Monthly Archives: October 2018

Time posted: 7:02 pm

Tuesday Evening Update

Good evening, everyone. We are in the middle of a very nice run of fall weather, but that’s about to change in a hurry. A major storm system rolls our way by the end of the week, with another to follow that up for the weekend. Moral of the story, some ugly weather is on the way.

Much of the energy for the end of the week storm is coming from a Pacific Hurricane names Willa. This storm is coming ashore along the Mexico coastline, but is already helping push clouds ahead of it all the way into our region…

That rolls across Texas and into the deep south on Thursday. This looks like a wintertime storm with a double barrel low pressure, with one working into the eastern Ohio Valley as the main low goes up the coast. Here’s the NAM for Thursday and Friday…

The European Model is in the same camp with the evolution of this potent storm…

That’s a nice rain and wind maker for our region, with chilly temps joining the party.

Another system then dives in here by Sunday and Monday, bringing some really ugly weather…

That’s not too far away from being a flake maker, but most of what falls should be in liquid form. Still, that’s one heck of a setup for this time of year and bodes well for the winter ahead.

In my last update, I mentioned a recurving western Pacific typhoon and how that likely means an even deeper trough later next week. The European is seeing this very well…

November is likely to be a very active, but fun weather month around here. Buckle up for what I think will be a wild weather ride!

Enjoy your evening and take care.

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Time posted: 2:18 am

Tracking The Late Week Storm

Good Tuesday, folks. We have a weak cold front slipping through the state today, bringing another shot of cold air for the next few days. As that happens, the overall pattern gets ready to really crank by the end of the week into the weekend. That’s when a deep trough slowly works across the eastern half of the country, bringing a couple big storm systems with it.

Today is a windy and very nice day with temps in the pleasant 60s. Those numbers come way back down behind the front for Wednesday and Thursday. Highs will struggle into the low 50s with frost and freezing temps during the mornings.

Hurricane Willa is coming ashore along the Pacific coast of Mexico today. This powerful storm is already throwing tropical clouds all the way toward our region…

The remnant low from Willa will cross Mexico and into Texas and then merge with a deepening trough across the eastern half of the country. Here are the European Ensembles tr

Another Pacific Hurricane, Sergio, also crossed the country to bring is rain a few weeks ago. To have two different Pacific tropical systems bring us rain is absolutely astounding!

That system will quickly throw rain our way as early as Thursday. The NAM only goes out through Friday morning, but you can clearly see a healthy system forming…

Snow lovers would be going crazy with that kind of setup in the winter, or even a month from now.

The Canadian shows something very similar then takes this storm up the east coast with additional systems diving in behind it…

Rounds of rain, gusty winds and chilly temps are on tap for the bluegrass state from late Thursday through early next week.

As I look at the pattern to close out October and begin November, we may very well see another deep trough digging into the country. This one may get help from a recurving typhoon in the western Pacific…

If that system does recurve as the models suggest, that energy would wind up heading toward the Aleutian Islands, forcing a blocky looking ridge ahead of it. This would send a very deep trough into the US and several of the medium range models are seeing the potential…

For the record, my analog years bring a severe storms threat and snow for the month of November.

I will update things later today, so check back. Make it a good one and take care.

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Time posted: 3:41 pm

Monday Afternoon Update

Good afternoon, everyone. It’s a gorgeous fall day in the bluegrass state with more nice weather through the middle of the week. This nice stuff comes with even chillier temps. By the end of the week, the pattern gets back to active with a DEEP trough being carved out across our region. That will spawn a couple of big storm systems.

The pattern was always going to throw a big trough our way for the end of October, but the remnants of Category 5 Pacific Hurricane Willa ups the ante on the trough.

