Kentucky Weather Center

Winter Storm Warnings Expand

Chris Bailey — Mon, 08 Feb 2010 22:29:00 GMT

Good evening everyone. I wanted to drop by for a quick update to show you how the Winter Storm Warnings have now expanded to include much of the state though Wednesday. The southern counties are under a Winter Weather Advisory during the dame time. Here is the updated map...

Snow will be breaking out from southwest to northeast later this evening into the overnight and will become mixed with some ice across the south. You can track this mess in here with regional radar...

Here are the headlines of this thing...

- Snow develops overnight with some ice possible by morning across the south. This will be a high impact event for the morning commute.

- My snow map from my last update for late tonight and early Tuesday remains unchanged.

- Temps will try to go above freezing for a few hours in most of the area... this would mean a switch to some freezing rain or light rain will take place... especially across the south and east. The deepest moisture may already be over by this time.

- Arctic front to slam in here Tuesday evening. Temps will drop by more than 10-15 degrees in just a few hours as any rains go back to snow.

- Snows will move back in Tuesday night and last through Wednesday night. High snow ratios will be with us meaning we maximize the amount of precip that falls. Several inches of snow will fall during this time.

- Winds will crank up to 30-35mph into Wednesday creating blowing and drifting snows. Wind chills will be near 0.

Overall... this is a high impact winter storm that will hit the region over the next few days. I will have more updates as needed later this evening so check back. Take care.

Winter Storm Alert

Chris Bailey — Mon, 08 Feb 2010 17:52:00 GMT

Good afternoon everyone. We are now in full blow Winter Storm Alert mode for a system that will come at us in two pieces over the next few days. The first one comes at us overnight into the first part of Tuesday with snow and a mix of snow and freezing rain developing from south to north. This will make for a VERY messy Tuesday morning commute across the entire region.

Winter Storm Watches and Warnings and advisories are out for much of the state...

Northeastern Kentucky will be included in something before all is said and done as the NWS in Charleston jumps on board.

We have been talking about this system for several days now and the model runs continue to come in colder and colder the closer we get. This is a testament to the low level cold air that is already in place. Deep moisture will be riding northward into the region quickly this evening and overnight leading to widespread snow developing. This will switch to a period of Freezing Rain and possibly rain across parts of eastern and southeastern Kentucky for a few hours Tuesday as temps make a run toward freezing or just above for a few hours. That won't last long as an arctic front blasts through here with a dramatic temp drop by late in the day.

Here is my first call for snowfall from the first part of this system...

My confidence level is not very high right now with the snow totals as I am worried about being too conservative across the east and south. I have lower totals in these areas anticipating a little greater ice potential and then rain the farther south you go.

The second half of the storm cranks up Tuesday night through Wednesday night with several inches of snow likely across the entire area. This will be a dry snow that will blow and drift as winds reach 30-35mph. Many areas will see 6 or more inches of snow over the next 48 hours.

Wind chill readings will be very low from late Tuesday into Wednesday as well, so keep that in mind.

I will have more updates later this afternoon so be sure to check back. Until then... take care.

Snow and Ice Likely Tonight & Tuesday

Chris Bailey — Mon, 08 Feb 2010 08:09:00 GMT

Good Monday everyone. We have a whole lot of wintry weather to talk about as we have a very busy weather week that is just beginning. Our first item up for bids is a system that will roll in here later tonight into Tuesday and this is likely to be a high impact system that brings snow and some ice to the region. Then we watch more widespread snows and arctic air surge in here Tuesday night and Wednesday.

The system moving in tonight has prompted Winter Weather Advisories to be issued for of Kentucky. This begs the question... should the blog be in Winter Storm Threat mode? I am toying with it as I write this. Regardless of modes... the morning commute Tuesday is going to be nasty across the entire region. I have a map showing the wide variety of weather I am expecting...

I want to stress something here and that the bust potential with this is the opposite of our last storm as cold air is already in place and the models all coming in colder with each run. This could mean much more snow and ice than the map shows into early Tuesday bringing us to the cusp of winter storm material. Several inches of snow will be very possible for the areas that stay all snow. I am also concerned about the freezing rain threat... especially considering we have a frozen ground. The best threat for a switch to all rain will be the farther south you live and that all rain line will try to creep north by early afternoon Tuesday.

