Kentucky Weather Center

Wetter and Cooler Friday On Tap

Chris Bailey — Thu, 09 Sep 2010 17:19:00 GMT

Good Thursday afternoon gang. I wanted to drop by for a quick update on what is looking more and more like a soggy and cool Friday for much of the state. Moisture from what is left of Tropical Storm Hermine will work eastward across western Kentucky tonight and then impact much of the state Friday.

Here is a look at the rains moving in from the west...

The heaviest rains will fall across the west with lighter amounts the farther east you go in Kentucky. You can see what I am talking about here with the latest GFS run...

This system has been an overachiever in terms of rainfall to our west and can dump some locally heavy rains... especially west. Temps Friday will be chilly for much of central and western Kentucky as readings may not get out of the low and mid 60s. Here is a look at the GFS high temps for Friday...

That is pretty cool to see. Showers and thunderstorms would then continue into Saturday and Saturday night ahead of a cold front pushing in from the west. This is likely to impact tailgating and maybe even the Kentucky football game at Commonwealth Stadium Saturday evening.

I will have more updates as needed so check back. Take care.

Great September Weather

Chris Bailey — Thu, 09 Sep 2010 04:02:00 GMT

Good Thursday everyone. We are back into another stretch of awesome September weather across the state and this will likely carry many areas into the start of the weekend. For those playing along at home... are you noticing how much different the weather pattern has been over the past week? This is a sign of things to come.

Today is going to be nothing short of great as temps settle into the middle 70s for highs for a lot of folks. A nice breeze will accompany mostly sunny skies to help make this a day to get out and take full advantage of. There will be some high clouds that will wonder across our sky from time to time. Across the west... clouds will be a little thicker as some showers and isolated storms move in.

The full forecast looks like this...

Friday will be an interesting weather day across the state as a warm front works in from the southwest. This will combine with a disturbance and moisture from what is left of Tropical Storm Hermine to produce showers and storms across the west. This will roll eastward into central Kentucky during the day and will likely get eaten alive by the drier air in place. This is going to make for some wild temp swings. Follow me on this one... areas to the east will see partly sunny skies with temps well into the 70s for highs. A narrow ribbon of real estate somewhere across west central Kentucky will likely get in on some decent overcast and some diminishing showers leading to temps that may not get to 70. Farther west... temps will make a run toward 90 on the south side of the warm front. Confused yet? Don't worry... you're not alone.

That brings us to the weekend and a big increase in humidity levels ahead of a cold front approaching from the west on Saturday. This will mean showers and thunderstorms will develop from west to east through the day and some will bring locally heavy rains. This does not bode well for the Kentucky - Western Kentucky football game in Lexington Saturday evening. I am dusting off my poncho and the GFS says that is a wise idea...

Saturday Evening

The rains will move away early Sunday leaving us with a decent day with highs generally in the upper 70s to around 80 to round out the weekend.

The middle and end of next week is likely to feature a heck of a chilly shot of air taking up residence across much of the eastern half of the country and that includes where we live. This should easily be the coolest of the young season and has a shot to bring some lows near 40 with it and daytime highs in the 60s. Again... I say a shot because we are still several days away. I have been talking about this nice buildup of cold air in Canada for a few weeks now... and these fronts are tapping into that reservoir of chill as they dive southward into the states.

You can see that well here on the European Model for Wednesday morning...

The chilly air would then stay with us through the end of next week as we await what could be an even cooler shot of air coming in the following weekend into the first part of the week or the 20th. The fall thoughts the blog put out there back in early August are looking good right now as the threat for some very nice chilly shots is increased in the coming weeks.

Have a great Thursday and take care.

Pleasant Weather Returns

Chris Bailey — Wed, 08 Sep 2010 04:05:00 GMT

Good Wednesday everyone and thanks for dropping in on the blog. After another day in the 90s Tuesday... a much better brand of air is moving in for today and will stick around for the rest of the week. That is wonderful news for those of us who are fans of true September weather.

A cold front is sagging southward today across the Tennessee Valley. This front may still touch off a scattered shower early today across our southern counties. The rest of the state will see skies becoming partly to mostly sunny as northwesterly winds settle back in and these can be rather gusty at times. Highs today will range from the upper 70s to lower 80s.

The rest of the forecast looks like this...

The really nice weather will move in for Thursday and Friday as cooler air moves in. This will likely keep temps in the 70s for highs for much of the region both days. Here is how the NAM temp forecast looks like for these days...

You can see the big temp spread showing up across the region for Friday as a warm front swings northeastward through the Ohio Valley. Temps south of this boundary will head toward 90 degrees... to the north... highs will stay in the 70s. If we can get any band of clouds or showers along the warm front... temps will be even cooler over a localized area.

The warmer temps will move back in this weekend and will bring an increase in humidity levels and the threat for scattered showers and thunderstorms. This is likely to impact the UK-WKU football game in Lexington Saturday evening. The GFS shows a nice band of showers and storms rolling into town...

