Good afternoon, everyone. Bitterly cold temperatures continue to have an icy grip on the Commonwealth of Kentucky. Lows this morning hit below zero in a few spots, with many areas checking in with low single digits. Similar numbers will show up out there by Sunday morning.

The winds are really adding to the bitter cold, with wind chills going well below zero at times.

Winds go northwesterly for a time tonight and this can cause a few snow flurries to develop. The far southeast may pick up on some light accumulations to follow up on another fresh snowfall last night.

Clouds increase Sunday and I can’t rule out a period of light flakes late in the day or early Monday. This can happen as milder air begins to push in here. That’s ahead of a wet weather maker moving in for Tuesday and early Wednesday.

This looks to be the start of a very active, and potentially wild pattern. It’s one that can put our region in the dividing line between arctic cold to the north and spring temps to the south. Each of those temp patterns can oscillate back and forth across Kentucky.

The late week setup is an intriguing one from a couple of aspects. It can bring thunderstorms and torrential rains before the potential for ice and snow.

I actually like what the GFS is doing with this by late Thursday and Friday…

gfsWatch the change from storms to winter in just a few hours…

gfs-2

That could very well feature a 40+ temperature swing along that boundary.

Often when I see situations like this, the heavy rain threat immediately pops into my mind. Check out the GFS rain totals over the next week or so…

gfs-rain-2

The Canadian Model just gave the GFS a “like”…

canadian

The GFS then brings that boundary back into Kentucky early the following week and does the same thing all over again. The two week rain totals from that run of the GFS…

gfs-rain

You know something, it’s been a long time since we’ve had a cold season river flood event around here.

That said, let me be clear on something with this pattern. The amount of cold air could easily overwhelm this setup and bring many more winter weather events over the next two weeks. But, this is a major fight brewing between bitterly cold temps and spring temps in the southeast. The end result in such an extreme battle is usually extreme weather. Given the current look of the pattern, everything from severe thunderstorms and flooding to bitter cold and blizzards are on the table going forward.

I’m also looking at February and thinking it’s not going to turn out like I thought initially. It could very well feature a lot more winter weather. That doesn’t maker your friendly weatherdude too happy, because I always go toward spring mode by then. 🙂

I will see you guys again late tonight. Stay warm and take care.