The NAM is showing the 850 0 celcius line and the 540 thickness lines staying to our south through the enitre event. This strongly suggests mainly frozen precip...

NAM Tuesday Morning

Tuesday Afternoon

Tuesday Evening

The GFS Ensembles are also having a tough time scouring out the low level co air that is alread in place...

That is one nice arctic shot blowing in here later Tuesday into Tuesday night. Temps may drop by as much as 15 degrees in just a few hours when the front moves through where you live. Winds will gust up and may reach as high as 30-3mph leading to dangerously cold wind chills. Snow showers and squalls will become widespread from Tuesday night through Wednesday night and this can lay down some decent snow totals. This snow will be aided by a strong northwesterly wind flow and a high liquid to snow ratio because of the cold air in place. Some blowing and drifting of whatever snow falls is likely on Wednesday.

I have made a map of what I expect during this time in terms of a general snowfall...

I am not putting numbers out just yet... but I refer to a light snowfall as 1"-3". Again... that would NOT include the totals from tonight and Tuesday and is only for Tuesday night through Wednesday.

A few words about other weather items on my mind...

- Yet another Blizzard is likely from the DC area to New York and Boston by mid week. Amazing!!

- This pattern may bring snows into Florida late this week!

- We have to watch the southern system on Friday... that looks to stay to our south right now. But a weak system may dive in later Friday or Saturday from the northwest with some light snows.

- The pattern next week continues to be primed for snowstorms across the eastern half of the country. The retrograding look to things suggest ground zero next week may be farther west than where it sets up this week and could put this region in the middle of the game.

- If we don't hit freezing Tuesday... we may not do it for a week... at least! This is a COLD pattern for most of the country as February goes right to the place the blog forecast it to go to weeks ago.

Speaking of the snows across the DC area... check out this cool time lapse snowfall video...

I will have several updates out today so please check back. If you have travel plans later tonight into Tuesday and Wednesday... you really need to stay on top of this as this will be a high impact event. You can also look for some quick updates through Twitter so sign up to follow me @KentuckyWeather. My twitter feed is also in the top right hand corner of this blog.

Take care.

Winter Storm Watch North and West

Chris Bailey — Sun, 07 Feb 2010 22:39:00 GMT

Good Super Sunday Evening everyone. If you are a fan of winter weather... the week ahead is sure to be super in a lot of ways as we have snow and cold that will be the main players.

Parts of the state are now under a Winter Storm Watch for Monday night into Tuesday. This is for parts of northern Kentucky and southwest along to Ohio River toward Paducah. Here is a look...

The models today continue to come in with a colder setup for Monday night and Tuesday for most areas. They are still trying to bring in some slightly warmer surface temps to parts of the state... even with the colder setup aloft. The latest NAM matches up withe the European model with the colder solution aloft...

Tuesday Morning

Tuesday Afternoon

That certainly suggests good period of snow and ice later Monday night into the first part of Tuesday for many areas. You can see the European Model for Tuesday Morning looked very similar with the 0c 850 line being south into Tennessee...

We will fine tune that Monday night and Tuesday forecast with the overnight update. You will notice by Wednesday morning that wind and widespread snows should engulf the area. That setup is enough to produce some decent snows around here into Wednesday night. You can see this a little better on the GFS Ensembles...

There is a STOUT upper level system swinging through here during this time as you can see with the thermal min passing through on those charts.

A few of the models are TRYING to bring something across the south late week into early in the weekend that would be trying to hook up with a system diving in from the northwest. Here is the Canadian Model...

I will have a full update later tonight. Time to watch the Super Bowl.

Take care.

Active Winter Continues

Chris Bailey — Sun, 07 Feb 2010 05:24:00 GMT

Good Sunday everyone and thanks for blogging. Let me start out by saying that I have a backlog of emails to answer and I am hoping to put a dent in that this weekend. If you emailed me at any point over the past few months and didn't hear back... hang tough as I am getting there. Several hundred emails await.

In terms of the weather... our very active winter pattern continues across much of the country and the upcoming week looks pretty darn wintry around here. That won't be the case today so much as some sunshine returns. Temps this morning will crash into the teens with a shot at some single digits for areas in the north and northeast that have snow on the ground. You can see the low temps for the day here...

