Daily Archives: October 7, 2018

Time posted: 2:28 pm

Sunday Afternoon Update

Good afternoon, folks. I promised to drop by for another update and I’m a man of my weather word. 🙂 All eyes continue to be focused on a big change for the week ahead. It’s one that can bring tropical rains back into the bluegrass state and will definitely bring a much chillier weather pattern.

Michael is forming in the southern Gulf of Mexico and may become a weak hurricane on the way to the central Gulf Coast. The NHC forecast track seems to be buying way too much into the outlier European Model…

cone graphic

Let’s keep in mind how bad the European Model has been with tropical systems this season. It continues to suffer from severe convective feedback, which then alters the movement of the storm.

The GFS is back west, throwing tropical moisture into the cold front as it crosses the state. While the track of the center is to our east, look at all the rain it still throws into central and eastern Kentucky…

The Canadian Model continues to be farther west…

Following all that up is chilly air that turns cold. Check out how the pattern flips, allowing all that cold to finally flood into the east…

I leave you with radars to track today’s scattered storms going up…

Enjoy the rest of your day and take care.

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Time posted: 2:14 am

Tropical Rains and A Fall Cold Front Ahead

Good Sunday, everyone. The setup for the week ahead continues to look pretty wild as a tropical system meets up with a fall cold front. Those two will work in tandem to bring another big rain maker to the bluegrass state, with a serious fall chill to follow.

Let’s begin with the latest on our tropical system that will become Michael…

cone graphic

This is likely to become a Tropical Storm later today and has a chance at becoming a low-end hurricane before heading toward the central Gulf Coast late Tuesday and early Wednesday.

From there, a fall cold front plowing in from the west is likely to siphon up tropical moisture well ahead of this system, leading to heavy rains. The exact inland track of this system remains to be seen, but I’m sticking with my map I put together on Friday…

That’s similar to the track of Opal from October of 1995, but it should never approach the intensity of Opal. It’s a track that would bring heavy rains to our region, making this the 4th tropical system of the season to do so. Pretty crazy, eh?

The operational models continue to pick up on this scenario. The first model to show this was the Canadian and it keeps going with it…

The new version of the GFS was the next to lock in…

The soon to be outdated GFS waffles back and forth between Kentucky and the Carolinas…

The latest track forecasts from the hurricane models continue to bend west from their previous runs…

All things considered, we will need to be on guard for another heavy rain event Wednesday and Thursday. Given how amazingly wet the ground is, high water may once again become a problem.

MUCH cooler air comes in behind the rain with temps going below normal Thursday and Friday. Another system moves in with chilly showers Saturday. An extended run of highs in the 50s may be on tap, with the chance for frost or freezing temps.

I will have another update coming your way later today.

In terms of today’s weather, scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to flare up. These storms can unleash some local cloudbursts, so be on guard for that.

I leave you with your tracking tools…

Enjoy your Sunday and take care.

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