The rains will push east of the area into the day Sunday with highs over the weekend topping out in the lower and middle 80s. Looking farther down the road... Next week looks to start with temps in the 80s and end with a decent cooling trend.

Have a great Wednesday and take care.

Storms Rumbling Through

Chris Bailey — Tue, 07 Sep 2010 20:42:00 GMT

Good afternoon everyone. I wanted to drop in for a quick update on some storms making their way across the region and to put the radars on for you to track the boomers. These storms are blowing up ahead of a cold front and a few could be on the strong or severe side into the evening.

Here are the radars...

You will notice a healthy slug of rain pushing into western Kentucky as some tropical moisture is pulled northward into the front. That will only aid in the scattered storm development for the rest of us this evening and tonight.

Take care.

The Blog Goes Into Fall Mode

Chris Bailey — Tue, 07 Sep 2010 04:00:00 GMT

Good Tuesday everyone and welcome to the post summer version of the blog. We are now past Labor Day and that means two things... women can no longer wear white and the blog starts to become more active as talk of fall and winter begins to ramp up. While I can't comment much on the first... I can tell you we will definitely talk about fall and winter a lot more in the coming days and weeks.

We will start with the weather today and it will feel anything but fall like as temps make a run toward the lower 90s. This heat surge won't last long as it is ahead of a cold front that moves through here later tonight. We are likely to see a broken band of showers and thunderstorms moving in this evening into the overnight hours.

You will be able to track this line here...

There is even a small chance a few of these storms are on the strong or severe side this evening. Here is the latest from the Storm Prediction Center...

The rest of the forecast shakes out like this...

- The air coming in behind the front for Wednesday and Thursday will be much drier and much cooler. Readings will range from the mid and upper 70s for many in central and eastern Kentucky to the low 80s in the west.

- Nighttime lows by Thursday will likely dip back into the upper 40s in several areas.

- A warm front will attempt to swing northward through the region Friday into Saturday and this will likely touch off a few rounds of showers and thunderstorms. You can see the setup here...

A few things about this setup...

1. Moisture from what is left of Tropical Storm Hermine may try to get in the mix... especially Friday into Friday night. Hermine came ashore just south of Brownsvile, Texas Monday evening and will track northward into the plains states.

2. It is not going to rain the entire time Friday through Saturday... but when it does, some heavy rains will be possible.

3. Temps are going to be tough to pinpoint during this time. We should see a heck of a temp gradient setting up from southwest to northeast Friday as the warm/hot air tries to nudge in. Areas north or the warm front that see rain and storms Friday will have temps that struggle in the low and mid 70s. Again... figuring out exactly where this is will take a few more days.

4. The threat for showers and storms will carry us into the weekend meaning the Cats home opener Saturday may have some issues.

Looking down the road... the pattern continues to progress nicely toward fall as cold fronts look to continue making their way through the region. This will bring period rounds of rains and some shots of cool.

Have a great Tuesday and take care.

Happy Labor Day

Chris Bailey — Mon, 06 Sep 2010 04:15:00 GMT

Good Monday and Happy Labor Day to one and all. Today is the day many Americans mark the end of summer in their minds and get set for fall weather. Speaking of.... we sure had a taste of fall the past few days as this was one of the best weather weekends we have had in a LONG time. Now comes a dose of reality as we have another stretch of warm weather rolling into town.

Picnics and cookouts today will be met with warmer temps as everyone sees low to mid 80s under sunny skies. Still... it should be a pretty comfy day.

If you have missed hot weather... Tuesday is the day that looks to be the hottest of the week as readings surge into the mid and upper 80s with low 90s in the west. A cold front will approach from the northwest Tuesday evening and night and will bring a broken band of showers and storms with it. This front does not have a lot of moisture to work with... so rainfall should be spotty.

The front will knock the temps down and usher in a more comfy brand of air for Wednesday and Thursday. Highs will be in the upper 70s and lower 80s in the east and low to mid 80s west.

Warmer and more humid air will begin to fight back in later Friday into the coming weekend. This should fire up some scattered showers and thunderstorms from Friday night through Sunday. I would hate to have to break out the poncho for the first Kentucky Wildcats home game of the season out at Commonwealth Stadium. That is a possibility and the GFS shows the rain chances...

Saturday Evening

Saturday Night

Looking at the longer range pattern... a couple of things stand out to me. 1. Much better rain chances are lining up for the middle and end of the month. 2 There is a ton of cold air building up in Canada. What the latter of the two means is still to be seen... but it cant hurt the winter prospects to see that this time of year.

The tropics continue to crank up as we have a new depression down in the gulf that will likely become a storm. The good news is that it is a storm for Mexico to deal with and not the states. Here is how we look in the tropics...

