Good Wednesday, everyone. We have a big arctic front ready to slam into the region later today. This will introduce the coldest air of the season to our part of the world. It will also carry us into the start of a wicked wild weather weekend that may feature everything from thunderstorms to snow and ice.
Winds will be very gusty as the arctic front moves in here this evening. Those gusty winds will carry us into Thursday as temps absolutely tank. Readings by Thursday morning drop into the high single digits in the north, to 10-15 for the rest of the area. Highs only recover into the upper teens to low 20s.
Wind chills on Thursday are ugly…
That’s some wicked cold stuff considering we don’t have snow on the ground. Keep in mind, areas just to our north have a deep snow pack in place and that’s going to throw the models for a loop over the next few weeks. The models will consistently underplay the cold coming from the north where that snow is.
Friday is a frigid day with 10-15 Friday morning. It’s likely not as cold because clouds look to scoot in quicker than I originally thought. Those clouds will try to spit out a wintry mix by Friday evening as moisture increases from the southwest…
With a frozen ground, we have to be on guard for icy spots developing as the precipitation moves in, especially in the north.
Warmer air then winds the battle giving us rain and some thunder by Saturday. Temps may hit 60 where you live.
Those numbers come crashing down Saturday night into early Sunday as arctic air slams back in. That should set the stage for a period of sleet, freezing rain and some snow. Here’s the GFS…
Here’s how much freezing rain and sleet that run of the GFS is spitting out…
The Canadian model shows the mix to thunder to mix/snow scenario very well…
Given such a dramatic temperature drop with rain changing to a period of wintry precipitation, a quick ice up is possible. Temps on Sunday are showing up very cold on the European. It suggests we hang in the teens and low 20s across central and western Kentucky all day. It then shows Monday morning temps back into the 10-15 degree range.
Another system is going to try and follow that up a few days later, with another one possible right after that…
Quarter inch of ice wouldn’t be that bad. Was thinking it would be more.
Yeah, a few days ago some of the models were predicting upwards of an inch and a half of sleet/ice. A quarter inch is just a nuisance by comparison.
All this cold air with nothing to show for it!
FRUSTRATING
It happens. Life goes on.
I’m happy you’re concerned about my welfare, but do not worry I am not going to put a snowball to my head. LOL
I welcome your sound advice.
In my 12 years back in KY I have learned not to even think snow in December. Now, January and February – that’s different. That keeps my disappointment down as I am a snow lover.
Again notice the weather channel has painted the snow line down further south into Kentucky. I live in western,ky and there saying possible1-3 inches here my neck of woods. Have a good day!!!
Weather channel = Dial it in channel 😉 The take a model at face value and do no interpretation or composite (average) of the models. TWC is ran by marketing people and not mets.
I could live with snow, but not extreme cold and ice.. Lets hope for a mild winter with no sub zero temps…I know its alot to ask considering the last 3 years
I’m with you on that.
Last night on WKYT Chris said Friday 25, Sat 60, Sun back to 25. I don’t recall that big a swing in temps ever here in Ky. It’s amazing how far out of her way Mother Nature will go to limit Central Ky’s snow chances.
Thanks for all you do CB! Studying weather with my students here at a Louisville middle school, and we read the blog daily. We discuss the forecast maps and maps showing temperature and precipitation. They are looking forward to Christmas break and the possibility of seeing some snow soon!
Front end slopfest..Hopefully we see all rain or snow..Even a little ice is to much ice..
Drive-by precipitation events. Just as long as the ice forgets to drive by, no problem on missing big snow. Positive spin 🙂
I know 1/4 of the people on the blog know exactly how this storm pans out in the end. Past trends forecast Heavy rain to flurries and frozen puddles. We tore down the FENCE and the DOME came crashing down a few years ago. Now it is time for the cold to finally catch the precipitation way before it ends. Hopefully in the form of all snow.
I prefer the cold to be locked in place as the storm gets here. However that would be too much like right, just can’t have that with Kentucky weather in the winter. Chasing what’s little left backside precipitation as the cold is moving in gets rather old, boring, and predictable. Sad we have to wait and see if the cold air can catch up with backside precipitation that won’t amount to squat. All the real solid moisture the time the cold gets here is way off to the east.
This could be the last TREND to break. How long did it take to tear down the FENCE and crash the Dome. LOL….I do like the fact that there is even a chance at wintery precip. in December. Can’t complain about that.
The best chance of snow to get here in ky when the storm is coming out of south were the cold is already in place. Not the ones that goes west to east like the ones that happening now.
Love me an Apps runner.
Thanks Chris. It is looking like a very cold weekend. That will certainly get folks thinking about Christmas and snuggling next to the fireplace. (Of course, if you are like us, that fireplace will be one of those on tv that burns while Christmas music plays.) 😉 I am not happy about the thought of ice, even for a short while. But we are not in charge of the weather (and that’s probably a good thing as well!) Anyway Happy Hump Day. Stay warm everyone! Chris, we are all looking forward to the next frigid update.