Kentucky Weather Center

Severe Thunderstorm Watch

Chris Bailey — Fri, 12 Mar 2010 18:24:38 GMT

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for parts of the area until 7pm. Here is a look at the counties included...

The warnings map

Please post the weather conditions where you live and I will have updates later today. Take care.

Heavy Rain Threat

Chris Bailey — Fri, 12 Mar 2010 04:58:00 GMT

Good Friday to one and all and thanks for all you do for the blog. We are heading into a wet weekend here across Kentucky and an increasing threat for some heavy rains and thunderstorms later today into tonight and Saturday. This will force us to keep an eye on creeks and streams for the chance for some high water. Eventually... areas along the Ohio River are going to have to keep an eye on water levels as snow melt in the Appalachian mountains and the potential for heavy rains in those same areas send the river levels up.

Today will start out calm enough with some sunshine taking us into the afternoon hours. Low pressure will be working into western Kentucky and Tennessee this afternoon into tonight and will cause a surge of rain and storms to break out ahead of it. This band of heavy rain and strong storms will roll northeastward across the region. More rounds of showers would then continue into the day on Saturday as cooler temps and gusty winds work their way in here.

The models are spitting out some heavy amounts of rainfall in some areas. Take a look at what a couple of them show through Saturday night...

You can see many areas are forecast to get an inch or more of rain during this time. The models are both having their problems trying to pinpoint the exact placement of the heaviest rains as they don't handle thunderstorms very well.

I mentioned possible flooding for along the Ohio River and the extreme northeastern Kentucky counties are under a FLOOD WATCH because of this possibility...

Areas upstream along the mighty Ohio are also under Flood Watches with a few flood warnings out...

Keep in mind that snow melt from the mountains already has streams and some rivers on the rise. Throw some heavy rain on top of that and significant rises along the Ohio River will be likely over the next several days and into next week. Just something to keep an eye on right now.

You can track today's rounds of showers and storms rolling our way from the southwest here on regional radar...

As mentioned earlier... we also have to watch for a few strong or severe storms later today. Here is the latest severe weather map from the storm prediction center...

I will have updates as needed today so be sure to check back. Have a great Friday and take care.

A Thundering Thursday?

Chris Bailey — Thu, 11 Mar 2010 04:59:00 GMT

Good Thursday everyone and thanks for checking out the blog. This is the time of year when we begin to shift gears from winter mode to spring mode and that means thunderstorms and the threat for severe weather start to take center stage. The threat for some booming storms will be with us today across parts of the state and that is something for us to keep an eye on and that is just what the blog will be doing.

We have talked and talked about the overall setup that finds low pressure across the plains states. This SLOW moving low is going to continue to sit and spin for a few more days and this puts us squarely into the warm sector. That means very mild temps roll on with temps today and Friday back into the 60s with 70 or a touch better possible for areas getting some decent sunshine.This also means an increasing threat for showers and storms... some of which could be strong or even severe and produce locally heavy rains.

The best threat for severe weather today into tonight will be across central and western Kentucky. Here is the latest all inclusive severe weather map from the Storm Predication Center...

Take a look at how photogenic this storm is and at what a reach it has across the country here on Water Vapor...

It looks like a line of showers and storms will come rolling in from west to east today and you can track the line here on regional radar...

Friday will see a break in the action to start out the day before showers and storms get cranking again during the afternoon and evening hours. Here is what the GFS looks like during that time...

Friday Afternoon

Friday Evening

That takes us into the weekend and a much colder pattern that will set up. More on and off showers will be with us during this time and those will likely hold strong into Monday. Highs for Sunday and Monday will likely be in the chilly 40s.

The good news is that the sun and milder air will push in here for the middle and end of next week.

I will have updates on the storms as needed so make sure you check back. Have a great Thursday and take care.

Wild Pattern Taking Shape

Chris Bailey — Wed, 10 Mar 2010 04:45:00 GMT

Good Wednesday gang and welcome to a pattern that is looking pretty wild for a while. The overall setup for the next week will feature a mega cutoff low sitting and spinning across the region and this will give us a continued taste of spring weather the rest of this week. That will be followed up by a rather nasty period of weather from the weekend into early next week that may feature some more flakes trying to get back into the mix. I know... I am tired of that stuff too.