Have a great and safe Labor Day and take care.

Awesome Holiday Weather Rolls On

Chris Bailey — Sun, 05 Sep 2010 04:37:00 GMT

Good Sunday everyone and thanks for dropping in on the blog. The weather out there on Saturday was nothing short of awesome and today shouldn't be much different as sunshine and temps back into the 70s give us another round of weather greatness.

The question of the day is... how cool with the morning lows be? Everyone should see the first 40s of the season and we will have to see how low the numbers can go. The good folks at Kentucky Mesonet have you covered in doing just that...

Some areas can approach record readings for this date... actually breaking them may be a different story.

Labor day will see temps returning to the 80s under mainly sunny skies. Overall... this should be another very pleasant feeling day for the cookouts and maybe a final dip in the pool.

The pattern for next week is a warm one and will see temps mainly in the 80s for highs. A weak front will approach from the northwest later Wednesday and will being a chance for some scattered showers or storms our way. Temps during this time should come down a few degrees.

Our next best chance for showers and thunderstorms looks to be for next weekend. You can see it here on the GFS...

Earl has gone on to hurricane heaven but the Atlantic is still full of wannabe storms and we should see a few more names over the next week. Here is what it looks like out there right now...

On a side note... I hope none of the Louisville fans took my post too seriously Yesterday... it was all in good fun. Smile... you will live longer because of it.

Have a great Sunday and take care.

A Wonderful Big Blue Weekend

Chris Bailey — Sat, 04 Sep 2010 03:44:00 GMT

Good Saturday everyone and welcome to your Labor Day Holiday Weekend. We have some amazing weather with us for the next few days and we may even flirt with a record low temp Sunday morning. We also have this little football game being played between my Kentucky Wildcats and the louisville cardinals.

As I have mentioned this week... I am trying to not show my big blue colors as much due to the big surge of blog visitors from the Louisville area. In years past... I have been a little harsh with our feathered ~~friends~~ wearing red and black. If this were a year ago... you might have seen me posting some things like this...





That would have been kind of mean of me to include such images in my blog. It sure is a good thing I have turned over a new leaf this year... even though my blood runs as blue as it can possibly be. I will be nice to our feathered ~~friends~~ and not feed into the inferiority complex that engulfs that program and their fan base.

How about the weather for the big game? We will see partly sunny skies with temps around 75 for kickoff and readings dropping to around 70 for the second half. Winds will be a bit gusty as well.

For the rest of the state... highs will range from the low 70s for central and eastern Kentucky to the middle 70s for the rest of the state. Winds will be gusty at times as we start out with mostly sunny skies before some clouds develop in the afternoon hours.

Current Temps

Very chilly air will be with us tonight as temps take a major tumble deep into the 40s. As a matter of fact... we have a shot at a record low or two before all is said and done. The raw numbers from the GFS actually take thermometers into the UPPER 30S Sunday morning across the east. While I don't think it will get THAT cold... some of the traditional cold spots can dip closer to 40. Brrrrr!

Sunday looks like another AWESOME weather day with temps back in the 70s for highs and sunshine. Labor Day will see temps return to the lower 80s for much of the region... with the western sections being a few degrees warmer.

Speaking of warmer air... it will be fighting in here again by Tuesday as temps spike well into the mid and upper 80s. The good news is that this does NOT look like a very hot pattern that gets out of control like we have seen in recent weeks. A weak front should approach the area from the northwest Wednesday into Thursday and bring a chance for showers and thunderstorms our way. This should knock temps back toward the lower and middle 80s.

I wanted to leave you with a gorgeous September weather video from a few years ago. It was a VERY nice weather night across Kentucky and had people dancing in the streets and anywhere else they could find...

That is all I have for you guys today... I hope our feathered ~~friends~~ have enjoyed the kinder, gentler version of your friendly weather dude. Believe it or not... I used to be so much worse!

Have a great Saturday and GO BIG BLUE!!! Take care.

The Change To Cool Is Here

Chris Bailey — Fri, 03 Sep 2010 03:49:00 GMT

Good Friday everyone and welcome to the start of the Labor Day Holiday Weekend. This is a big weekend for outdoor activities and it is shaping up to be nothing short of a winner in that department as a shot of cool/chilly air moves in. The timing on the shot of fall could not be better! We will take a look at that and have some tracking maps for Hurricane Earl.

A cold front will be cross the state from west to east today. This front does not have a ton of moisture to work with... but the pure dynamics of the front will touch off a line of showers and thunderstorms that rolls quickly eastward. This line should not put down a whole lot of rain... but we will take what we can get. The rains should be out of the area in time for kickoff of most high school football games this evening.

Track the action here...

This will be a fairly windy front as it blows through here. High temps today will range from the 70s for much of central and western parts of the state to low 80s across the east. Those low 80s will generally be in the late morning hours before the clouds and storms move through.