Highs today will top out in the upper 20s to low 30s.

Clouds will be on the increase Monday afternoon ahead of our next winter weather maker. I am watching this setup closely for a possible Threat upgrade across parts of the state for late Monday night into Tuesday. The setup is for a VIGOROUS upper level system to dive into the plains states later Monday and Tuesday. This will spawn a weak low pressure across the eastern Ohio Valley with another low moving up the east coast. The big difference between this and the setup we are just coming out of is that temps will be much colder to start and a major blast of cold air scoots in. You can see how this all works out on the GFS Ensembles...

The GFS snowfall is not as tightly wound or as wet as the Ensembles. Here is the latest snowfall map from Tuesday through Wednesday...

The situation for Monday night and Tuesday certainly needs to be watched closely for a period of snow and ice to move in Monday night into Tuesday morning. This could cause a mess for the early Tuesday commute in all areas. Temps will try to go above freezing across the south and southeast for a few hours Tuesday afternoon... but this may happen as a lot of the leading precip shield has already done the damage with snow and ice. That above freezing surge will be VERY short lived as our arctic front slams in by late afternoon and early Evening.

The upper level low will cruse through here through Wednesday with widespread snows that will try to hang on into Thursday morning. Winds will be very gusty and snow ratios should be rather high with the cold temps.This would lead to the potential for some decent snows for the entire region. We are going to make a lot of school kids happy in the week ahead!

By the way. We have all seen the video and pics from the mid atlantic states historic blizzard that just wrapped up. Guess what? Another snowstorm or blizzard will be possible from DC to Boston by the middle of the week! This situation for some areas may get totally out of control with the amount of snow on the ground. This has truly been an historic winter for much of the country and we still have A LOT more winter to go through. The pattern over for the rest of the month looks VERY cold with many more chances for snow.

I will have an update on the early week winter woes with an update later today so be sure to check back. Until then... take care.

No Time To Rest

Chris Bailey — Sat, 06 Feb 2010 20:03:00 GMT

Good Saturday afternoon everyone. I wanted to drop by really quickly for an update before I watch the Cats and crash after a long past couple of days. The time to rest will be short as our next winter weather maker will be moving our way by Monday night to set us up for a very wintry period for the middle and end of next week.

I thought I would tease some of you who missed out on this round of snows. Take a look at a couple shots I grabbed on my iphone this morning from my part of the world...

Here is a cool video of the road conditions from nearby Huntington ,WV that was sent to me by one of my co workers...

As you can see... I didn't blow the forecast for everyone!

We now turn our attention to the next round of wintry weather moving in from Monday night through Friday of next week. The lead system may be enough to qualify as a "storm" around here with snow and a mix for Monday night and Tuesday with snows taking over after that as arctic air takes hold of the pattern. This will be one heck of an arctic front that will slam the region on Tuesday with gusty winds and falling temps. You can see this setup nicely on the GFS Ensembles...

Wicked is a term that comes to mind for the weather around here for the middle and end of next week. Whether or not we get a big snow out of the Tuesday storm... the daily threat of snows will be with us into the end of next week to go along with very cold temps. The pattern shows no signs of breaking down over the next 2 or three weeks at least.

I will have a full update later tonight so check back. Take care.

Winter Storm Saturday Update

Chris Bailey — Sat, 06 Feb 2010 12:30:00 GMT

Good Saturday morning everyone. It was a short night for your friendly weatherdude since I worked the did the late shows Friday night and was back in a few hours later this morning on special assignment working the early Saturday morning update. Sleep is so overrated!

The stubborn warm layer of air really cut into the snow totals for a lot of areas. The northern and northeastern parts of the state were the areas where we focused on for the heaviest snows and that is working out pretty good with a good 2"-4" of snow already having fallen since last night. An additional 1"-3" will be possible this morning before the snow tapers off. This is such a wet snow that it is compacting so quickly that you may never have more than 3 or 4 inches on the ground at any one time.

South of the interstate... my forecast has not been very good as the rains held on MUCH longer than I thought. You will switch over to snow this morning... but I simply cannot see more than an inch or two at the MOST! Of course... we didn't forecast much at all in this area... but you get the idea.

