Good afternoon, folks. Arctic air is poised to blast into the bluegrass state tonight, bringing the coldest air of the season to date. From there, the forecast for the weekend continues to get a little wild with temperatures and precipitation types for everyone.
The arctic cold arrives tonight and the short range, higher resolution models are coming in colder than the typical models we look at. The RAP temperature forecast for Thursday morning…
Man, that’s some cold stuff. This front may have some flakes along it this evening…
That cold remains into Friday as we await the arrive of the next system. Overrunning moisture returns by Friday evening and could be in the form of a mix. The NAM continues to see this…
That pushes to the north as warmer air surges in for Saturday. Temps can make a run at 60 for many areas on a gusty southwesterly wind. Showers and some thunderstorms will be possible as an arctic front moves in here. That front arrives Saturday night with a switch to a wintry mix of sleet, freezing rain and snow behind it…
Does that only last for an hour or two, or a little longer? Obviously the longer it goes, the more problems we would see. Temps drop through the 20s during the day with some teens in the north and west.
Temperatures by Monday morning will be frigid…
Geez, I wonder where the snowpack is? 😉
I will shoot you another update later today. Make it a good one and take care.
That’s sounds about right and hour maybe two and that will be that.
yep! If that…
Yep, I know that will happen, and I waste my silly time getting on the blog to read what will happen.. All my time worried about it (wanting it to snow) and it will freeze rain, maybe sleet for 1 or 2 hours!!!!!
Come on Old Man Winter….cold, then warm, then cold….no snow. Yawn…Wake up old man!!
Thanks for the update!
Well, if we do have the ice event, then CB’s winter forecast is complete as that was his bold prediction.
Once again, tune out the hype and keep your expectations low for this winter as you’ll be much happier in the long run; not Hamlin smoking Cuban cigars while driving an ambulance speeding through traffic happy, but decently happy.
If it was going to ICE bad, then CB would be forecasting it to happen this far out, he is good at that. But he isn’t really saying that much. But yes, I need to put up the computer and set my expectations low!
CB is not hyping.
Thanks Chris. Gripers in December, be gone! It’s early guys. We rarely if ever get good snows this early.
yeah, first day of winter hasn’t arrive yet and people act like it never snow here in ky.
Not griping I call it venting we’re expressing our displeasure and jealousy for the folks up north that get the good winter weather before we do. There is no harm in that nobody is bashing CB. I would like to take this opportunity and bash the 2 week GFS forecast snow model.
Correct, two week models equals laughter.
I really hate those teases but CB puts these on the blog to show the potential only!
The good news is no big ice threat 🙂
So far………….
Right, setup is ripe for a decent snow
True, but the potential is so great , and then when the moisture gets here we go from 25 to 60 back to 25. That’s just a smack in the face of snow lovers.
Won’t Saturday’s warmth mute a lot of the snow cover north of us? Rodger doesn’t expect much Sunday except cold and a BRIEF period of precip. Hoping there’s something more significant next week. Rodger in Dodger
There are some hints for snow around Christmas, I would take that, even if its just a inch or 2. Stay positive folks our time is coming 🙂
I am with you on that one. I am sensing another pattern here dry cold for a day or two then a warmup with rain. Frustrating for snow lovers.
Frustrating indeed but at least the pattern is no longer completely boring with 100 days of sunshine….people in California can keep boring and let us weather lovers have at least something to track, even if it’s cold rain!!!
That’s was our pattern for almost seventeen year, until two winters ago we got the two big snows in a week and earlier this year. Three record snows in less than one year. Wow.
Maybe back to our previous normal now, with three giant “anomalies” mentioned above.
Funny how those big snows are quickly “forgotten” when we miss out on snows the next winter and beyond. There’s just so many factors in the atmosphere that must come together for a big snow in our part of the world. Enjoy them when it happens. Rodger in Dodger
GFS back on the ice train..
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016121418/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_15.png