Time posted: 12:04 pm

Monday Afternoon Update

Good afternoon, everyone. I wanted to drop by for a quick update on the rounds of storms moving across the region. Nothing has changed with my thought process, as the flash flood potential is elevated over the next few days.

In the near-term, the short range model known as the RAP is developing targeting areas of central and eastern Kentucky for some big rains through tonight…

Keep in mind that models can vary greatly with rainfall placements and totals. Exact placement of thunderstorms is a tall task, but it’s the trend to look for.

Even on the larger scale models, we are seeing some very hefty totals. The NAM over the next 3 days as some wild numbers…

Just be on guard for the potential for flash flooding from any storm that targets the region.

A few of the storms may also be strong or locally severe. Here’s the latest from the Storm Prediction Center…

Tuesday…

I will have the latest on WKYT-TV starting at 4pm. In the meantime, let’s do some tracking…

Current watches
Current Watches

Possible watch areas
Current MDs

Have a great rest of your day and take care.

3 Comments

Time posted: 2:03 am

Strong Storms and Flash Flooding Possible

Good Monday, everyone. Rounds of showers and thunderstorms continue continue to roll across the bluegrass state, bringing the increased threat for flash flooding. These storms may also produce local high winds and hail. It’s a stormy pattern that’s locked in for the foreseeable future.

Storms come at us in waves from northwest to southeast this week. Give the potential for repeat action over the same areas, the flash flood potential is elevated. The exact track of each storm complex will determine who has the best threat for high water issues to develop. Here’s my initial look at who has the best shot at flash flooding…

In addition to the high water risk, some of the storms may be strong or severe. Wind damage will be the primary severe threat to watch for. Here’s today’s Severe Weather Outlook from the Storm Prediction Center…

A similar look may be with us on Tuesday…

The blog is all set to track today’s storms…

Current watches
Current Watches

Possible watch areas
Current MDs

Have a great Monday and take care.

2 Comments

Time posted: 1:38 pm

Watching The Flash Flood Potential

Good afternoon, everyone. I wanted to drop by for an update to increase the awareness about the potential for flash flooding issues to develop over the next few days. Rounds of thunderstorms will continue to move across our region, and these will be loaded with torrential rains.

I’ve talked about this pattern for a while now, so it shouldn’t come as a surprise. That said, some of the numbers on the forecast models are a little concerning.

The new Hi Res NAM  is showing several inches falling across central and eastern Kentucky through Tuesday. The max rainfall number on this run is 8.3″…

The Hi Res RPM model has similar totals showing up across the Ohio Valley into central and eastern Kentucky…

These storms are coming in waves and are NOT “pop up storms” as described by one local NWS office. SMH.

Watch the flash flood threat over the next few days. In addition to the flash flood potential, some of the storms may be strong or locally severe. Here’s the outlook from the SPC for the rest of today…

Here’s the Severe Weather Outlook for Monday…

I have you all set to track today’s rounds of storms rolling in from the northwest…

Current watches
Current Watches

Possible watch areas
Current MDs

Enjoy the rest of your Sunday and take care.

2 Comments

Time posted: 2:41 am

Rounds Of Storms Increase

Good Sunday, everyone. It’s another steam bath of a day out there, but we have more in the way of showers and storms to deal with. Some of these storms will be on the strong side, putting down torrential rain at times. This setup will likely carry us through much of the upcoming week.

Today’s storms will be coming at us in clusters from northwest to southeast. A few strong to locally severe storms will be possible. The Severe Weather Outlook from the Storm Prediction center shows the low end severe potential..

The setup for Monday looks a lot like the one we have going on today, with northwest to southeast moving storms. Once again, a low-end severe threat is with us…

This flow continues through Tuesday, with the potential for storms to put down a lot of rain in a short amount of time. The NAM is showing the rainfall hot spots that can cause issues….

The GFS rain numbers through the entire week are more broad looking with the hefty totals…

The Canadian shows some hefty totals showing up in those northwest to southeast corridors…

Obviously, the flash flood threat is increased in the coming days, and through next week.

A much cooler look continues to show up after next weekend, but it’s all about the storms until then. Let’s do some Sunday boomer tracking…

Current watches
Current Watches

Possible watch areas
Current MDs

Make it a great Sunday and take care.

1 Comment

Time posted: 1:44 am

Tracking Weekend Storms

Good Saturday, everyone. We continue to feel the steam settling back into the bluegrass state, with increasing amounts of showers and thunderstorms kicking in. This action could wind up causing a few issues in the coming days, and could be a signal for the summer just beginning.

Let’s begin with today and roll forward. Highs will be back in the mid and upper 80s for many, with scattered showers and storms going up. A few of the storms may be strong or locally severe. Here’s today’s outlook from the Storm Prediction Center…

Additional rounds of showers and storms will be with us on Sunday and last into, at least, the first half of next week. Once again, some of the storms may be strong and put down heavy rainfall. The models are pointing toward this potential…

That’s from the new version of the GFS and shows the northwest to southeast orientation of the heaviest rains. If we add the following week to the mix, you can see a continuation of that setup…

We are clearly going back into the flash flood “look” over the next few weeks. I will have your tracking toys in a bit. First, let’s talk about the summer that’s just underway.

The early Summer trend is for the heat to be in the western Mississippi Valley down into Texas. Cool shots have been showing up from the Ohio Valley north and east. That may very well be the signal for much of the summer. The European Weeklies through July 23rd show this well. Here are the temperature departures…

That puts Kentucky in the near normal category, but also puts us in the very wet category…

Those numbers are way above normal for our region…

The control run of the European through the same time period is even wetter…

This kind of setup would lead to a very active summer thunderstorms season, with flash flood potential written all over it.

Speaking of storms, track what’s out there today…

Current watches
Current Watches

Possible watch areas
Current MDs

Have a great Saturday and take care.

6 Comments