Time posted: 1:49 am

Tracking Milder Temps and Cold Fronts

Good Sunday, everyone. Much better weather is pushing into the state today as milder winds start to blow. The shots of milder air will ramp up over the next few weeks, but the overall pattern remains fairly active. This will send numerous cold fronts our way during this time.

Highs today reach the low 60s west with near 50 in the east. Skies should stay partly to mostly sunny.

The 60s are a good bet for Monday with a 70 in the west. Clouds will increase with a shower threat lurking late in the day. This is ahead of a cold front moving in here on Tuesday. That front pretty much lays down right on top of Kentucky with a wave of low pressure running along it.

The end result will be showers and some rumbles of thunder…

Chilly air settles in for the middle of the week, but we things will quickly go the other way by Friday and Saturday. 70 is possible during this time.

While the overall pattern will be skewed warmer than normal, quick hitting chilly shots will also be moving across the country. Watch this animation through the rest of the month into the first few days of April…

That spells a lot of shower and thunderstorm action across our part of the world.

Here’s a front arriving next weekend..

Another potent system drags a front in here a few days later…

And a few days after that one, comes another similar looking storm…

Buckle up for a busy storm season!

Enjoy your day and take care.

4 Comments

Time posted: 3:50 am

Stormy Spring Pattern In The Making

Good Saturday, everyone. As we continue to climb out of this crazy cold pattern we’ve been in over the past few weeks, it’s time to focus on where we go from here. A much milder pattern final takes over in the coming days, but comes along with an active weather pattern. This is likely the sign of a very stormy spring in the making.

Let’s start with today and some chillier winds blowing in from the northwest. This is nothing like last week, but we will still need the jackets. Watch for isolated showers in the north and east.

Sunday looks fantastic with sunshine and normal temps across the entire region. Things will then turn even milder on Monday with 60s and the potential for some low 70s. Winds will become gusty as a weak front settles in from the north. That should create some scattered showers and thunderstorms…

After a seasonal brand of chill for the middle of the week, the setup across the country then starts to skew warmer than normal. Check out the warm shots showing up on the GFS Ensembles through the rest of March…

With the warmer air will come several storm systems rolling across the country. Each of these can create thunderstorms from the plains into our region. The first arrives in about a week from now…

Another one should follow closely behind a few days later…

The above setup matches up VERY well with my overall thinking for the spring, and matches up with the CFS seasonal model. The CFS rainfall map through April shows my severe weather concern…

That’s the look one would expect in this stormy setup. With the Gulf of Mexico water temps being crazy warm, that should aid in the severe weather threat for our region and into the south.

Temps from the same CFS run through April look warmer than normal…

A warm and very stormy spring is likely waiting in the wings.

Enjoy your day and take care.

14 Comments

Time posted: 1:58 am

Some Ugly Weather Ushers In Better Temps

Good Friday, everyone. Today is shaping up to be a pretty ugly weather day across the bluegrass state, but it’s a day we must sacrifice in order to begin to crank up the temps. Milder air is slowly but surely pushing back in, with the potential for some downright warm spells lurking over the next few weeks.

Temps early this morning will be tricky for parts of central and northern Kentucky. This may lead to a brief period of light frozen precipitation before plain old showers take over…

I-71/I-75 at Mt. Zion Rd.
Near Covington
I-71/I-75 @ Mt. Zion Rd

I-275 at Mineola Pike
Near Covington
I-275 @ Mineola Pike

I-275 approaching KY 20/Airport
Near Covington
I-275 East of KY 20/Airport Exit

I-75 @ Newtown Pike
Lexington

US 60 @ US 460
Frankfort
US60 @ US460

Temps will climb pretty much all day and may hit 50 by the evening hours. Winds will be a little gusty as well.

As our front settles through here on Saturday, colder air filters into the region. The NAM afternoon temps show some upper 30s across the north and east…

That may be partly due to some clouds and scattered showers lingering. Can the mountains get in on a snowflake or two? Maybe.

Sunday turns much milder with highs in the 50s for many, with low 60s in the west. Monday will see temps deep into the 60s with some low 70s also showing up.

A weak cold front moves in Monday night and Tuesday with a band of showers and thunderstorms. That front never quite clears the region, but does knock the temps down several degrees by the middle of the week.

Warmer air is poised then to surge in here after that…

Temps can really take off late next week into the following weekend. It may also be complete with  some strong thunderstorms during this time.

The increase in temps should also lead to an increase in the thunderstorm action over the next few weeks. The Ensembles continue to show some good rains across our part of the world…

Have a great day and take care.

9 Comments

Time posted: 7:28 pm

Thursday Evening Update

Good evening, gang. Milder winds are ready to kick in across the region, with the potential for a big time warm up lurking for next week. There is some wilder ready to come with the milder as frequent storm systems look to impact the region.

The first system rolls in on Friday with gusty showers. There’s the chance for a touch of frozen stuff early on before temps rise. Those colder valleys could get in on a touch of freezing rain.

Showers will pull out of town on Saturday with a seasonal chill in the air. That won’t last long with temps on the rise for Sunday. Highs reach the 50s for many, with 60s in the west.

This sets the stage for a much milder surge on Monday. Many areas have a shot at 70…

That’s ahead of a cold front that brings showers and some storms in here Monday night into Tuesday…

The chill behind that stays to our north, with a small cool down for the middle of the week. From there, temps should work back into the 60s to near 70 by the end of the week. That’s ahead of another system that brings showers and storms our way late in the week…

As I mentioned in my earlier updates, the pattern is going to skew warm with big areas of low pressure bowling across the country. Some of these can become big time storm and rain makers, kinda like this one…

Have a great evening and take care.

2 Comments

Time posted: 1:22 am

Milder Air Brings Another Active Setup

Good Thursday to one and all. We are slowly pulling ourselves out of this frigid air mass we’ve been in for the past week. Much milder air is ready to surge back in and this will bring about another very active weather pattern for the next few weeks, at least.

Sunny skies will be with us today as highs reach the 40s for most, with a few low 50s in the west. Overall, this is pretty darn good.

Friday will find showers quickly increasing across the state…

Temps will climb toward the low 50s by late afternoon and evening, just ahead of the front. There isn’t much cold air coming behind this boundary, but it can set up a nice temp gradient with 40 in the north and mid 50s south and west.

Sunday’s weather looks great with highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s as winds become gusty from the southwest. Monday should be even warmer with 60s for everyone and 70s across the west.

That’s ahead of a cold front bringing a line of showers and storms to town Monday night and Tuesday.

The overall pattern is turning warmer and very active. We are seeing a setup with “bowling ball” upper lows moving from west to east across the country…

That is how you can get some decent severe weather outbreaks from the plains into our neck of the woods. This potential shows up on the 2 week GFS Ensembles rainfall outlook..

Have a great day and take care.

7 Comments