Temps this evening for High School Football will be great for the second Friday in a row. Readings will fall into the 60s for second half action.

The real deal cool/chilly air will move in for Saturday and Sunday. We will start out our weekend with readings near 50 Saturday morning. Saturday's highs are going to struggle to get much past 70 across the eastern half of the state... especially if we get some clouds to develop and that is a possibility. Winds will be rather gusty and this will add a slight chill to the air... especially if you are in a shaded area. The big Kentucky-louisville game out at the big slice will be played with temps in the 70-75 degree range. That will feel great considering how hot it can be this time of year... as we found out this week.

Sunday morning will start very chilly with readings down into the 40s for most areas. As a matter of fact... it is possible we approach record levels for some cities! Sunny skies will be with us once again during the day and that will boost temps into the low and mid 70s for highs for much of the area. That will be another WOW weather day.

Labor Day will see warmer temps fighting back in as readings head toward the lower 80s... but it still should be a comfy day overall with more sunshine.

Temps will head back into the mid and upper 80s for much of the middle and end of next week. It is by the end of the week when we should see our next threat for any rainfall.

Hurricane Earl continues to brush parts of the Mid Atlantic states as it rolls northward just off the east coast of the United Sates. Earl is likely to bring the wildest weather to parts of the New England coast tonight. It is very unlikely that it will make landfall along the east coast... but it will get close enough to cause some big problems.

Here are some tracking maps for Earl...

Have a great Friday and take care.

Hurricane Earl Tracker

Chris Bailey — Thu, 02 Sep 2010 17:17:00 GMT

Good evening everyone. As we await the arrival of some chilly air for the weekend that may threaten a record low or two Sunday morning... the main weather headliner is Hurrican Earl. I have put together some tracking maps and cams for you guys to check out. Here we go...

Have a great Evening and take care.

Chilly Weekend Ahead As Earl Smacks East Coast

Chris Bailey — Thu, 02 Sep 2010 04:05:00 GMT

Good Thursday to one and all and welcome to the last day of the latest heat wave. After another round of hot air... mother nature owes us one and if you are a fan of fall... I am introducing the word Chilly into the mix for the air this coming weekend. While that is the big news locally... the big news nationally is Hurricane Earl as it climbs northward along the east coast.

Let us hit the local angle first and foremost. This is KENTUCKY Weather Center, ya know?

Today is hot yet again and may end up being the hottest of the week. Highs in the middle 90s look to be a good possibility... especially across the central and eastern part of the state. The good news with this round of heat is it has been a dry one as humidity levels are not a factor at all.

A cold front approaches the area from the west later tonight into early Friday. This front will bring a fast moving line of showers and thunderstorms through here during this time. You can track this stuff in from the west on regional radar...

The MAJOR news on the weather front will be the CHILLY air moving in for the Labor Day Weekend. I use the word chilly because it is only the start of September and we are likely to see widespread 40s for lows Sunday. That will go along with a few days of low and mid 70s for highs. Add in a nice northerly breeze for Saturday and it will feel even cooler.

ALL models are agreeing with what we have been yapping about for a while now. Here is how the NAM sees things...

Most record lows for Sunday morning are down in the middle 40s... just in case you were wondering. In all honesty... Saturday and Sunday are going to be amazing weather days for fall lovers and will provide for an awesome first Saturday to the college football season.

Labor day itself will start chilly with upper 40s to low 50s and end a bit warmer with lower 80s. Sunny skies will continue to rule the weather world.

Look ahead to next week... temps are going to warm back into the middle and upper 80s.

Hurricane Earl is the star of the national weather stage as it rolls up the east coast through early Saturday. This storm is really cranking up and looking awesome as of this writing. Here is how it looks on camera...

Hurricane Warnings are up for the Carolina coast and will likely be extended farther up the coast into New England, where Watches were issued Wednesday afternoon. You can see the warnings here on the latest track map from the National Hurricane Center...

It should be noted that some models are on the western edge of the NHC track and bring Earl SUPER close to making landfall along the outer banks and again near the Cape Cod area of the northeast. The GFS is one of those models...

I will have a special blog coming later this afternoon and evening that will have all the tracking tools you need to follow Earl.

By the way... Earl is far from being the only storm out in the Atlantic...

Have a great Thursday and take care.

Record Hot Summer In The Books

Chris Bailey — Wed, 01 Sep 2010 04:03:00 GMT

Good Wednesday everyone and welcome to the month of September! Today marks the first day of meteorological fall meaning summer to us weather folks is now in the books. It was a record setting hot summer across the region and some of the numbers will astound you. We will take a look at that... talk about a VERY cool holiday weekend that is just ahead and take a look at Hurricane Earl.

Before we look ahead... let's take a look back on our record setting summer. Anyway you slice it... the numbers are staggering.

