Daily Archives: November 23, 2017

Time posted: 7:28 pm

Thanksgiving Update

Good evening and Happy Thanksgiving. The weather continues to be optimal for holiday travelers across the entire region. This is a setup that rolls right on through the upcoming “traditional” weekend. Beyond that, the pattern begins to turn much more active.

Before we look ahead, we have to give it up for this morning’s lows…

Upper teens and low 20s are among the colder numbers we have had on a Thanksgiving in quite some time, and it made for the coldest morning so far this month.

Nice weather will continue for Friday and into Saturday, so holiday shoppers have no issues from the sky. Winds will be gusty as afternoon temps hit the 50s. Enjoy.

A cold front drops in late Saturday, but the core of the cold stays just to our northeast on Sunday…

That brings us a quick hitting shot of seasonal chill, with southwesterly winds booting that out quickly on Monday. This will mean a return to temps similar to what we will see Tomorrow and Saturday.

The models are all over the place for the middle and end of next week. I actually like how the GFS is currently handling a trough digging into the plains states. It cuts off a part of that, rolling it toward us for the second half of next week…

You can see the colder air coming in behind that as it departs to our northeast.

There is a heck of a fight going on with the global signals, right now. They are evenly split between a cold signal and a milder signal over the next week to 10 days. The colder signal is likely to win the battle, but it will take a bit to battle it out. You can see the eventual victory showing up on the GFS in early December…

I will talk more about this battle with the overnight post. Enjoy the rest of your Thanksgiving and take care.

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Time posted: 2:06 am

Happy Thanksgiving Weather Thoughts

Good Thursday and Happy Thanksgiving. I want you to know I am very appreciative and thankful for each and every one of you. You have turned our little weather community into a must stop for many people across the entire region. I’ve said it many times, but you all are the backbone of this site.

The weather on this Thanksgiving looks absolutely great. Temps are deep in the 20s this morning, then rise into the 40s this afternoon.

Black Friday shoppers will be facing a mix of sun and clouds with upper 20s and low 30s in the morning, with temps hitting the 50s in the afternoon. Winds are going to be very gusty.

A cold front¬†moves in on Saturday and may bring a stray shower or two. Winds will be gusty, with a hit and run cold shot behind it for Sunday…

Temps rebound quickly early next week as our flow becomes southwesterly. This is ahead of another system moving in by the middle of the week…

Last night, I showed you the European Ensembles that took December into the tank in terms of winter weather across the eastern part of the country. Granted, that’s a long range forecast the model is making, but the medium range models are showing something similar as we usher in December.

The GFS Ensembles show some healthy blocking signatures showing up, with a deepening trough in the eastern part of the country…

The ensembles have done a pretty good job with the cold shots we’ve had from late October through much of November. A similar pattern occurring a month later has much different implications in terms of severity of the cold shots and winter weather. If a pattern can produce snow in October around here, imagine what it can do in December or January.

I will have another update at some point later today. Have a very happy Thanksgiving and take care.