The eastern half of the state will see moderate bands of snow moving through here this morning as our upper level low pinwheels through the area. You can track the snows here...

I have some weather cams for you guys to check out. You can see there are plenty of places that DID get in on some good snows...

Kentucky Horse Park Lexington

Ashland

Harrodsburg

I-75 Northern Kentucky

Help us out by posting the weather where you live. Take care everyone.

Snow Increasing Tonight

Chris Bailey — Sat, 06 Feb 2010 03:37:00 GMT

Good late Friday evening gang. Things appear to remain on track as we roll into tonight and through the day Saturday. We have our upper level low that will be rolling through during this time and will enhance the snowfall across the entire region with the heaviest falling in the north and northeast.

You can see this potent system showing up in the spin on radar...

I have to admit that the rains held on a tad longer than I thought but that happens sometimes in these setups as timing that junk is impossible. Still... I am not too concerned about the forecast we have out it should verify pretty easily in most areas as the upper low passes through here. It sill snow heavily in a lot of areas late tonight into early Saturday and it will be a wet snow meaning there will be a lot of slush! This is the type of snow that will compact VERY quickly as it accumulates because it is so wet. It is also good for making snowmen.

The NAM continues to show decent snows overnight into Saturday...

That looks a lot like the snowfall map we put out earlier so I am liking what it shows!

Help us out by posting the weather conditions from where you live. It is much appreciated. After this storm... we focus our attention on the next storm that moves our way by Tuesday. This will usher in a snowy and cold period for the middle and end of next week.

Thanks for all you guys do and take care.

Winter Storm Update

Chris Bailey — Fri, 05 Feb 2010 22:28:00 GMT

Good Friday evening gang. My time is VERY brief right now but I wanted to give you a quick update on where things stand. The new warning Map looks about what we have talked about...

As of this writing the snow line is rapidly collapsing into northern Kentucky and will continue southward with most areas going to snow this evening. The latest run of the NAM model continues to pump up the snow totals tonight and Saturday...

Areas that get 6 or more inches of snow stand the risk of seeing power outages since this will be a very heavy, wet snow. Track the transition here...

On another note... the heavy rains over the next few hours can lead to some local flash flooding so please keep that in mind if you are in a flood prone area.

Please keep posting the weather where you live as we track the transition. I will update things as I can later this evening so check back. Take care.

Snow To Take Over This Evening

Chris Bailey — Fri, 05 Feb 2010 17:56:00 GMT

Good afternoon everyone. Our winter storm is playing out about as expected as much of the area went from a mix to all rain today and that rain will continue this afternoon before snow takes over from north to south. The quicker the transition... the more snow that will fall and timing all this will be the main issue later today.

Winter Storm Warnings have been extended farther south into north central Kentucky while Winter Weather Advisories have been issued for a lot of other counties for tonight and Saturday. Here is your map...

It would appear the folks at the NWS in Jackson are busy celebrating National Weatherperson's Day as they are the only surrounding office with nothing showing up. Will their northern counties go from having nothing straight to a Winter Storm Warning? That is certainly possible.

Track the change to snow on our regional radar...

You can also follow the temp drop later this afternoon and evening...

As far as what the models are forecasting... the NAM continues to come in with a major snow event across northern and northeastern Kentucky where it is forecasting a foot of snow for some (including my house )...

The GFS is not as aggressive with the quicker change to snow and shows lower totals...

Given the split in the models... my snowfall map will remain unchanged from earlier today. But I will admit the consistency of the NAM has me concerned that I am too low in the north and northeast...

I will have more updates later in the day so check back. Until then... keep doing what you are doing and posting the weather where you live. Have a great afternoon and take care.

Winter Storm Rolls In

Chris Bailey — Fri, 05 Feb 2010 06:10:00 GMT

Good Friday everyone. Yet another winter storm is impacting the region today with the full effects to kick in tonight and Saturday as colder air moves in. This is going to be pretty wild storm to watch today because we will have so many variables coming into play that will lead to a wide variety of weather over such a small area.

We continue to be in Winter Storm Alert mode for northern and northeastern Kentucky. Everyone will get in on snowfall with this storm... but the areas I have outlined could be in line for several inches of heavy, wet snow.

