and that’s a building ridge into Alaska. I mentioned in the winter forecast that this would be the driving force of the winter and that’s been the case and continues to be the case. Check out the smoothed out European Ensembles for later next week…

Euro

As that ridge develops, it forces a deep trough into the eastern half of the country. That can deliver bitterly cold air once again. Here’s a more detailed example of how strong that ridge near Alaska gets…

Euro 2

That is just massive and it also tries to connect with some blocking showing up over the top of the globe. You will also notice the evolution of the troughs in the east… it’s one right after the other and there is lot of energy digging in. That’s different from the last visit by the Polar Vortex as it just overwhelmed the pattern with cold and then split town.

This type of a pattern can produce a extreme winter storm in the eastern part of the country. That doesn’t necessarily mean it has a huge impact on our weather, but it simply means this setup can go wild.

I will update at some point later today. Make it a good one and take care.