Tuesday saw our temps hit 70 in a lot of the area and the potential for another 70 is with us on any day that features enough breaks in the clouds this week. Scattered showers will be out there today... but there should be plenty of breaks in the clouds giving today a shot to hit that mark in a few areas. You can track today's scattered stuff here on radar...

Low pressure will be camped out across the plains states through Friday before giving way to another low just to our east by the weekend. That low will then get pulled back west into the Ohio Valley by Sunday and Monday to give us much colder temps and one heck of an ugly stretch with more showers and even the chance for some snowflakes mixing in.

A good shot of rain will come Thursday as showers and thunderstorms increase and these may bring some locally heavy rains.

NAM Thursday Evening

The same can be said for later Friday into Friday evening and I can actually see where we try to crank a strong storm or two out of all this.

GFS Friday Evening

The setup over the next few days will produce some severe weather across the country. It is also one that would make for a major outbreak severe weather outbreak later this spring.

As mentioned... the weather this weekend into early next week will look and feel much different than the next few days. Watch the eastern low work back to the west as colder air dumbbells underneath it...

GFS Saturday Afternoon

Sunday Afternoon

Sunday Evening

You get the idea... our spring fling will be coming to an end later this weekend and early next week.

If you are a fan of severe weather and tornadoes here is a MUST SEE video from a twister that touched down in Oklahoma Monday...

File that one away under the WOW category!

I will have updates as needed so make sure you check back.

Spring Fever Alert!

Chris Bailey — Tue, 09 Mar 2010 03:53:00 GMT

Good Tuesday to one and all and thanks for blogging. I have decided to add a little bling to the blog by using the graphic above... please don't judge me. The weather across the area today will feature the warmest day of the year as temps make a run toward 70 in many areas. With the good comes the bad as some spring like showers and even some thunderstorms increases as the week goes by.

First things are first and that is the warmest air of the season today which will unleash a nasty case of spring fever. Sunshine will be noted for most of the day before some clouds increase from west to east during the afternoon. Western Kentucky will see some on and off showers leading to cooler temps today. You can track the 70 degree potential here...

Current Temps

Today's Highs

You can get a good look at the showers moving our way with the regional radar...

The low across the plains states is a good looking one and one that will hang tough to our west for the rest of the week. It will send a few showers in here Tuesday night and Wednesday with a good slug of moisture coming in here for Thursday. Some rumbles of thunder will be possible by that time. Temps will remain VERY mild with 60s for highs through Friday. Much colder air will work in by the weekend as a second low develops to our east and rides northward up the eastern slopes of the Appalachian Mountains. This will throw more moisture back in here for Saturday and Sunday and it may be just cold enough for some wet snows to develop late this weekend... especially in the mountains.

Here is what the European Model is showing...

Chilly weather with some rain and snow showers look to hang tough into the early part of next week as our overall pattern takes on a much more wintry look. This may carry us into the middle and end of March.

Enjoy today's awesome weather and take care.

Wild Weather Week Ahead?

Chris Bailey — Mon, 08 Mar 2010 04:02:00 GMT

Good Monday everyone. We are coming off of a wonderful weather weekend across the state and I hope you got a chance to take full advantage of it because this coming weekend could be very different. Before we get to that point... this week of weather looks rather mild and increasingly stormy.

A very weak system moved across the state overnight bringing some scattered showers. Those will be trucking it on out of here early this morning and you can follow their progress here...

Skies will quickly become partly sunny by middle and late morning allowing for a quick rise in temps. Highs will soar toward the lower 60s by this afternoon giving us a great feeling and looking day.

Tuesday may try to do that a little better in many areas of central and eastern Kentucky as thermometers make a run at 70! Out west... clouds and some showers will be rolling in keeping temps much cooler. Anyone will be fair game for a few showers by Tuesday evening into Wednesday. This happens as a SLOW moving storm camps out across the plains states. We will be on the eastern side of this through Friday meaning a southerly wind flow that will boost temps toward 60 or beyond through Friday. The best chance for showers and some thunderstorms will be Thursday into Friday as this low finally starts to move a little bit. A coastal low will begin to develop in the east this weekend and will bring more showers to us. It will also bring much colder air in here meaning we will have to watch for some wet snows at some point. You can see the progression of all this by looking at the European model...

Given the pattern I am seeing for the middle and end of March... I imagine another snowfall or two is in the cards before we can truly get into a spring pattern.