Louisville: Summer 2010 will go down as the HOTTEST summer on record! The average temp for Louisville was 82.3 degrees. This demolished the prior hottest summer average temp of 81.0 set back in the dust bowl era of 1936. That is an AMAZING stat!!!!

Lexington: Summer 2010 will go down as the 5th hottest summer on record. The average temp was 77.6 degrees. The only summers ranking above this one are: 1. 1936 2. 1952 3. 1943 4. 1983

Some other noteworthy records...

Frankfort: 5th hottest Summer on record.

Bowling Green: 3rd hottest Summer on record.

Paducah: 2nd hottest Summer on record.

I had forecast this to be a hotter than normal Summer... but I can admit this blew away that outlook I put out back in May. Now the job is to see what we can learn from it and see if it is telling us anything about the fall and winter ahead.

The current weather features more of the same to kick off the month of September as the heat holds for a few more days. Highs today and Thursday will likely range from the low and mid 90s across much of the area. An increase in humidity and an approaching cold front may be enough to touch off a scattered thunderstorms later in the day Thursday. The main action will be along our front which will sweep eastward across the area Friday. This should provide us with a pretty good shot at some much needed rainfall. The quick movement of the front suggests totals should not be that high.

The BIG news is the amount of cool air moving in behind the front for the weekend. Temps will really take a tumble for Saturday and Sunday as daytime highs likely stay in the 70s. As a matter of fact... Saturday can easily see only low and mid 70s for high temps. This is one impressive trough digging in from Canada and the European Model shows this well...

In all honesty... that is a heck of a cool air shot into much of the eastern part of the country for this time of year. Both the GFS and European models are showing much of the area dipping into the 40s Sunday morning. The nice weather will stick around into Labor Day itself with sunny skies and temps warming toward the low 80s. It doesn't get much better than this for a holiday weekend!

Hurricane Earl continues to churn toward the mid atlantic coastline as it will likely be a VERY close call in terms of an actual landfall from North Carolina to Maine. Here is the latest on the storm...

3 DAY TRACK

5 DAY TRACK

Once again... I can find no reason to argue with the track from the NHC. I will say this... the European model did show this storm farther west that the NHC track. Either way... folks along the east coast should be nervous right now as the storm track forecast won't have to change very much at all for some ares to get a direct hit.

Have a great Wednesday and take care.

The Heat Come Before A Temp Treat

Chris Bailey — Tue, 31 Aug 2010 07:26:00 GMT

Good Tuesday everyone and thanks for checking out the blog. We have a few more days of some big time heat around here before some big temp changes move in just in time for the upcoming Labor Day Weekend. If you are a fan of fall... you are going to love the forecast for the weekend. That is the highlight of the local weather as all eyes on the national level turn toward the east coast and the threat from Hurricane Earl later this week. Oh yeah... I have a winter nugget at the end of the blog.

Let's begin with where the weather is now and that is HOT. High temps today through Thursday will run in the low to mid 90s under a partly sunny sky. Today is a fitting day for the scorching hot month of August to come to and end on. The first few days of September won't bring anything different... but that will change in a hurry to start the weekend.

A strong cold front will blow through here Friday with a band of showers and thunderstorms. Highs Friday will come way down in the low and mid 80s early in the day before dropping big time by evening from west to east. Once into Saturday... the cool air will REALLY settle in across much of the midwest and eastern part of the country. Take a look at the nice shot of Autumn showing up on the European Model...

All of the models are in strong agreement on this shot of cool air. Here is what the GFS shows for highs Saturday...

That looks GREAT for the first Saturday of college football across the region. Highs in the upper 70s look good in Louisville for the Kentucky Wildcats ~~annual beatdown~~... wait... I promised to be a little better with that.... for the Kentucky Wildcats game with the Louisville Cardinals.

The rest of the holiday weekend will feature a very chilly start to the day Sunday as lows dip way down there... the rest of Sunday looks sunny with temps in the high 70s to near 80. Labor Day itself looks good with lower 80s. Temps will heat back up next week.. but we will worry about that later.

Hurricane Earl continues to churn toward the mid atlantic coastline and is a very powerful storm. Here is what it looks like on camera...

The storm will approach the outer banks of North Carolina later Thursday into Thursday night before working northeastward along and likely just offshore of the east coast all the way to Maine. Here is the latest track and information from the National Hurricane Center...

Again... a VERY small westward correction to the track would bring a devastating hurricane ashore somewhere along the east coast...more than likely in New England. Either way.. the coast from North Carolina to Maine will take a lashing from Earl.

I will have more tracking info in the days to come.

Winter fans... the Farmers Almanac is out with their winter forecast and gives you some hope for a third straight snowy and cold winter...

If you want to know exactly what they are forecasting for this area... you will have to buy a copy.

Have a great Tuesday and take care.

