Good afternoon, everyone. Strong to severe thunderstorms that rumbled across the state this morning are the opening act of a potential significant severe weather outbreak. Rounds of severe thunderstorms and possible tornadoes will sweep across the state tonight into Wednesday.
The tornado risk continues to increase this evening into tonight. There’s the potential for strong tornadoes to develop across the western half of the state, and along the Ohio River from Covington to Paducah. Here’s my current thinking on the tornado risk…
This matches up with the SPC’s new Moderate risk across some of these same areas…
In addition to the tornado threat, damaging winds and large hail will also be significant players. The entire threat area will then focus on central and eastern Kentucky late tonight into Wednesday. Here’s the latest outlook from the SPC…
Flash flooding is also a major concern during this time. Much of the state is now under a Flash Flood Watch through Wednesday.
Our interactive radar is the best tool you will find to track severe weather. You can zoom in on any storm, get the latest warnings, current conditions and watch live streams from storm chasers across the land…
The rest of your tracking toys are below…
Today’s risk area
I will try to update things later today. Keep track of the latest from my @kentuckyweather twitter feed and with me on WKYT-TV.
Have a great day and take care.
Flash Flood Watch for Jackson, County Ohio through tomorrow.
#BringIt
Thanks Chris. I said yesterday you were going to have a busy couple of days, and it looks like I was correct. I know you hear thank you a lot, but I often think you don’t realize just how thankful we are to have a weather team like the one at KYT and especially you and this blog. My weather radio needs to be updated I think, since it is nearly 20 years old, but when it comes down to it, I depend on you and WKYT. Hope everyone has a safe and pleasant afternoon. Keep your eyes and ears on the weather! And GO CATS!!!
Louisville, Owensboro, Paducah good luck were gonna need it. Everything I have read spells trouble, tennis to baseball size hail and tornadoes of EF2 and greater are a real possibility. Latest HRRR model paints a scary pic with the individual supercells developing. NWS states this is a similar event of the tornado outbreak of January 2012.
Lots of energy. Hopefully it loses some of it to reduce risk.
This is from the NWS out of Louisville, http://t.co/IC1ong5p2L
Not looking forward to tonight.
I am paying close attention to all the data too as I am in Florence this week and not down in SE KY where nothing ever happens!
Weather can get a whole lot nastier up this way away from the mountains…still exciting to track though:)
Of course the mountains have more than their share of flash flooding…
IIRC, on March 2 2012 there were a couple of impressive hook echoes over Bell County KY but there apparently were no touchdowns. Rugged terrain can hinder tornado genesis somewhat by among other things lowering dew points near the ground (tornadoes among other things need high dew points near ground level).
Downtown Middlesboro KY was still struck by an F3 tornado in 1988. That twister even traversed the ridge on the eastern side of Middlesboro. Heck, the West Liberty twister traveled nearly 90 miles over rough terrain, the Salyersville tornado covered nearly 50 miles.
At the moment, it looks like some explosive supercell action is beginning south of ST Louis.
Yeah, I was very little when the Middleboro tornado hit but have reviewed historical data and damage pics from that tornado; my uncle was actually in the mall there when it hit.
In Harlan, several EF0s have occurred over the years with damage to a few homes. The terrain is so rugged in Harlan Co that even the strong storms that have already weakened in Bell Co. Continue to weaken before reaching me 99% of the time…very uneventful county to live in for severe storms but, like you have already mentioned, the flood threat (mostly flash flood) is a different story!
This time in 2012 brought some bad storms to Harlan with supercell action.
Also, I was thinking about how similar the 2012 winter was compared to this year with a severe weather outbreak coming together at the same time of year to boot!
Thanks Chris for all you do!
Why are they dating the headers wrong? Jan 31?http://www.swiftwx.com/warnings/bulletins.aspx?bulletinid=0004-KLSX-010130
Does anybody know how bad the weather is going to be once it reaches NE KY? Lewis and Mason Counties to be exact. Thanks to anyone who could give me some kind of idea.