I am working on the late spring and summer forecast right now and will have that for you guys here in a few weeks.

Have a great Monday and take care.

Go Outside and Play

Chris Bailey — Sun, 07 Mar 2010 04:27:00 GMT

Good Sunday to one and all! The weather this weekend has been exactly what the weatherdude ordered... sunny, milder and quiet! This is what I have been needing after a loooooong winter of forecasting. Since the weather is so quiet... go out and play and stop reading the blog. But... if you can't tear yourself away from this piece of weather art... I will give you some weather headlines.

1. Today looks great as temps warm well into the 50s across the entire region. Sunny skies will be with us again... but a few clouds will roll our way by late this afternoon.

2. A weak system will bring a couple of showers to us tonight into the first couple of hours of Monday. The sun will return during the afternoon Monday boosting temps toward 60.

3. Low pressure continues to SLOWLY wind up across the plains states by Tuesday. This may bring a few showers out west during the day. The big news will be the temps that may make a run toward.... are you sitting down? 70!

4. The period from Wednesday through Friday looks to feature more mild temps and the threat for on and off showers.

5. Colder air will eventually work in here at some point by next weekend as the low finally moves off to our east.

Ok... thats all you guys get now. I am going to continue to recharge the batteries for the severe weather season that is ahead of us. It should be a late bloomer... but when it goes, could be a big boomer!

Have a great Sunday and take care.

Awesome Looking Weekend In Progress

Chris Bailey — Sat, 06 Mar 2010 05:23:00 GMT

Good Saturday everyone and welcome to one heck of a weather weekend. We have some great looking weather ahead of us the next few days before the pattern becomes active into next week. It looks like a prolonged period of soggy weather may be in store before we try to switch the pattern back toward winter for a bit. Moral of the story... enjoy the next few days.

Temps today make a run toward 50 in many areas with low 50s in the west as sunny skies return. Sunday will see more sun with a few afternoon clouds rolling in. Thermometers will warm well into the 50s for everyone.

The clouds will continue to thicken up Sunday night as a weak system dives in here from the northwest. This will likely bring a few showers in here into the early part of Monday. Temps for Monday will be tricky as readings will depend on how fast the clouds and showers clear out. If we do break out into sunshine... highs will soar toward 60.

That brings us to the active weather pattern that develops for Tuesday and hangs around through the week and even into next weekend. A slow moving low pressure will be roaming across the plains states. Ahead of it... temps around here will be fairly mild with 50s and maybe even some 60s for Tuesday and Wednesday. That will come with a price as showers increase. Check out the GFS...

Tuesday Evening

Wednesday Evening

Thursday Evening

There is some question as to how quickly this low tries to tap some cold air by the end of the week. The overall blocking that is still showing up suggests it will have some cold to pull in as it works eastward and the some of the models are showing this...

Friday Evening

We will figure out all that in the coming days. Just go out and shake out the winter rust and enjoy a few days of nice March weather. Have a great Saturday and take care.

A Good Looking Weekend Ahead

Chris Bailey — Fri, 05 Mar 2010 05:02:00 GMT

Good Friday everyone. We are finally heading into a decent looking weekend here across the state. The sunshine we had out there on Thursday was just what the doctor ordered and that looks to continue into the weekend as our temps come up a bit. Some changes will be rolling here next week though as a slow moving storm system rolls our way.

Let's jump into it all...

Today will see a partly to mostly sunny sky as temps hang in the low and mid 40s once again. While this is nice... you have to keep in mind that normal highs are in the 50s for this time of year.

Saturday looks even better with more sun and temps that will be a bit warmer with mid and upper 40s with a 50 out west.

Sunday will be a breezy day as temps hit the low 50s. There is a weak system that will dive in here late in the day into early Monday. Clouds will increase during the afternoon and there is likely to be a quick moving band of showers moving in. This batch may hang around into the start of Monday meaning a tricky temp forecast is in the cards. If the clouds hang tough then upper 40s to near 50 will be as good as it gets. If the clouds decrease then we make a run at 60.

A slow moving low pressure system will camp out across the southern plains for a few days early next week. This means fairly mild temps will be with us into the middle of next week. This may also be a pretty wet period into the end of the week. Take a look at the setup on the GFS...

Wednesday Evening

Thursday Evening

Friday Evening

We will have to keep an eye on this setup for a couple of reasons. The first being the potential for a prolonged rain event if the models are correct. If the models are not correct... colder air may give this storm a more wintry feel before it is over.