The action is already underway as rain moved in over night. This will likely mixing with sleet and snow this morning and may change to a period of snow... especially in the north. Some slick travel will be possible this morning as temps hover near the freezing mark in some locations. You can track the mess here....

The temps will obviously play a HUGE roll in who is getting what kind of precip today. The good folks at Kentucky Mesonet have you covered with their near real time temp tracker map...

Here is how I see this thing playing out...

- Precip will be snow and a mix of rain and snow/sleet for much of the area early this morning. This will go over to all rain for a time for many areas and should be mainly rain during the late morning and afternoon hours for a lot of the area. Heavy rains will be likely across the south and southeast.

- The best shot at staying mainly snow or a mix today will be in the far north.

- The snow line will collapse quickly south to around Interstate 64 by early evening. North of this... snows can become heavy at times as temps fall to freezing.

- A period of moderate to heavy snow is likely later tonight into Saturday morning for areas along and north of I 64. Lighter snows will be likely to the south.

- Snows will taper off from west to east Saturday with a few snow showers lingering into Saturday night in the east.

- The prime accumulating snow times will be tonight and early Saturday. Anyone expecting a lot of snow on the ground today or for it to NOT rain has not been paying attention to what we have been saying.

The latest computer model runs have come around to showing what we have been talking about and that is a good snow event from Interstate 64 and points north. The potential is there to go from a "good" snow event to a "big" snow event is certainly there the farther north you go. Check out the snow totals from the models...

NAM Snowfall

GFS Snowfall

Both models have slowly but surely been trending just a bit colder for later this evening across the northern half of the state. The earlier the better for heavier snow totals and that change is something we will be watching very closely later today.

My updated snow map has not changed very much from earlier. I did drag the lines a shade farther to the south and I bring the heaviest snows of 6"-12" all the way down to the Ohio River...

I will put out a final call for snowfall map later this morning or early afternoon so be looking for it. Until then... help the blog out by posting the weather conditions from where you live. As always... I appreciate all you do for me and one another.

Take care.

Winter Storm Alert

Chris Bailey — Fri, 05 Feb 2010 00:29:00 GMT

Good Thursday evening everyone. Winter Storm Alert mode is well underway for northern and northeastern Kentucky and we are watching to see just how far south and west that Alert will encompass. The newest runs of the GFS and NAM both rolled in with colder solution as they are both now sensing they were overdeveloping the lead low into the Tennessee Valley. The weaker that low... the less warm air advection into the area.

Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories are out for parts of the region. I must admit that these are WOEFULLY underdone. Here is a map of the counties included...

How the heck does one go from a Winter Storm Warning to having nothing in the next county over? I have no idea. Just blanket the entire area with a Winter Weather Advisory through Saturday and extend the Warning a few counties south to I-64 in northeastern Kentucky and you will have a map I can live with!

The lack of advisories is very surprising given the fact that the local NWS offices love to follow the lead of the HPC. The folks there are saying there is a chance for 4"+ snows in much of the region for the next few time periods they are forecasting for...

I don't know that I have ever seen the HPC snow maps that bullish for snow with such little interest from our local NWS folks. This is not a slam... but I am just scratching my head on this one.

Perhaps the new 18z runs of the NAM and GFS will have an influence on some forecasts out there. Both models went straight toward the first call map I put our early today. Take a look...

NAM

GFS

Those maps are from everything that falls through Saturday.

The precipitation is breaking out quickly from south to north across the area this evening and will really settle in overnight. It should start as rain then switch to snow and a mix for most areas by morning. This can lay down a slushy accumulation... especially the farther north you live. The mix will change to heavy rains across the south and southeast by later Friday morning with a mix continuing across the I-64 region with mostly snow across the extreme north.

Bye early evening... the snow line will crash rapidly south across the area with snow taking over. The heaviest snows will take place later Friday night into Saturday morning... especially across the north and northeast.

We will continue to watch the overall trend with the new model runs that will be out over the next few hours. Will they continue to come in a little colder? If so... we may have to make an adjustment with the Alert area.

I will have more updates as needed so check back. Take care.

First Call For Snowfall

Chris Bailey — Thu, 04 Feb 2010 18:08:00 GMT

Good afternoon gang and thanks for dropping by. I don't have a lot of time, but I wanted to make sure we got a first call map out to you can get an idea of what I am thinking in terms of snow.