Busy Pattern To Bring Big Changes

Chris Bailey — Mon, 30 Aug 2010 06:44:00 GMT

Good Monday everyone... here is hoping you are coming off of a wonderful weekend. We have a lot of things to cover with this update... the heat is on right now in a big way... a significant cool shot is on the way for the holiday weekend... and the east coast may be preparing for a major hurricane to run up the coast.

Let us start with the weather locally then branch out into the tropics. Hot is the weather word of the week as temps in the low and middle 90s will be common through Thursday. Outside of a popcorn shower or thunderstorm... most areas will remain dry. The best chance for some rains will be across western Kentucky into early Tuesday.

A strong cold front will approach the region Thursday night into early Friday and will likely bring a round of showers and thunderstorms with it. We are getting dry... especially the farther west you live... so we could use some rains. The front will also have quite a push of cooler air behind it and this will move in here just in time for the Labor Day Weekend. Right now... this weekend looks AMAZING in terms of the weather. Mainly sunny skies with mild temps and low humidity levels should make for one heck of a holiday. Many of the models suggest some 70s for highs again for Saturday and maybe Sunday. Here is the GFS high temps for Saturday...

How great does that map look for the Kickoff of College Football?! The big pizza dish in Louisville does not look to be cooking this go around as My Cats take on the Cards in the middle of the afternoon. Saturday. Too early for a Go Big Blue? I have to be more careful this go around as we have picked up a ton of new bloggers from the Louisville area... it's all in good fun my feathered friends.

The nice weather looks to stick around into Labor Day itself before temps start to heat back up next week.

Let us get to the tropics and what is likely to become a major national story this week... Hurricane Earl possibly riding up the east coast of the United States. I am not just talking about the normal tropical trouble spots of the southeast... but all the way into the New England States.

Let us get you oriented with all the tropical action in the Atlantic as we have Danielle, Earl and the future Fiona...

Danielle is a fish storm and should stay that way. Let us concentrate the other two... especially Earl. Here is what the current Satellite looks like...

The latest forecast track from the National Hurricane Center...

Most of the models I look at took a little jog westward with the track of Earl along the east coast later this week. While they never really bring the eye of the storm directly over land (and that is still a possibility)... it gets WAY too close for comfort and could bring tropical storm or hurricane force winds to millions of people.

Take a look at the GFS and Canadian Models...

Wow! Notice how fast that storm moves northward once it gets past the outer banks of North Carolina. A correction west by just a few miles would be catastrophic for areas of the northeast. This is going to be a major news maker this week... regardless of what it does to our coastline. The blog will have a TON of tracking tools for you as this storm comes calling.

We haven't talked about Fiona much, but that storm is still on the European Model's radar as it brings it toward the southeast coast a few days after Earl.

Have a great Monday and take care.

The 90s Are Back

Chris Bailey — Sun, 29 Aug 2010 03:43:00 GMT

Good Sunday to one and all and thanks for dropping in on the blog. The big weather news around here is the return of the 90 degree temps that should be common for the next several days. On a bigger scale of weather stories... the hurricanes in the Atlantic will take center stage over the next week as we see an increased threat for, at least, one of these storms to come calling along the east coast.

Let us talk about the weather around here. It's hot! Ok.. that pretty much covers it. Highs today through Wednesday and Thursday are likely to be in the lower 90s. Humidity levels will slowly be on the increase and this may lead to an isolated shower or storm. The greatest concentration of showers and storms will be across the western part of the state as a plume of moisture works in from the Gulf of Mexico. This will especially be the case as we roll into Monday and Tuesday.

Looking down the road into the Labor Day Weekend... our weather picture will likely be influenced by what happens with the Hurricanes out in the Atlantic Ocean. The likely scenario is we get a front to move through here late Thursday into Friday with a chance for scattered showers and some more comfy air for the holiday weekend. I say likely because it all depends on Earl and the future Fiona. Hurricane Danielle is still out there but is no threat to the U.S. . Here is a look at our storms...

Earl is likely to grow into a Major Hurricane over the next few days as it heads toward the eastern Bahama Islands. Earl is getting a farther southward starting point as it gradually turns more northwest. This may bring it much closer to the east coast than what I was thinking over the past few days. The National Hurricane Center is showing the threat...

Several of the latest forecast models have been showing Earl to be much more of an east coast threat as well.

We haven't even talked about the future Fiona. A storm in which the European Model develops into a monster Hurricane that slams into the east coast after Earl gets out of the way. Given the complicated scenario of having three storms in the Atlantic... I wouldn't expect the models to handle the tracks and overall pattern very well. This will make for some wild tracking times in the days to come and the blog will ramp up coverage in the coming days.

Have a great Sunday and take care.

The Heat Returns... Will It Bring Some Storms?

Chris Bailey — Sat, 28 Aug 2010 04:49:00 GMT

Good Saturday everyone. The weather of late has been very nice and a far cry from how much of the month of August has been. Hot days and scattered storms were the norm for most of this month and it looks like August will be getting its groove back as we close out the month.

