Daily Archives: September 26, 2018

Time posted: 1:35 am

Tracking storms and a cold front

Good Wednesday, everyone. A strong cold front is pushing across the state today, bringing strong storms and heavy rains with it. This boundary slowly sides to our south and east, with a better brand of air moving in. That said, I’m becoming more concerned this front stalls not too far away. That may keep the rain chances going for some.

Some interesting things are showing up in the longer range and I will get to those in a bit.

Let’s begin with the threat for heavy rain and strong storms. Our front is pushing through from northwest to southeast and will have most of the action along and ahead of it. A line of strong¬†storms may be just ahead of the front, bringing the potential for high winds and hail.

Torrential rains continue to fall from these showers and storms. That will keep the flood and flash flood threat going. I have you all set to do some tracking…

 

As mentioned, the front may very well stall just to our southeast on Thursday. That’s when a wave of low pressure develops along the front, bringing rain back into the east and southeast. The NAM is farthest west with the rains tomorrow…

Temps will be held way down into the 60s in many of these areas.

Showers may even linger into Friday morning across the southeast. Clearing skies should make for a great start to the weekend. Highs reach the 70-75 degree range for much of central and eastern Kentucky. Saturday looks awesome with upper 60s and low 70s for many, after starting in the 40s.

The pattern next week is threatening to take a walk on the wild side across the lower 48 and a couple tropical systems may be to blame. Let’s begin with a recurving typhoon…

As we get into the cool weather season, recurving systems in the western Pacific usually help send a deep trough into the eastern part of the United States about a week or so later.

In the eastern Pacific, Rosa is forecast to head toward the Baja, with the remnants getting into the southwestern part of the country…

So… we have pattern that should favor a big trough digging into the country at the same time the remnants of a Pacific tropical system are working into the southwestern part of the country.

The GFS takes that system and bombs it out ahead of the trough digging in behind it, then opens the floodgates on cold weather. Check out all the blue showing up on this…

That’s pretty amazing to see for the first week of October, even if it is just on a computer model.

The Canadian isn’t that far behind…

My earlier than normal frost thoughts are still alive and well for the first week and change of October.

Looking longer range at the latest European Ensembles run through the first week of November, we find the pattern flipping colder than normal. The latest also shows the first flake action showing up during this time…

That’s a heck of a snowpack being put down across Canada. Very interesting!

Have a great Wednesday and take care.

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