Here ya go...

The heaviest band of snow will be setting up across northern and northeastern Kentucky with lighter amounts the farther southwest you go across the state. A Winter Storm Watch is out for northern Kentucky and I suspect that will be upgraded to a warning with a few more counties in northeastern Kentucky added to the list. Winter Weather Advisories will likely go up for the rest of the state.

I will have a more in depth discussion coming later today as my time is short right now. Until then... have fun tracking the storm moving our way...

Take care.

Breaking Down The Winter Storm Threat

Chris Bailey — Thu, 04 Feb 2010 06:18:00 GMT

Good Thursday everyone. We continue with our Winter Storm Threat for northern and northeastern Kentucky for Friday into Saturday as yet another storm rolls our way. As we have been talking about... this one is very complicated because of the old fence setting up across the region. This is really the first time this winter we have had to worry about the whole rain verses snow thing and we will try to break it down in greater detail.

The latest NAM came up with a fairly wild solution as it brought a heavy snow band along and east of the strong upper level low scooting across the area Friday night and Saturday. Is that band real? Probably not... But with such a strong system... I can't completely rule something like that out. Here is what the NAM is showing...

Again... try not to get too excited unless we see it showing up on other runs today. For now... discard it.

The GFS also looks to be a little suspect with it's lighter totals across the south and west because it is too weak with the upper level low moving through...

Regardless of their problems.. bot say the same thing... northern and northeastern Kentucky have a good shot at 4 or more inches of snow.

The storm will push precipitation into the are later tonight and it will be in the form of a little bit of everything. How it plays out from that point is still up in the air... but I have prepared some forecast maps for you guys to help break it down...

How much snow will fall and where? Well... I am not ready to put out a first call map just yet. That should be coming later today so check back for it.

Before I leave... how good do the GFS Ensembles look for the possible storm early next week?

That would be some crazy cold coming in behind that storm for the middle and end of next week. I see NO signs of this pattern letting up anytime soon.

I will have more updates later today so make sure you check back. Have a great Thursday and take care.

Winter Storm Threat North

Chris Bailey — Wed, 03 Feb 2010 20:18:00 GMT

Good afternoon everyone. My apologies for the late post as I was dealing with internet issues at home so I had to get to work to get this post on. I am upgrading the northern areas to a Winter Storm Threat for Friday into Saturday as a major winter storm takes aim at the region.

Here is a look at the threat area...

The threat is for the are I believe has the best chance at seeing 4" or more of snow out of this storm. The trend for the models is for less of a low into the Tennessee Valley on Friday and more of a focus on the Main low across the Carolinas. This would mean we do not get as much of a "warm" surge of air into the state Friday.

The NAM is coming around to that idea and shows a pretty big snowfall hit for some of the areas we have outlined...

Here is what I am thinking...

- Precip moves in quickly later Thursday night into Friday morning from south to north. This is likely to be a mixed bag of rain, sleet and snow. It could easily be all snow for a few hours.

- There is likely to be a transition to rain across the southern sections during the day Friday. I just don't know how far north that rain line will get. If it stays farther south... the snow totals north of it will be much higher.

- Colder air crashes in here Friday evening with rain to snow in all areas by the wee hours of Saturday morning.

- It is likely to be snowing hard in most areas late Friday night into Saturday morning.

- Whoever gets mainly snow is going to get a pretty good pounding out of this as it will be a heavy, wet snow that can bring power outages with it. Again... odds favor the north and northeast as having the best shot at something like this.

This is a very complicated storm as you can see so the forecast can easily change over the next few days. The blog will stay on top of it and have updates as needed.

By the way... the period from Monday night through Wednesday of next week looks nothing short of wicked right now.

Take care.

Lots Of Questions Remain

Chris Bailey — Wed, 03 Feb 2010 07:48:00 GMT

Good Wednesday everyone and thanks for stopping by the blog. What are we to do about the weekend storm system that will be rolling our way? That is the million dollar question right now and it is one that I do not quite have the answer to just yet as we find the computer models now evenly split into two distinct camps for Friday and Saturday.

The first camp of models basically now consists of the NAM and GFS as they both have the dual structured storm look. The first low makes it all the way into Kentucky before weakening out and giving way to the main low across the Carolinas. You can see how this looks on the GFS for Friday Evening...

