Good Sunday to one and all. We continue to be in a mainly warm and windy pattern for the next several days, butĀ a cold front crashes the summer party later today. It’s provides us with a brief break from the warm weather that returns for early November. After that, things continue to evolve toward a possible earlier than normal start to winter, and the models are picking up on that.

It’s a fairly calm early day, but I have a blowout post ready for you guys.

A weak cold front drops in later this afternoon into the evening with a broken band of showers and thunderstorms. The best chance is across central and eastern Kentucky, where winds will be very gusty…

This continues to set the stage for some slightly cooler air for Halloween. Temps may not get out of the 60s for some areas for afternoon highs. The hi-res NAM even shows upper 50s in the far north and northeast…

nam

The warm air surges back in for Tuesday and Wednesday with upper 70s to low 80s. Record highs may fall.

A potent little cold front swings in here on Thursday with scattered showers, gusty winds and much cooler temperatures…

gfs

The European Model continues to keep a some energy across our region, with showers into early Friday…

euro

Either solution will keep temps in the “near normal” category.

The numbers will bounce back up some next weekend into early the following week. That’s the second week of November, and is the week I’ve been pointing to as seeing the first shot of change. The models are now seeing this. Here’s the European for Election Day…

euro-2

That’s as far out as the model goes, but you can clearly see the cold air diving in here.

The GFS goes out a little farther and here’s what it shows for late Election Day into the following day…

gfs

Check out what the model shows by the weekend of November 12…

gfs-2

Here’s the precipitation type for those two systems…

gfs

And the snowfall map from that same run…

gfs-snow

As always, we take the specifics of those models with a grain of salt. These runs may be rushing things just a little bit, but it’s the trend to watch.

Let’s review how we have set the stage for all this poential: I first gave you guys a heads up back in the summer that some of my analogs had a very fast start to winter. The past few weeks, we started seeing the indicies showing blocking trying to start up. Then the weekly modelĀ forecasts started seeing this. The ensembles followed suit, and now the operational models are seeing it at times.

That “progression” is why my confidence level is up there. Of course, if mother nature doesn’t deliver the goods, getting the progression right doesn’t really matter.

Again, I think the above models are rushing things just a little bit, but have the “theme” of the mid to late month pattern I expect to set up.

Make it a great day and take care.