Time posted: 2:15 am

Watch The Heavy Rain Threat

Good Tuesday to one and all. We continue to deal with a very tropical air mass across the bluegrass state. This air comes with an increase in showers and thunderstorms, leading to tropical downpours. These downpours can cause some local high water issues over the next week.

Today’s action will more widespread than what we had  on Monday. Again, watch for the slow-movers than put down a lot of rain in a hurry…

As mentioned in earlier posts, it’s probably not going rain every day where you live. Still, rounds of storms will be noted with some days being more widespread than others. This pattern actually continues through this weekend into  early next week. With this soupy setup, torrential rains are possible at times.

The models through early next week are spitting out some hefty totals. Here’s the GFS…

The Canadian…

The Canadian does so without help from any potential tropical development in the Gulf next week, but it still has something…

With deepening troughs digging into the country next week, temps will likely skew cooler than average for a lot of folks. The numbers from the GFS are much cooler than normal…

That may be just a bit too cool, but the average of the 21 member GFS Ensembles aren’t too far off…

Have a great day and take care.

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Time posted: 1:13 am

Storms Pack A Heavy Rain Punch

Good Monday, folks. We are rolling into a tropical week of weather across the commonwealth of Kentucky. Steamy temps and periods of heavy rain producing thunderstorms highlight the weather menu. Beyond this week, the busy pattern continues with deep troughs digging into the country.

The storm threat does increase a bit today and any storm that goes up can put down some very heavy rains…

Thunderstorms will continue to increase in the coming days, as deep tropical moisture takes control of our atmosphere. This means the storms ahead will have even more moisture to work with, upping the ante for local high water issues.

Again, it’s not going to rain everyday where you live. When it does, its gonna be heavy. There is cloudburst potential with the storms over the next week.

A dip in the jet stream moves in here later this weekend and early next week. Will something tropical be developing in the Gulf during this time? That’s certainly possible.

The Canadian can always be counted on to blow up a big tropical system…

The GFS is trying to do something similar…

Beyond that, deep troughs really dig in across the eastern half of the country…

For the millionth time in the past few months… This is not a summer for any one pattern to lock in for the long haul. It’s just not. That gives us a balancing act with temps and a busier than normal summer storm and flash flood season.

Make it a great day and take care.

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Time posted: 2:43 am

A Tropical Week Ahead

Good Sunday, everyone. Steamy temps are rolling into the bluegrass state and this will lead to rounds of showers and thunderstorms firing up. Overall, the pattern ahead will have a pretty good tropical feel to it, and that could wind up getting us in a bit of trouble.

Kentucky has a summer flash flood season and we are entering that right now. I’ve been talking about how the storms ahead will have the potential to cause some issues on that front. Why do I say that? I’m watching a potent system digging into the Midwest with a deep tropical surge of moisture coming from the Gulf of Mexico.

That shows up well on this illustration…

That setup will lead to rounds of showers and storms kicking in throughout the week, with the action increasing as the plains trough digs in.

Scattered storms will be possible on Monday, with a greater threat from Tuesday through the rest of the week and into next weekend. With the deep tropical moisture in place, thunderstorms will have ample juice to help put down a lot of rain. This has been covered extensively in recent days. No, it’s not constant rain and it may not rain every day where you live. But, when storms do go up, they’re gonna put it down.

Later this weekend into early next week, the pattern is likely to throw a deeper trough into the eastern part of the country. This may occur as a tropical system tries to develop in the Gulf of Mexico. Here’s the European..

The Canadian…

Regardless of any potential Gulf system, the models are pretty gung ho on a deep trough developing across the eastern half of the country. The GFS Ensembles show this well…

Again, there’s no sign of any one pattern locking in for the long haul. That back and forth setup likely spells ample amounts of summer rain, and potentially some issues because of it.

Have a great Saturday and take care.

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Time posted: 1:06 am

Steamy Leads To Stormy Next Week

Good Saturday and welcome to the weekend. It’s a full blown summer feeling weekend here in the bluegrass state as temps really take off. As steamy air slips in here early next week, thunderstorm chances are really going to start to ramp up.

Today features sunshine and 80s across the entire region. Humidity levels are still low, but will increase some into Sunday. Highs will range from 85 to 90 in most areas.

Monday and Tuesday will see the humidity levels really jump up and we will be talking about a heat index. Highs range from the upper 80s to low 90s, with the hottest in the north and west.

The pattern next week into next weekend is one loaded with thunderstorm chances. The Gulf of Mexico will be wide open for business, with a trough digging in here by the weekend. This can lead to some pretty big rainers during this time. The models are showing some healthy numbers during this time…

A flash flood threat is likely to develop with the setup I’m seeing.

I mentioned a trough digging in here by next weekend. Check it out…

The pattern into the following week will try to throw another deepening trough into the country…

Once again… It is going to be awfully tough to get any one pattern to lock in this summer. The pattern is progressive, leading to ample storm chances.

Make it a great Saturday and take care.

7 Comments

Time posted: 1:43 am

Steamy Summer Temps Before Storms Return

Good Friday to one and all. We’re rolling our way into the weekend and we have a surge of summer temps rolling into town. This big jump in temps will carry us into next week, but thunderstorms are going to cut into that in a hurry. As a matter of fact, this pattern is taking on another stormy look in the coming weeks.

Today will feature upper 70s to low 80s across the state with a mix of sun and clouds. I can’t rule out a storm in the far north at some point this evening, but most of the area looks good.

This weekend will find temps deep into the 80s with a 90 possible in the west by Sunday. The real heat with this setup is going to be well to our west and north. The illustration from the European shows how the REAL heat stays way from us in the coming days…

You can see how the cooler air starts to flex some more muscle later next week into the following weekend. That’s when a deep trough tries to dig back into the east, pushing the heat into the west…

Ahead of that trough, rounds of showers and thunderstorms will begin to develop early next week, and continue to increase through the week. Some heavy rainers are a good bet with that setup.

After that trough digs in, watch the Gulf for something trying to develop…

Again, this is a pattern that may end up causing us some issues going forward.

Have a great Friday and take care.

11 Comments