That's all you get for now. I will have updates as needed and through the weekend so make sure you check back. Have a great Friday and take care.

Is That The Sun?

Chris Bailey — Thu, 04 Mar 2010 05:07:00 GMT

Good Thursday everyone and a big thanks for making the blog a source for your weather needs. There is likely to be a strange object in the sun today across much of the area and it is likely to look something like this...

A little sunshine will FINALLY make a visit to the region after some nasty looking days so far this week. The sun will follow up a few morning clouds that can still produce a few flurries and can boost temps toward the low 40s for most with mid 40s in the west. You can follow today's temps through the great folks at Kentucky Mesonet...

Friday will be another day that will feature some sunshine with temps again in the low and mid 40s after a very cold start in the upper teens and low 20s.

If you are looking for some warmer weather... the weekend should turn out to be just what you have been looking for. Notice I say warmer and not warm. Saturday will see temps range from the 40s east to low and mid 50s out west. Sunday and Monday will turn out to be even warmer with everyone in the 50s and even a shot at the 60s with partly sunny skies hanging tough. This will be a weekend that should put some smiles on those winter weathered faces across the region.

Our next storm system will roll in by Tuesday and Wednesday of next week with our next threat for showers. You can see this low heading our way by Tuesday morning on the latest GFS...

Colder air will then filter back in behind this departing storm as winter tries to make a comeback for the middle of the month. The pattern for the middle and end of March continues to suggest some more snow chances as old man winter refuses to go down without a fight.

In the coming days I will be talking about some cool things we are going to be doing with the blog over the next few months. The hope is to take the blog to new heights later this year.

Have a great Thursday and take care.

I Am Ready For Spring!

Chris Bailey — Wed, 03 Mar 2010 05:15:00 GMT

Good Wednesday everyone and a big thanks for dropping by the blog. The first few days of March have been rather ugly across the state as our cold winter rolls on. Today will be no different as the chill of a long winter hangs on. Many of you know I am a fan of winter... but I am ready for spring! Once we get to the month of March... I would just assume to let the spring time weather roll. I wish that were the case... but true spring weather is going to be in short supply this month and we are likely not done with cold and snow chances.

Some areas will be seeing those snow chances today as snow showers and flurries dance about the air across parts of eastern and southeastern Kentucky. This can lay down another minor accumulation... mainly early this morning and you can track the scattered stuff here...

Highs today will continue to run WELL below normal with mainly 30s. Thursday could still feature a few flurries or snow showers early across the east as some sunshine returns to central and western Kentucky. Highs there will warm into the upper 30s and lower 40s.

Friday will see the milder air really trying to fight in here with 40s across the board with sunny skies.

The weekend will see a taste of spring fighting in here as temps rebound toward the 50s with a shot at 60 for either Sunday or Monday. I am seeing a chink in the weekend pattern trying to show up on some of the models as a weak trough tries to dig in from the north. This could try to delay our warmup a bit by bringing a few clouds in here. Something to keep in mind.

A storm system will roll our way by early and middle of the week and it looks like it is slowing down some. This will bring our next chance for some widespread RAIN showers. We haven't said that very much this winter, so a little variety will do us good.

Regardless... we are not done with the cold and we are not done with snow chances as the middle and end of March should feature more of both. I know... it's a little depressing.. but everything will be alright...

Crank it up and sing along cause Hootie... uhhh... Darius says so!

I will update things as needed so check back. Until next time... have a great Wednesday and take care.

Old Man Winter Hanging Around

Chris Bailey — Tue, 02 Mar 2010 05:47:00 GMT

Good Tuesday to one and all. Some parts of the state will be seeing some snow today as old man winter keeps on doing what he has been doing for more than three months now. A storm system across the gulf of Mexico states is cruising toward the coastal Carolinas today and is taking a snowy swipe at the region.

Take a look at just how close this storm was to becoming a biggie around here...

GFS This Morning

This Afternoon

This Evening

A period of light snow should be pushing across parts of the southern and southeastern Kentucky this morning into the early afternoon hours. Temps will be close to the freezing mark so whatever falls will be on the slushy side. The timing on this could impact the morning commute in a some areas.

