Daily Archives: September 29, 2018

Time posted: 1:40 am

Looking Down The Weather Road

Good Saturday, folks. It’s a gorgeous weekend in the bluegrass state as we get ready to slam the door on the month of September. This nice weather won’t carry over into early October as the threat for showers and thunderstorms rolls back in.

Today starts in the upper 40s and low 50s for many and ends with upper 60s and low 70s for many. A mix of sun and clouds will fill the gap in between. Sunday’s weather will look a  lot like today, but our temps will rise several degrees.

Next week continues to look like a warm one with the threat for showers and thunderstorms increasing. The first system throws scattered storms at us on Monday, with an increase in storms by Tuesday…

The end of the week into next weekend will feature a greater threat for rain and thunderstorms as a cold front drops in from the northwest. This front has a lot of early October cold air behind it, but it’s going to try to check up on top of us. If that’s the case, waves of low pressure may develop along the front, putting us back into a very wet pattern.

The tropics may also come back to life during this time. The tropics bully the overall pattern and you can see some action showing up now…

I’m really impressed by the amount of cold showing up across North America so early in the fall season. This early season cold is laying down one heck of a snowpack for this time of year. Look at the snow for the next 2 weeks on the GFS…

Why is all that important? Because a healthy early season snowpack means the cold shots, when they come, will actually be COLD shots. If you want winter weather, the cold is an essential ingredient, obviously. While those shots haven’t been directly aimed at us, yet, they are impressive for the areas getting them. At some point, that cold hits us and may hit us pretty darn hard early on in the season.

Something else of note… The new long range European Ensembles through November 14. The new run expects much of the country to see flakes during that time period…

The control run of the European is also pretty excited…

The CFS for the fist 2 weeks of November also suggests a shot at early season flakes…

I actually think there is some merit to fall flakes this season. Several of my analog years featured November snows, including 2014. Hint hint. 😉

Make it a great Saturday and take care.

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