Good Sunday, friends and neighbors. We have a quick hitting system rolling into the region later today into Monday. This begins what looks to be another fun filled week of weather, complete with arctic and a messy winter system by the end of the week.
Let’s roll up our sleeves and get after it.
The day starts cold with some flakes flying in the north.
Later today, precipitation increases from west to east and really kicks in this evening into tonight. The low levels are very dry so, even with temps going well above freezing, the initial surge of precipitation can be in the form of sleet. That would quickly change to rain as the temperature and dewpoint meet in the middle.
Rainy weather will be with us into Monday with chilly temps dropping as the day wears on.
This is when we await the arrival of another big arctic front. We have had this one on the blog for a long, long time now. A fast moving band of light snow may introduce this arctic air at some point late Tuesday or Wednesday.
The air behind this is icebox stuff for much of the country. The Canadian model lows…
Look who is back to showing this arctic outbreak, our old friend the GFS…
Check out the forecast highs for Thursday…
And now you see why I didn’t post the warmer runs of the GFS from the past few days… they didn’t match the pattern or the other models.
This brings us to the late week potential winter weather system. This is going to be one interesting system. We will have arctic air in place with a deep and expansive snowpack just to our north. It is my experience that the models don’t see that very well until a few days out. Would that be enough to force a colder and father south solution of such a system.
The overnight European Model didn’t think so…
Taken verbatim, the European Model shows snow and ice to start, then a change to rain and then back to some snow and ice as another arctic air mass pushes in.
The Canadian Model appears to be sensing the Arctic cold and snowpack because it went a little south and colder…
The Canadian also has another arctic blast following that system. Check out the cool animation of the cold temperature anomalies over a long period ahead of us…
I will have another update or two later today. Things are busy, but I always drop by for at least one more update. 🙂
Have a great Sunday and take care.
Remember the Who song,”. We do not get fooled again.”
I wouldn’t doubt the European this far out. Even if future runs ‘tame’ the upcoming strength of that storm system a little bit, this may become a very talked-about system…a lot of wind energy with this thing, temperatures may surge ahead of it thanks to tapping into Gulf moisture, blizzard conditions in Minnesota, Wisconsin, crashing temperatures behind the front. Another thing not in our favor are the teleconnections…-PNA, +NAO, the trough west will steer winds southwest (a warmer wind, relatively speaking) for us ahead of the front. Don’t worry, in a few days, the model runs will cruelly cry April Fools and this system will be like to us…huh? What major storm system?
That’s usually what happens but you never know.
The teleconnections and the dreaded SE ridge will really hurt our snow/cold chances leading up to XMAS. I do see ice in our future though. If the current system can put down a nice snow pack north of us then the next system may have trouble shooting to the lakes. I also noticed the GFS ensembles have really backed off the heavy snow totals for anyone south of the Ohio river. Looks to be a typical KY winter.
Watch out if Ice is part of CB’s word cloud for discussion this week.
Yep! Might even be back to back ice events.
Looks very Interesting Chris and busy.
Early winter fun and games. Rodger’s hoping for some white fluff! Rodger in Dodger
Temps are absolutely overachieving today the good ole SW flow in full affect.
Pretty typical for our Winter weather. Almost every storm pushes warm air in and 90% of the precip. falls as rain. Then we get the dreaded northwest/backside flurries, which in my area generates no accumulation. On the plus side we did receive one real nice storm last year and two good ones the year before. Hopefully we can something for Christmas.
Yep, but a lot of us had three really HUGE exception in the past two years. Even CB said those were likely once in a lifetime events- having three in the span of a year.
Just heard Joe bastardi from weatherbell say signals pointing to warm weather in east after the 6-10 day..blah..that probably spells another snow-less winter for me here in east tn…