As the low pressure winds up off the east coast... northwesterly winds will bring snow showers to the region Tuesday night into Wednesday with a few of those sticking around into Wednesday night. Combine the stuff with today and the snow showers that will fall over the next few days and your snowfall may look something like this...

It is March so we will deal with some melting issues during the afternoon hours of each day. You can track the wintry weather here...

Highs will stay in the 30s through Friday. That leads us to the weekend and it is looking like one heck of a nice weather weekend as warmer air surges in here. Highs by Saturday will make a run toward 50 and should be close to 60 by Sunday as both days feature sunshine.

Highs by Monday could go well into the 60s as southwesterly winds increase ahead of a storm across the plains states. This system will bring a chance of rain to us by Monday night into Tuesday and this will be followed by more chilly air.

Ok... thats all I have for you right now. Help us out by posting the weather conditions where you are. Have a great Tuesday and take care.

Monday Night Update

Chris Bailey — Tue, 02 Mar 2010 00:35:00 GMT

Good evening everyone. I wanted to drop by for a quick update on the potential for some accumulating snows for parts of southern and southeastern Kentucky starting later tonight. The storm across the gulf is just now getting it's act together and will ride northeast toward the coast of the Carolinas over the next 24 hours. The models have been moving a tad farther north with each run and the latest round of model runs bring a swath of accumulating snows into some areas.

Here is what the new GFS shows for snow from late Tonight through Wednesday...

The snows across the southeast would come in a couple of waves with the first late tonight into Tuesday. This would be snow from the actual storm itself and could be to the tune of an inch or two... with a little more in the higher elevations. The rest would fall from late Tuesday through Wednesday night as upslope snow showers kick in. I think Tuesday night can lay down, at least, a coating of snow across much of the area.

This is a storm to keep a close eye on for the folks across the south and east as it would not take much more of a northward jog to bring decent snows into those areas. This is something the blog has been talking about for several days now and the overall setup for a big storm around here is thisclose from being there.

You can track the northward move of the precip here...

I will have more with the full update later tonight. Have a great evening and take care.

A Winter To Remember For Many

Chris Bailey — Mon, 01 Mar 2010 04:46:00 GMT

Good Monday everyone and welcome to March and the start of meteorological spring. That means meteorological winter is now officially in the books and what a winter we are close to wrapping up! It has been record setting in terms of snow and temps for much of the region and we can label this as one to remember.

Why can we give the winter of 2009/2010 that label? Check out some of the stats for the period December 1^st through February 28^th for some of the official reporting stations…

Lexington

Avg. Temp: 30.7 (-3.2 below normal)

This marked the coldest average Lexington winter temp since 1978/79

Snowfall: 23.9” (10.4“ above normal)

The 12.9” that fell in February goes down as the 5^th snowiest February on record

Louisville

Avg. Temp: 32.5 (-3.6 below normal)

This marked the coldest average Louisville winter temp since 1981/82

Snowfall: 21.3” (10“ above normal)

The 13.9” that fell in February goes down as the 4^th snowiest February on record.

Ashland/Huntington

Avg. Temp: 31.9 (-3.7 below normal)　

Snowfall: 40.1” (14.6“ above normal)

This marks the 9^th snowiest winter on record

The 15.8” that fell in January goes down as the 10^th snowiest January on record

The 16.8” that fell in February goes down as the 6^th snowiest February on record　

Jackson

Avg. Temp: 32.0 (-4.6 below normal)　

This marks the coldest winter on record

Snowfall: 50.3” ( 25.6” above normal)

This marks the snowiest winter on record

The 17.6” that fell in December marks the snowiest December on record　

Covington

Avg. Temp: 29.0 (-3.7 below normal)

Snowfall: 38.1 ( 14.4” above normal)

This marks the 5^th snowiest winter on record

The numbers don't lie and the winter forecast we gave back in November has worked out as good as such a forecast could. We were one of the very few outlets pointing toward a cold and snowy winter for this area and for much of the eastern half of the country. If you are interested... you can take a look back at my call... A Winter Worth The Wait- UPDATED

Someone recently emailed me a post I made back at the end of July showing how the summer signs were all pointing toward a cold winter as well... Does Record Cold July Mean Cold Winter Ahead?

So... where do we go from here?

The pattern for the first several days of March remains very cold. You have to remember that normal highs for this time of year are now into the 50s meaning the mainly 30s of this week are way below where they should be.