Hot and humid weather will be moving back in this weekend and will set up camp into much of next week. The threat for some scattered showers and thunderstorms may come calling as well. We have a small shot at seeing a popcorn shower or storm later today across the far southern counties. The bulk of the state will see partly sunny skies as temps soar back into the mid and upper 80s with low 90s in the west.

In recent days... I posted a couple of rainfall maps from the NAM and Canadian Models showing a nice influx of moisture into the western part of the region. That is looking more and more like it will become a reality from later Sunday into early next week. How far east that stuff can get is the big question... but I would think the threat for some showers and storms is certainly there for central and western Kentucky. East of that and we are likely talking isolated stuff at best.

The latest run of the NAM continues to show this juice...

Outside of any rains... highs into the middle of next week will likely be in the upper 80s to low 90s.

The tropics continue to be active with Danielle, Earl and the future Fiona...

Danielle is going to be wide right of the east coast... Earl should come closer to the coast than Danielle and will have some work to do before it can actually threaten the east coast. Fiona may be the one that actually causes the most concern along the east coast.

Here is what the European Model shows with Earl and Fiona next Friday morning...

It should be an interesting next few weeks for hurricane trackers as the Atlantic season is really off and running now.

Have a great weekend and take care.

The Hot Weather Is Lurking

Chris Bailey — Fri, 27 Aug 2010 06:34:00 GMT

Good Friday to one and all and welcome to the weekend. We have one more great today before we get in on an increase in heat and humidity this weekend that will carry us into much of next week. We will break all that down for you and take a look into the tropics as the action is really cranking up.

Let us start with the weather out there today as it should be another winner of a day. Temps in the 50s will be common this morning before we warm things back up to similar readings we had Thursday with upper 70s and low 80s. Sunny skies will prevail and humidity levels will be very low giving us a very comfy start to the weekend.

If you are interested in seeing where the temps ended up this morning across the state. Here is a morning low temp map from the Kentucky Mesonet...

The rest of the weekend will feature high pressure slipping off to our east. Temps will warm well into the 80s for Saturday and will likely hit the 90s out west. Everyone should be in the upper 80s to low 90s for Sunday into early next week for highs as August goes out with a hot bang.

There are some differences in the models for late weekend into the first half of the new week in terms of rain chances. The GFS is basically dry as a bone during this time... but the NAM and Canadian Models continue to show a nice Gulf of Mexico moisture plume aimed toward parts of the region. Take a look...

NAM

Canadian

Most of the showers and storms are pointed toward the western sections of the Ohio and Tennessee River Valleys... but the models do show some scattered stuff farther east. I guess we will see how it plays out... but some scattered shower and storm action certainly cannot be ruled out into early next week.

The heat will likely stick around into the middle of next week before a cold front swings through here by the end of the week with a better chance of rain. This should also really knock our temps down as we head into Labor Day Weekend.

A lot of what happens to the overall North American patter over the next few weeks will be driven by what goes on in the tropical Atlantic. We have two storms and that will likely become three at any moment. Hurricane Danielle will miss the east coast by a good margin. Soon to be Hurricane Earl is behind Danielle and Fiona is just beyond those two. What will happen with Earl and Fiona down the road? It is too soon to tell... but I would think each will have a higher chance of hitting the east coast of the US than the one before it does. In a nutshell... I believe it will be Fiona that has the best chance of threatening the United States. That doesn't mean Earl can't... just that I think the last of the three has the highest odds as of right now. Here is a look at the storms...

I will have updates over the weekend so check back. Have a great Friday and take care.

A Taste Of Early Fall

Chris Bailey — Thu, 26 Aug 2010 03:56:00 GMT

Good Thursday everyone and welcome to a taste of some AWESOME weather. A cold front pushed across the state last night with very little in the way of showers. That was expected as this looks like a true Fall front. The main news from all this is the very nice brand of air that has taken up residence here for a couple of days.

There isn't a whole lot that can be said about the weather into the start of the weekend. Sunny skies will be the rule for the next several days. Low humidity levels will give us a early fall feel out there through Friday. Highs today will range from the upper 70s north and east to the lower 80s across the west and southwest. The same can be said for Friday as the same air mass hangs in here. I simply cannot stress enough how comfy it is going to feel for this time of year over the next few days.

Friday morning lows will make for the coolest temps we have seen around here since the middle of May. Readings should be in the 50-55 degree range with some of the traditional cool spots having a shot at some upper 40s.

The cooler temps can't hang around forever... it is still August, ya know! Highs will head back into the middle 80s and higher for Saturday and Sunday as the sunshine remains. Early next week will see a ridge of high pressure setting up shop across the eastern half of the country. This means our temps will return toward something starting with a 9 and ending in a 0. Humidity levels will be on the increase as well and this COULD lead to a isolated storm.

