Author Archives: Chris Bailey

Time posted: 3:41 pm

Monday Afternoon Update

Good afternoon, everyone. It’s a gorgeous fall day in the bluegrass state with more nice weather through the middle of the week. This nice stuff comes with even chillier temps. By the end of the week, the pattern gets back to active with a DEEP trough being carved out across our region. That will spawn a couple of big storm systems.

The pattern was always going to throw a big trough our way for the end of October, but the remnants of Category 5 Pacific Hurricane Willa ups the ante on the trough.

Check out all energy rotating through the deep trough…

The Canadian continues to be the most phased with the surface system, but not as much as last night’s run. Notice how it still spits out a monster storm with another system developing as energy dives in behind it from the northwest…

The European Model takes this massive system up the east coast from late Thursday through early Saturday…

This also shows the next system quickly diving in from the northwest by late weekend into early next week…

The GFS continues to show its progressive bias with systems across the south and east, but it’s trying to get to where it needs to be. It also shows the system diving in behind the main storm…

For us, all of this means gusty winds, chilly temps and rounds of rain. There’s an outside chance for a flake with the second system moving in late weekend and early next week.

Enjoy the rest of your day and take care.

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Time posted: 2:51 am

Tracking A Potential Big Storm System

Good Monday to one and all. Since our pattern flipped on a dime almost 2 weeks ago, temperatures have been running much colder than normal. That pattern shows little sign of breaking as we head into another cold week. Things do get busy by the weekend as that major amplification of the jet stream takes place. You know… That thing I’ve been pointing toward for well over a week now. 😉

Before we get to the weekend setup, let’s talk about the chill that leads us into that. Temps stay solidly below normal the next few days, then another  cold shot moves in for the middle of the week…

For more than a week now, I’ve been trying to drive home the fact I was picking up on a healthy signal for a major amplification to the jet stream across the eastern half of the country. Well that setup is on the way and it’s going to develop a big storm system.

What’s upping the ante on this setup is the likelihood of another Pacific hurricane getting into the mix. Powerful Hurricane Willa will come ashore along the Mexico border on Tuesday, then rapidly head toward Texas…

cone graphic

That energy will then merge with additional energy diving in from the northwest.  How much phasing and the timing of these phases remains to be seen, but some wild weather is on the table for the eastern part of the country. The Canadian has the wildest solution at the moment. Watch this fully phased upper level system on the current run…

That produces a MONSTER winter storm…

Though it does keep the winter weather mainly north and east of us… Wow.

The European Model isn’t quite as extreme, but it’s close. It shows the eastern winter storm, but isn’t as phased as the Canadian…

Taken verbatim, both the Canadian and European Models are show a crushing early seasons snowstorm from the Appalachian mountains to our east into the northeastern states.

As far as the GFS is concerned, the model bias is to ALWAYS be too far south and east with cold season storms. That’s what’s happening with the latest run, but if you correct it west, you get something similar to the Euro and Canadian…

For Kentucky, this setup likely produces rain, wind and cold. Can we get a little something more out of that setup? Perhaps. It’s all about the phasing.

I will have an update or two coming later today, so check back.

Have a great Monday and take care.

6 Comments

Time posted: 1:38 am

Mr. Freeze Pays A Visit

Good Sunday, everyone. Our old friend Mr. Freeze is back in the bluegrass state for the next couple of mornings. Many areas have already experienced a light freeze, but this one will pretty much finish off the growing season. As we look ahead, a very active pattern is evolving for the final week of October.

Our Sunday is starting with a freeze in many areas of Kentucky. The rest of the day looks really good, but cold. Highs will only be in the upper 40s to low 50s with almost full sun. Lows by Monday morning are back into the upper 20s and low 30s for many, bringing another freeze.

The first half of the week ahead looks really, really good! Frosty cold mornings will be followed by cool and dry afternoons. All of this as the fall colors begin to finally take off.

The setup for the final week of October is one  that will feature a major amplification in our jet stream.

This allows for big storm systems to develop, with potential impacts from each system really hard to determine from a week or so out.

The latest seasonal run of the European Model has a similar winter look as some of the other seasonal runs I’ve been sharing with you over the past few weeks.

We are looking at the average 500mb monthly anomalies on the maps below and they show a clear deep trough in the east and ridge in the west…

November has a weak trough developing in the east…

December goes bonkers with the trough…

That would certainly make for a very cold and, likely, snowy run up to Christmas.

The trough isn’t as deep in January, but it’s still there…

It snaps back in a big way for February…

And it continues into March…

If it pans out, that would certainly be one heck of a winter for much of the country!

I will be talking more about winter in the week ahead, including showing some of the driving forces I’m finding.

Have a great Sunday and take care.

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Time posted: 3:00 pm

Saturday Afternoon Update

Good afternoon, folks. Winds are really cranking as we get set for a big time fall cold front to slam in here. This will bring a broken line of showers with it this evening, but the winds and cold steal the weather show.

Here’s your interactive radar to track the action…

Winds may reach 40mph at times as the front moves through. Strong northwesterly winds tonight may try to pick up a touch of moisture from Lake Michigan and bring it as far south as the bluegrass state. I still cannot rule out a snow flurry or two from this, with the best chance being in the southeastern mountains. That said, you can see the “lake flake” plume into parts of northern Kentucky…

Temps overnight drop into the mid and upper 20s for some, setting the stage for a freeze…

Wind chill numbers will be in low 20s at times to begin the day. Another freeze is likely Sunday night, with sun and upper 40s to low 50s in between.

The setup for the final week of October continues to look very amplified…

Have a great rest of the day and take care.

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Time posted: 2:09 am

A Strong Fall Front Arrives

Good Saturday, everyone. We have a powerhouse of a cold front working into the bluegrass state later today. This boundary will crash through here and bring a healthy blast of cold air. There’s even the slight risk for the first snow flurry of the season to show up in the east.

Our day begins with departing showers as skies slowly become party sunny. A mix of sun and clouds will be noted this afternoon with isolated showers around. As the front slams in this evening, a broken line of very gusty showers will move through…

Gusty winds will crank and may reach 30mph-40mph at times. As the front moves through, temps drop some 10-20 degrees in an hour or so. Gusty northwesterly winds will then kick in and that’s a flow that can throw a few sprinkles or snow flurries into the Ohio Valley and the Appalachian Mountains…

Most of that stays north and east of Kentucky, but A flake or two may get very close to us. The best chance for a flake is across the southeast…

Temps by Sunday morning range from the middle 20s to low 30s. Wind chills will be even colder. Sunny skies will only manage to warm us into the upper 40s and low 50s. Gusty winds make it feel colder.

Next week starts with another freeze Monday morning, but some pretty nice weather is on tap through the middle of the week. This actually looks VERY nice!

Late next week into the following week, we begin to see some major buckles in the jet stream…

That can fire up several big, slow-moving storm systems…

I may throw you another update later today. On Sunday, I will show you a new seasonal model for the winter ahead. It’s an attention getter. 😉

Have a great Saturday and take care.

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