The southern storm is still expected to brush the area with some snows Tuesday and Wednesday. Southeastern Kentucky will have the highest risk of picking up some accumulating snows out of this. You can see just how close this storm gets here on the GFS...

Tuesday Afternoon

Tuesday Evening

It would not take much of a northern correction of the track of that low to bring some decent snows into parts of the area. But... it is running out of time to correct itself.

If you are looking for some spring... I have a couple of days coming your way this weekend. Highs in the 50s with a shot at 60 will be on tap. The problem is this is a "false start" to spring as the cold returns soon after and it may bring some more flakes with it...

March 10th

I will have updates as needed today so check back. Have a great Monday and take care.

Freezing Drizzle/Snow Into Early Sunday

Chris Bailey — Sun, 28 Feb 2010 04:13:00 GMT

Hello everyone and thanks for dropping by the blog. I think the long hours I have put in during this busy winter are taking a toll on your friendly weather dude as I am a touch under the weather. No worries.. I am tough! Well... I tell myself that I am, anyway. So... let's keep this update short and to the point.

Freezing drizzle and some snow are working across the state tonight and will continue into early Sunday. This will cause some nasty travel in some areas so be on the lookout. The best chance for a light accumulation of snow will be across the far eastern parts of the state. You can track the mess here...

The Lexington weather cam shows the icy glaze very well...

Lexington

Some snow showers or flurries will linger out there today... especially the farther east you are. Highs will again be well below normal in the middle 30s.

As of right now... the next storm system looks to brush the state by Tuesday and Wednesday as it takes a southern track. The models are VERY close to getting the upper air pattern more favorable to bring this storm northward and allowing it to have a much greater impact on the area. As is... the best chance for snow would be across the southeast. Here is what the NAM Model Shows...

Tuesday Evening

Tuesday Night

Wednesday Morning

We will see how the model trends go over the next few days as I would not be surprised to see a correction to the north. Time will tell.

Have a great Sunday and I will update as needed. Take care.

Saturday Snow Update

Chris Bailey — Sat, 27 Feb 2010 07:47:00 GMT

Good Saturday everyone... I hope your weekend is getting started off on a good note. Parts of the state are starting the weekend out with... drum roll please... more snow! I have picked up a fresh 2"-4" in my part of the world as of this writing from a hefty snow band that continues to work westward across the region.

Areas that get under this snow band will pick up a general 1"-3" of snow. Areas in the northeast that already have a few inches on the ground can get totals closer to 5 inches out of this. The snows will taper off some today and you can track it all right here...

Another round of snows will likely develop overnight into early Sunday and this can drop another inch or two in some spots.

Here are a few weather cams for you to check out...

Lexington

Pikeville

I-75 Northern Ky Near Covington

Ashland

We have the next storm to track coming early next week. Will it come far enough north to bring another round of snows to the region? We will tackle that question with the next update. Take care.

Winter Weather Advisory

Chris Bailey — Fri, 26 Feb 2010 22:31:00 GMT

Good evening everyone. A Winter Weather Advisory is now out for much of central and eastern Kentucky tonight into part of Saturday. Snows are moving in from northeast to southwest and will continue to overspread the state. Some of the snows will come down at a good clip with accumulations ranging from 1"-4" across most areas by noon Saturday. Some locally higher amounts across the east and southeast will be possible.

Here is a look at the counties included in the advisory...

I would have included several more counties to the west and south of the current advisory as i think this band of snow is going to back all the way west to I-65. You can track this band on radar...

Another shot of accumulating snows will be likely Saturday night with another little system diving in from the north. Help us out by posting the weather where you live.

Take care.

Steady Snows Kick In Tonight

Chris Bailey — Fri, 26 Feb 2010 07:14:00 GMT

Good Friday to one and all and thanks so much for dropping by the blog. We will be catching a break from the snow showers today as we get set to see something rare take place around here... precipitation moving from northeast to southwest across the state. This means steady snows will break out late this evening into the overnight with accumulations likely into Saturday. We will talk about this and take a look at next week's storm potential.

The big blizzard is raging across parts of the northeastern states. This has a massive circulation with it and as the storm backs westward into Pennsylvania... it will send a chunk of energy our way this evening into early Saturday. This will cause a band of steady snow to breakout and work toward the southwest. You can really get a good look at how this plays out with these maps I made from the latest NAM model...

