Time posted: 1:00 am

Tracking Hurricane Irma

Good Sunday, everyone. Hurricane Irma is slamming the state of Florida today, and should cause devastation from south to north. The greatest emphasis of this storm will be across The Gulf Coast side of the sunshine state.

Before I get you all the tracking tools you need on Irma, a few thoughts:

  • The remnants of Irma will work into the region by Tuesday and hang around for a few days.
  • Rounds of showers and thunderstorms begin Monday night and should carry us through the rest of the week.
  • Heavy rains will be possible, but this shouldn’t produce nearly as max totals as Harvey did here. Still, we will need to be on guard for some local high water issues.
  • Winds will be rather gusty and may reach 40mph at times on Tuesday, especially across the southern parts of the state.
  • Hurricane Jose looks to patiently wait behind Irma and may threaten the east coast next weekend.

I’m starting the tracking tools with the interactive radar. Take control of it as you please, and you can even pull up live storm cam feeds from south Florida as Irma comes ashore…

 

Hurricane Infrared GOES East

cone graphic

time of arrival graphic

Make it a great day and take care.

20 Comments

Time posted: 1:33 am

Watching Powerful Hurricane Irma

Good Saturday, everyone. Hurricane Irma continues to be the center of the weather world and for good reason. This storm is slowly working toward Florida and will be causing destruction from south to north. By early next week, Irma will throw rain and wind into Kentucky.

The storm is likely losing some early day steam along the shoreline of Cuba. As it starts to turn north, it goes over the super warm waters of the Straits of Florida, strengthening along the way. Here’s a look at where the storm is now…

Hurricane Infrared GOES East

The forecast track from the National Hurricane Center continues to slowly ease this thing toward the Gulf side of the state. This is a devastating path for areas like Naples, Fort Meyers and possibly Tampa. But, the storm is so huge, the entire peninsula of Florida may experience hurricane force winds…

cone graphic

This run of the NAM shows how devastating the hit will be, and how the first rain bands arrive in Kentucky late Monday…

That shows some pretty heavy rains in Kentucky Monday night. Here are the totals by Tuesday morning…

The GFS run has a similar track and shows the lingering rains from a decaying Irma in our region…

Here’s the rainfall map from that run…

I’ll get you another update on late today. Make it a good one and take care.

38 Comments

Time posted: 7:40 pm

Friday Evening Update On Irma

Good Friday, folks. Hurricane Irma continues to target Florida for a devastating hit and the remnants will likely blow into Kentucky early next week.

Irma continues to push westward as a strong Cat 4 hurricane and may brush Cuba before turning due north. The NHC is now doing what I suspected and forecasting Irma to become a Cat 5 again before moving into south Florida…

Hurricane Infrared GOES East

The forecast track from the National Hurricane Center is a worst case scenario for Florida and brings this thing toward Kentucky…

cone graphic

This is a devastating track for much of the Florida Peninsula, and that’s likely an understatement.

The latest models continue to bring rain and wind from Irma all the way into Kentucky. The NAM shows the first bands arriving late Monday…

The GFS is similar and shows the lingering low…

 

I’ll see you tonight with another update. Take care.

 

 

6 Comments

Time posted: 1:48 am

Hurricane Irma Is Likely To Impact Our Weather

Good Friday to one and all. We continue with a gorgeous stretch of October weather here in early September. While we enjoy the good stuff, folks across Florida are preparing for a devastating hit from Hurricane Irma. This storm has a chance to impact our weather early next week.

We know the weather around here is nice, so there’s really no reason to go into it very much. Just enjoy it.

Irma continues to push into the Bahamas today…

Hurricane Infrared GOES East

The forecast track from the National Hurricane Center is a worst case scenario for Florida and brings this thing toward Kentucky…

cone graphic

Given the record water temps in the Bahamas and near Miami, I would not be surprised to see Irma come in as a Cat 5.

The latest GFS model holds with earlier runs and shows the impact on Kentucky…

The Canadian is VERY similar…

The latest Hurricane Models are tightly clustered on a similar scenario playing out…

It goes without saying that this will likely cause major destruction across Florida. The Miami area looks to be in serious trouble, perhaps taking the brunt of the storm surge and highest winds.

Hurricane force winds may engulf the entire Florida peninsula from south to north Saturday into Sunday. We may see hurricane force winds deep into Georgia and South Carolina. Tropical storm force wind gusts may come all the way into Tennessee and southern Kentucky.

The prime time for impact on Kentucky comes Monday night and Tuesday. Bands of heavy rain and storms will likely work through here, but the rain shouldn’t come close to producing what Harvey did here. Winds may be greater, and that’s something for us to watch as we get closer.

What’s left of Irma will then weaken over us Wednesday into Thursday.

I will have another update later today, so check back. Have a good one and take care.

15 Comments

Time posted: 7:36 pm

Thursday Evening Update

Good Thursday evening, folks. As we continue to enjoy an incredible run of October weather here in early September, it’s all eyes on Hurricane Irma. This storm continues to be a monster and will head toward Florida this coming weekend.

The satellite image below shows Hurricane Irma taking center stage, with Hurricanes Jose and Katia making cameos…

Hurricane Infrared GOES East

The forecast track from the National Hurricane Center is a worst case scenario for Florida and brings this thing straight toward Kentucky…

cone graphic

This track is similar to the latest run of the European Model…

The European Model then brings what’s left of Irma into the lower Ohio Valley and Tennessee Valley.

The GFS is now very close to the European model and the NHC forecast…

The Canadian does too…

The latest Hurricane Models spaghetti plot are all tightly clustered toward a similar scenario…

No doubt about it… This is a worst case scenario for the state of Florida.

I will update things again tonight. Make it a good one and take care.

5 Comments