Good Wednesday, everyone. We have an arctic front ready to blast the bluegrass state tonight and Thursday, and this looks to unleash a pretty stout winter pattern around here. The system coming behind this for the weekend continues to take on a colder look, leading to an increased threat for winter weather.
I’ll start with a quick recap of the arctic front moving in tonight…
- There will be a few flurries behind this front late tonight and early Thursday.
- Temps drop Thursday as the cold air crashes in from the northwest.
- Northwesterly winds will bring clouds and some flurries in here into Friday.
- Highs by Friday stay in the 20s with lows Friday and Saturday mornings deep into the teens.
- Wind chills will be a big player and could reach single digits during the morning hours. Ouch.
The trend on the weekend system is for a flatter and colder solution on most of the models. We have talked about this being the likely scenario, and the models are going back toward what they had several days ago. Remember me talking about how they sometimes lose things in the 4-7 window, then bring them back under 4 days? That looks to be happening again.
The GFS has a messy setup with snow, rain and a mix from Saturday night through Monday morning…
The snow map with the GFS continues to edge southward…
The Canadian continues to be weaker and colder…
The snow map from that particular run…
The European Model continues to be too strong with this system, but is trending weaker and colder. The model shows a lot of Ohio Valley accumulation, but can overdo that if there’s a mix.
Don’t get too attached to any snowfall map from this far out. All I can say is, we have an increasing chance for winter weather this weekend and it could put some snow on the ground for some areas of Kentucky. If I can get more specific later today, I will. Since when am I a winter weather wimp? 🙂
In about a week from now, a massive arctic outbreak may engulf the country. It could be introduced by some snow…
Check out back to back morning temps behind that front on the European Model…
The GFS sees the brutal cold, too…
It also sees another massive shot coming a few days after that…
With all these massive arctic shots showing up, one could assume some decent snows would fall across much of the country and into our region. The Individual runs of the GFS Ensembles say you would be correct. 21 different model runs go into making up the Ensembles run. It then averages those out for one forecast. The folks at WeatherBell have given us a look at what each of the 21 runs shows individually. Check out the individual totals over the next 2 weeks…
It’s awesome to see this December pattern go toward what we have been talking about for the past few months. Now, let’s see what all it can actually deliver.
I will have another update later today. Make it a good one and take care.
Let the fun begin!
Too late, I’m excited about our 1st snowfall!!! I’ll be snow dancing for the rest of ye week! #boogieshoes. Merry Christmas everyone!
#wkytwxwatcher
Not to bust anyone’s bubble… But why am I seeing this December or this winter as a very weak winter all together? Every time a snow system gets near us, it falls apart.
No bubble busted here. Any snow we get in December is bonus snow. Winter generally doesn’t get cranking until mid Jan into Feb in our neck of the woods. And it is not just the winter that storms lose there punch as the move into the Ohio Valley. I have seen many storms durning the spring and summer that do the same. Besides that THIS Winter hasn’t even started yet and with setup that I am seeing for the rest of December we might start worrying about possible Ice.
It’s December! Any fluff before January is “icing on the cake.” This region’s best snow chances are usually late Jan/early Feb. If we get an inch this weekend, Rodger will be happy. Of course, hoping for more but Rodger LOVES to see first flakes of the season! Rodger in Dodger
The weekend storm is starting to look better, imo.
I don’t start getting discouraged unil February when nothing has happened and the pattern remains unfavorable moving forward.
Besides, areas within KY usually see don’t see the first accumulating snowfall until late December/early January with the only exception being the high elevations in eastern areas, climatalogically speaking.
Good post, Chris. I’m with Bjenks. December snow = bonus snow.
Doesn’t look like any snow here in western,ky unless it pushes little further south.
12z gfs continues to go colder more of a snow mixing with rain at times but if you go by the 12z gfs run more of a snow, snow mix.
Sunday is really starting to look good for snow lovers, according to the noon runs of the models! Waiting for Chris to post an afternoon update.
Does anyone know how it looks on the Euro?
Euro is warmer than the rest of the models. The NAM can’t quite yet go out that far however on the 84hr of the NAM it did show some sleet in the very beginning stages over Arkansas.
Interesting. http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ggem&p=sn10_acc&rh=2016120712&fh=132&r=us_ov&dpdt= If only….
That map would be a dream come true.
Especially after what current forecasts say. Its pretty to look at though.
Too good to be true, but I do enjoy the spirit.
Still looking like rain in my for weekend possibility of some sleet
Location location location
Apparently, the Euro develops a big storm but it goes well north of our neck of the woods! Other models more modest precip but much colder. Mr Bailey will figure it all out for us! Rodger in Dodger
Why is some people so negative, it’s not like we never get snow here in ky. Snow does exist here in ky at times.
Sometimes more than we can handle!!!!
We don’t get as much as a lot of the country but certainly more than the deep south and coastal west!
Plus as a winter weather lover, it makes it more interesting to get snow forecasts in KY, esprcially the biggies!
If we had several large snows on average every season plus the ankle biters inbetween, I doubt there would be as much excitement on here during the main winter months except for more complaining about wanting it to stop!!!
I think we gonna have a down right real wintry winter with lots of the white fluffy stuff, some of the dreaded ice stuff and probably even some cold rain thrown in.
Don’t leave us hanging, CB. We need another update.
Looks like it is going to be a hanging afternoon!
Let it snow, let it snow, let it snow…. (sing with me now)
I love how The Weather Channel and other major meteorological sites are slowly changing the December warmer than average forecast to either average or colder than average once we are already in the month. It was more than evident that blocking was taking place back in November but these sites want to fixate on one weather factor such as the weak la Nino…this is the reason why so few people trust weather forecasting…dumbing it down to fit one factor creates the weather forecast produces near 0 accuracy. If we had a lot more meteorologists like CB, I think more people would learn to appreciate forecasts, even if they have little interest in weather!