That would bring a sure of slightly warmer air into the region for much of the daylight hours Friday meaning a cold rain for many with a mix in the north being likely. Everything would then change to snow from north to south Friday night with snows carrying into early Saturday on the GFS.

Now take a look at the European Model for the EXACT same time...

You notice it does not have the bluegrass state low and instead puts all the emphasis on the low in the Carolinas. That setup would imply less warm air advection into the region and a better chance for more wintry weather Friday with a faster transition to snow Friday evening.

The Canadian Model is also in the camp of the European right now. Which camp is right? Heck if I know as we are still a few days away and have plenty of time to figure it all out. If you held a gun to my head and made me tell you what I THINK is going to happen, you would get something like this...

- A cold rain and mix develops from south to north early Friday. Temps will be within a few degrees of freezing making for a tough call on precip type.

- Rain and mix will change to snow quickly Friday evening from north to south as temps drop below freezing.

- Saturday would likely feature snow and it could be heavy at times with the POTENTIAL for several inches.

- The best bet for a significant snowfall would be across the northern areas that didn't get as much out of this past storm.

- Since you have a gun to my head... please don't shoot!

Given that the NAM and GFS are the warmest and strongest with the 2nd low... they are still spitting out a snowfall...

GFS

NAM (Only through Friday Night)

Again... those are the two models that bring the other low the farthest north so they are going to show less snowfall. Don't worry.. those maps will change a lot with the next few runs.

The NAM run does suggest some good snows would fall regardless during the day Saturday...

Saturday Morning

That actually doesn't look too bad.

As you can see... this storm is a headache to forecast and is really the first system we have had this entire winter that we have really had to worry about "the fence" between rain and snow! It should be fun to track the next few days... well... maybe not fun for me.

By the way... watch out early next week as yet another storm is likely to make a run at us ahead of a major arctic outbreak...
Tuesday Morning

Is this an exciting winter pattern or what? I will have updates later today so make sure you check back. Have a great Wednesday and take care.

Groundhog Day Update

Chris Bailey — Tue, 02 Feb 2010 18:31:00 GMT

Good afternoon and Happy Groundhog day. You will be happy to know that good old Bluegrass Bubba made is way out this morning and quickly jumped back into this hole meaning 6 more weeks of winter. He actually told me (yes I speak Groundhog) that the next 6 weeks are likely to be the worst of the winter.

We do have a lot going on with the wonderful world of wintry weather. Our day got started off with an icy mix into parts of the region and the potential is there later tonight for a round of some freezing drizzle or a few snow showers that can cause a slick spot of two.

The big weather maker of the week comes our way Friday into Saturday as a major winter storm gathers in the Gulf and rolls up the east coast. The concern is whether or not we get a dual low structure or not and if so... how strong is the lead low? Some of the models bring one low into Tennessee with the main low taking over across the Carolinas while some of the other models put much more emphasis on the Carolina low. That later scenario would mean more snow around here and less mixing issues for the first part of the storm on Friday. The GFS and Canadian Models are leading the way with the dual low. Here is what the GFS spits out for snowfall...

The GFS Ensembles and European Models are not buying into such a strong low into Tennessee and have a weaker system giving way to the main low pretty quickly on Friday...

That would be a mix and rain to snow Friday into Friday night with a heck of a snow band setting up into Saturday. The model is also bringing a lot of moisture in here and whatever snow falls should be heavy and wet. The European Model looks a whole lot like the GFS Ensembles for Saturday morning...

This is going to be a tough forecast with a lot of options still on the table. I suspect an upgrade to THREAT status will be coming at some point tonight.

If that's not enough... there is another potential system for later Monday and Tuesday of next week that already has my attention.

I will update as needed so check back. Take care.

Wicked Winter Pattern Taking Shape

Chris Bailey — Tue, 02 Feb 2010 07:57:00 GMT

Good Tuesday everyone and thanks for dropping by the blog. If you have been a regular reader... you have known my thoughts for the end of January and February were for this to become a very wintry period. The last week of January certainly lived up to that and I have little doubt that February will do the same and can very well become memorable for much of the country.