That should be a rather healthy batch of moderate snows associated with this lobe of energy swinging through here. With the majority of the snows coming after dark... accumulations are a good bet for a lot of folks. You can track the northeast blizzard and the southwest moving batch of snow with a couple of regional radars I have set aside for you...

This batch of snow will continue to work backward across the region into Saturday. It is by this time we return to the snow showers and squalls that should try to hang tough into Sunday in some areas. How much more snow can we expect? Here is a map with my latest thoughts...

Temps during the weekend will remain WELL BELOW normal as we get set to close out the month of February. The opening week of March will be just as cold as spring shows no signs of showing up anytime soon. The blog has been yapping about the potential for another big storm threat for the first week of March for some time now. The models had been all over this then went way south and out to sea for the past few days. We said they were probably wrong and to expect a northward trend with the storm and sure enough... the models are all doing just that for the Tuesday and Wednesday storm.
Here is the European Model...

Canadian Model...

Even the south and east biased GFS is coming north...

The pattern continues to look ripe for this storm next week and perhaps another storm closer to the middle of March. Once again... I want to stress that an early spring is out of the picture this year and that old man winter still has a ways to go.

I will have more updates as needed today so check back. Have a great Friday and take care.

February On Record Snow Pace

Chris Bailey — Thu, 25 Feb 2010 18:20:00 GMT

Good afternoon everyone and thanks for all you guys do for the blog. Snow showers and some squalls continue to fall across the state this afternoon and that will continue into the evening. Once the sun goes down... this stuff will start to stick again and will create slick travel. The greatest concentration of snows will be across the east and southeast. You can track the snows here...

The overall forecast remains on course as more snows will be falling over the next several days. The map I put out last night looks good to me right now so I have no changes.

Lexington picked up 2 inches of snow last night bringing this month into record territory for snowfall. Here is the list of the top ten snowiest Februarys for Lexington...

February

17.4” 1998

16.4” 1960

14.7” 1894

13.5” 1929

12.0” 1964

11.9" 2010

It is good to see this year sneaking up to number 6 on the list and I think it winds up in the top 3 or 4 before all is said and done. What is amazing to me is that one of my analog years for the winter forecast... 1963/64 is siting just above this February on that list. Maybe there is something to my analog methods after all.

By the way... if Lexington receives 3 more inches of snow this winter... it will break into the top 10 snowiest on record. The city currently stands at 23.7" for the winter. I would wager that we crack the top 10.

I will update things as needed so check back. Take care.

Slick Roads Start Wintry Period

Chris Bailey — Thu, 25 Feb 2010 06:21:00 GMT

Good Thursday everyone. Snow showers and squalls have been working their way across the state overnight and this has caused some terrible travel troubles for many areas. The overnight snows put down anywhere from a coating to as much as 5 or 6 inches in a few spots across the southeast. This is the beginning of what should turn out to be a pretty snowy period for parts of the state... especially across the east.

Here is your regional radar to track the snows...

Let's break down what I am expecting over the next several days...

- Snow showers and squalls will taper off for a bit this afternoon into the evening... especially the farther west you live.

- Little systems will be diving in across the area from Thursday night into the upcoming weekend. Each of these will result in an increase in snow showers and squalls.

- The strongest system should roll in here later Friday into Saturday with widespread snows breaking out. This will likely be an interesting feature to watch as it may roll in here from northeast to southwest.

- In between these systems... a lull in the snowfall will occur. During the afternoon hours... this means some melting is a good bet as the sun is getting higher and higher in the sky.

- Northwesterly winds will also contribute to the snowfall... especially across the east and the highest mountains.

- Snow showers will likely continue all the way into Sunday.

- Winds will be increasing and this will cause blowing and drifting for whatever snow you have outside your house.

- Keep in mind that the snowfall totals I am talking about are from the combination of the next 4 days. As mentioned... some melting will be taking place so your snowfall is going to be greater than your snow depth at any one time.

Here is what I am expecting...

Here are a few cams for you guys to check out to see how things are looking across the state...

Lexington

Richmond

Pikeville

I-75 Northern Ky Near Covington

Ashland

Louisville Metro

Overall... our weather pattern continues to be MUCH colder than normal and that will continue through next week. The computer models are still showing the early week storm... but they have it passing by to our south and east. I am not giving up on this one yet as something is telling me this will come farther north.

I will have updates as needed today so keep checking back. Have a great day and take care.