A better chance for some showers and storms should be on the menu as we get closer to our Labor Day Holiday Weekend as another trough swings into the eastern part of the country. This should also try to knock our temps down some by that time. No matter how you slice it... next week is going to be a toasty one.

In the Tropics... the Hurricane Wave Train appears to have left the station and may be taking on more passengers in the coming days. Hurricane Danielle is heading toward becoming a Major storm and we have Earl likely to try to pull the same thing in the a few days. A tropical wave coming off Africa may also develop very soon and may become Fiona. Here is a look at the "train"...

Danielle will likely remain well to the east of the east coast of the U.S. . While that is the LIKELY scenario... a few runs of the various Ensemble models have tried to threaten parts of New England. Here is the latest track from the National Hurricane Center...

While we keep an eye on the tropics... you get out and enjoy the awesome weather of the next few days. Have a great Thursday and take care.

Coolest Temps Since May On The Way

Chris Bailey — Wed, 25 Aug 2010 06:50:00 GMT

Good Wednesday everyone. The September weather we have been yapping about for a while was certainly with us Tuesday as a lot of areas stayed in the 70s for highs. If you are a fan of the pleasant temps... we have more coming your way later in the week as the coolest temps since May are likely across the region. If you like the hot temps instead... hang tight as we will throw some more of the hot stuff your way next week.

Today will find temps warming into the low to mid 80s for much of the area ahead of a cold front moving in from the west. This front really looks like a true autumn front that one would see in late September instead of the middle of August. It will be fairly moisture starved meaning we will only run the risk of an isolated shower or storm later today into the evening hours.

The temps behind the front will be the main story as readings in the upper 70s will be common for much of the area Thursday and Friday with partly sunny skies. Clear skies and low dewpoints Thursday night will allow temps to drop off to readings we haven't seen since the middle of May. Low 50s will be common across most areas and we run the risk of seeing a high 40 in some of the cooler spots. Readings may approach record lows for Friday morning in a few spots.

Here is what the GFS shows for Friday morning...

Ahhhhhhhh... a little taste of fall to kick off the weekend!

Too bad the rest of the weekend won't be as much like fall. Temps will be returning to the 80s for most areas with more in the way of sunshine. Next week will bring hotter and more humid weather back into the picture. A heat ridge will be building just to our north and that is where the core of the heat will be. Still... we will get in on some toasty temps... but those will NOT approach the readings from a few weeks ago.

The one thing to watch for that can keep the temps down some will be an influx of moisture working in from the western Gulf of Mexico. This may bring enough juice in here for some scattered showers and storms for the first part of the week. The Canadian model shows this for later Monday...

The tropics are kicking it up right now as we have Hurricane Danielle and a couple of areas that may develop over the next few days...

Danielle still looks like a storm that will stay out in the Atlantic Ocean as it misses the east coast of the US. I will say that a few model runs Tuesday tried to bring New England into play... but those don't have a lot of support right now. Here is the latest track from the National Hurricane Center...

I know there is a ton of interest in my thoughts for the upcoming fall and winter... just ask my email inbox! I will be talking more and more about the months ahead as we roll into September.

Have a great Wednesday and take care.

Quick Hitting Tuesday Thoughts

Chris Bailey — Tue, 24 Aug 2010 07:46:00 GMT

Good Tuesday everyone and thanks for blogging. The weather is kind of boring right now so I am not going to bore you with a lot of talk about nothing. Oh wait... I make a living doing that. Our mid september weather pattern rolls on and is with us all week long.

Low pressure is cranking up across the mid atlantic states and will likely throw a few clouds back our way... especially across the east. A few very light showers will be possible across the extreme east and you can track those here...

Temps today should be very close to what we had across the area Monday with upper 70s to low 80s for a lot of people. Again... the sun verses clouds battle will have a lot to say about the exact temp in your backyard.

A cold front will swing in here later Wednesday bringing another shot of September air to end the week. Temps ahead of the front will warm into the 80-85 degree range for Wednesday. This should be a mostly dry frontal passage as it won't have a lot of moisture to work with. Still... I can't rule out a scattered shower or storm.

Temps behind the front will come back down for Thursday and Friday with highs upper 70s to low 80s for most areas. Lows by Friday morning will dip toward the low 50s for many. We have an outside shot at an upper 40 here or there.

Looking toward the weekend... temps will rebound pretty quickly as we soar back into the upper 80s to near 90. The core of the heat for next week should remain to our north... but it will get relatively hot and humid next week. The big question comes in terms of rainfall. There is likely to be something trying to develop in the tropics not to far from our own shores. A lot of next week will depend on if this happens. Either way... the tropical season is ramping up. We have Hurricane Danielle well out in the Atlantic and this should be of no concern to the U.S. . We also have the African wave train up and running with another storm likely to kick up behind Danielle.

Have a great Tuesday and take care.