Check out all energy rotating through the deep trough…

The Canadian continues to be the most phased with the surface system, but not as much as last night’s run. Notice how it still spits out a monster storm with another system developing as energy dives in behind it from the northwest…

The European Model takes this massive system up the east coast from late Thursday through early Saturday…

This also shows the next system quickly diving in from the northwest by late weekend into early next week…

The GFS continues to show its progressive bias with systems across the south and east, but it’s trying to get to where it needs to be. It also shows the system diving in behind the main storm…

For us, all of this means gusty winds, chilly temps and rounds of rain. There’s an outside chance for a flake with the second system moving in late weekend and early next week.

Enjoy the rest of your day and take care.

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Time posted: 2:51 am

Tracking A Potential Big Storm System

Good Monday to one and all. Since our pattern flipped on a dime almost 2 weeks ago, temperatures have been running much colder than normal. That pattern shows little sign of breaking as we head into another cold week. Things do get busy by the weekend as that major amplification of the jet stream takes place. You know… That thing I’ve been pointing toward for well over a week now. 😉

Before we get to the weekend setup, let’s talk about the chill that leads us into that. Temps stay solidly below normal the next few days, then another  cold shot moves in for the middle of the week…

For more than a week now, I’ve been trying to drive home the fact I was picking up on a healthy signal for a major amplification to the jet stream across the eastern half of the country. Well that setup is on the way and it’s going to develop a big storm system.

What’s upping the ante on this setup is the likelihood of another Pacific hurricane getting into the mix. Powerful Hurricane Willa will come ashore along the Mexico border on Tuesday, then rapidly head toward Texas…

cone graphic

That energy will then merge with additional energy diving in from the northwest.  How much phasing and the timing of these phases remains to be seen, but some wild weather is on the table for the eastern part of the country. The Canadian has the wildest solution at the moment. Watch this fully phased upper level system on the current run…

That produces a MONSTER winter storm…

Though it does keep the winter weather mainly north and east of us… Wow.

The European Model isn’t quite as extreme, but it’s close. It shows the eastern winter storm, but isn’t as phased as the Canadian…

Taken verbatim, both the Canadian and European Models are show a crushing early seasons snowstorm from the Appalachian mountains to our east into the northeastern states.

As far as the GFS is concerned, the model bias is to ALWAYS be too far south and east with cold season storms. That’s what’s happening with the latest run, but if you correct it west, you get something similar to the Euro and Canadian…

For Kentucky, this setup likely produces rain, wind and cold. Can we get a little something more out of that setup? Perhaps. It’s all about the phasing.

I will have an update or two coming later today, so check back.

Have a great Monday and take care.

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Time posted: 1:38 am

Mr. Freeze Pays A Visit

Good Sunday, everyone. Our old friend Mr. Freeze is back in the bluegrass state for the next couple of mornings. Many areas have already experienced a light freeze, but this one will pretty much finish off the growing season. As we look ahead, a very active pattern is evolving for the final week of October.

Our Sunday is starting with a freeze in many areas of Kentucky. The rest of the day looks really good, but cold. Highs will only be in the upper 40s to low 50s with almost full sun. Lows by Monday morning are back into the upper 20s and low 30s for many, bringing another freeze.

The first half of the week ahead looks really, really good! Frosty cold mornings will be followed by cool and dry afternoons. All of this as the fall colors begin to finally take off.

The setup for the final week of October is one  that will feature a major amplification in our jet stream.

This allows for big storm systems to develop, with potential impacts from each system really hard to determine from a week or so out.

The latest seasonal run of the European Model has a similar winter look as some of the other seasonal runs I’ve been sharing with you over the past few weeks.

We are looking at the average 500mb monthly anomalies on the maps below and they show a clear deep trough in the east and ridge in the west…

November has a weak trough developing in the east…

December goes bonkers with the trough…

That would certainly make for a very cold and, likely, snowy run up to Christmas.

The trough isn’t as deep in January, but it’s still there…

It snaps back in a big way for February…

And it continues into March…

If it pans out, that would certainly be one heck of a winter for much of the country!

I will be talking more about winter in the week ahead, including showing some of the driving forces I’m finding.

Have a great Sunday and take care.

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