The action gets started today into parts of the region as we get brushed by a storm passing us by to the southeast. This is throwing up enough moisture into southeastern Kentucky to provide some snow and a mix. This can cause travel problems in some areas and a Winter Weather Advisory is out for the Virginia border counties...

If this does turn out to be mainly snow in this region... a few inches will be very possible. The rest of the area will likely only see a stray shower of rain or snow and you can track all that here...

There will also be the chance for a few snow showers later tonight into very early Wednesday... especially in the east. This has a shot at laying down a coating in some areas.

Clouds will then decrease later in the day Wednesday with temps in the upper 30s and low 40s. Similar conditions will be noted for Thursday as we await our next storm rolling in for Friday into Saturday.

This is going to be a complex storm that may, for a time, have two centers. The first will try to ride northward into Tennessee early Friday before the main low takes over in the Carolinas later in the day. This setup usually brings the fence line right across our region meaning rain, snow and a mix of the two would be likely during the day Friday before a switch to snow later in the day that would carry us into Saturday. Where that line sets up early on and just how quickly the transition to snow is won't be known for a few more days. That is IF we see the dual structure storm system.

I like using the GFS Ensembles right now and you can see that fence initially setting up around here before quickly collapsing southward as the parent low cranks up...

That is a very juicy system that can bring a lot of whatever falls to the area. The actual operational GFS run liked the dual low structure a little more than it's Ensembles did and was thus a bit farther north with the heaviest snow band. This will waffle north and south, east and west with each run so we can't take any particular solution to heart. Here is the latest snowfall map from the GFS...

Unlike the last storm... whatever snow falls around here should be very wet meaning if we get too much of it... you can go in the dark pretty quickly. Again... all options are still on the table with this Friday into Saturday storm so be sure to check back for updates as this will be a huge storm.

The hits keep on coming after this storm as next week will likely feature another storm trying to form later Monday into Tuesday to our southwest and riding east or northeast ahead of a major arctic outbreak for much of the country.

The worst of winter may very well still be ahead of us.

I will have more updates later today so check back with us. Take care.

Weekend Eye Candy

Chris Bailey — Tue, 02 Feb 2010 01:48:00 GMT

Good evening gang. Old Man Winter is giving us plenty to talk about as we have a sneaky little system across the southeast Tonight and the increasing potential for a winter storm for the weekend. The models continue to point in the general direction of huge storm cranking up from the Gulf states to the Mid Atlantic states late week into the weekend.

The GFS has been trending better and better with this storm and the last run put down one heck of a snowstorm around here. This is what the model shows for snowfall through early Saturday afternoon...

Keep in mind it is forecasting more snow to fall outside of that range. The GFS Ensembles are even wetter with this storm with much of the region picking up an inch or more of liquid QPF.

I will be watching the models tonight and the blog may shift into Threat mode at some point soon if the trend continues.

I have been talking about the potential for a sneaky little snow or mix hitting parts of southeastern Kentucky tonight and early Tuesday and that appears to have been a good call. A period of snow, sleet and rain is likely in some areas and this may create some slick travel. A Winter Weather Advisory is now out for extreme southeastern Kentucky...

I will talk more about this and the late week storm with my full update later tonight. Take care.

Watching The End Of The Week

Chris Bailey — Mon, 01 Feb 2010 18:17:00 GMT

Good Monday afternoon everyone. I wanted to drop by for a quick update on how potential late week/early weekend winter storm. The odds continue to favor a major winter storm developing across the deep south and rolling up the east coast of the United states from late Thursday through Saturday. The exact impact this storm will have on Kentucky is a long way from being known. But... I am going more and more confident this could have a significant impact on us in terms of wintry weather and snow.

The latest computer models are rolling in and are all coming around to a stronger storm that tracks farther west up the coast. The GFS is still too far east and that is a known bias of the model. Even being too far east... it shows a thumper of a snowfall across the eastern half of the state. The GFS Ensembles are coming farther west and wetter...

That would be a smackdown for most of the region! The European Model, at first glance, appears to be similar to the above GFS Ensembles maps. It is not taking the low all the way up the coast, but is closer to doing that than it was before. The Canadian Model continues to show a monster storm hugging the coast all the way to New England.

Again... It is too early to say how much of an impact this storm will have on us. But... it is safe to say it could be a big one.

Take care.