Good afternoon, folks. It’s a busy pattern that’s slowly taking on much more of a winter look here in the first full week of March. The system this weekend continues to show itself as a potential winter weather maker on the latest forecast models.
Before we get to that, let’s talk about the thunderstorms coming tonight and early Tuesday. This is a severe weather maker across the Mississippi Valley, and could impact the far western part of the state…
Today’s risk area
For the rest of the region, showers will be common today with that line of showers and storms racing in early Tuesday. It should be in weakened form by then. Here’s regional radar…
A system on Friday brings gusty showers in here and unleashes some colder air behind it. We’re going to see one heck of a temperature gradient taking shape across the country with a storm developing along this. The models continue to take this storm farther south, giving us more of a winter threat this weekend.
The latest GFS is a hefty snow event from the Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic…
Last night’s European Model is very similar..
The European was the first to spot this potential several days ago, not the other models are jumping on it.
That same run of the Euro does this early next week…
I’ve talked and talked about how our warm pattern would not go straight into true spring without winter having one last shot. That appears to be in the making over the next week or two. 🙁
I will update things this evening. Take care.
I am liking the chances of winter weather you’re talking about! Bring on a smackdown snow!
Still not buying it… I think Spring is gonna win.
Unless of course you follow the farmers almanac. They say snow the last two weeks of march as well.
Still on board the Spring train though.
Bring on spring! #teamspring
The Farmers Almanac was wrong for California this time. I don’t buy their gibberish.
WVa and VA will get the snow. We’ll get the rain. Just a guess. I WANT a big snow!!!!!
If WV does get any of that snow, it won’t be in the Huntington/Charleston area. It will be in the Beckley to Elkins zone. Where it always is. We might see some dreaded backside flurries though.
Thanks Chris. One question though…wouldn’t ground be too warm for much? Anyway, guess we will see. Have a good rest of your Monday everyone.
The “just a dusting” of 1998 was warm the week before and the snow was so heavy and unrenting it quickly accumlated. Of course it melted several days later, but still 18″ for north Richmond on ground over two days.
unrelenting
I would rather prefer to name it a spring snow fall.
It could work to our advantage by fooling some early rising insects that hibernate in the ground.
What does the latest euro run look like?
I overseeded my lawn yesterday, so you’re welcome snowlovers.
LOL
Truly a cruel winter for the models to pick up on a big heavy snow just before spring. The last time happened was over twenty years ago, but was a blizzard with a lot more cold air to support the flow as something other than mainly cold rain.
I think warm air wins out for Kentucky. Why bet against it now? It has an all winter streak going for it.
I agree…unlike the 93 blizzard, I don’t foresee enough cold air to support a real deal snow, but a quick hitting, damaging wet snow that melts really fast is not 100% off the table…not too interested as even two weeks ago, the awful GFS snowfall ensembles showed several inches which of course has not panned out. I think we would be closing in on 100 inches statewide if those terrible snowfall maps were even 50% accurate LOL:)
Ummm, yeah… At this point in the game, the GFS, the NAM, the Canadian, the Japanese, and the Euro could all be showing a heavy hitter at 24 hours out and I STILL wouldn’t believe it until it was on the ground… but alas, I’d be willing to bet that the 18z or 00z will take it back north well into Indy/Ohio, such as we have seen the entire season.
If the 12z GFS model was actually correct the I-64 corridor would have a 12-16 inch snowfall.
My snow blower is getting excited again. But if its snows it will be that heavy wet snow. The worst kind.
Crazy that Memphis TN of all places has had more snow this season than many places in other parts of Tennessee and in Kentucky……courtesy of that early January upper level disturbance that overachieved over western TN.
But perhaps we’re seeing hints of a chance this imbalance could be erased, although as other have pointed out it’s still early and much can change. I have mixed feelings, as I’m a warm wx person and we’re so close to spring. At least any snow cover won’t last long in March. As a kid in Morristown TN, I experienced the incredible March 1993 blizzard, but afterwards all that huge amount of snow rapidly melted.
Let’s sit back and enjoy our TN warmth..Lol..And let them have that mess..I mowed my yard today cleaned the flowerbeds..So I choose grilling and warm days at this point..Let someone else have the March slush and salty roads..Yuck..lol
I want snow as much as anyone ,but if this snow chance goes away and we get rain or nothing …..this blog could be in for an epic meltdown in the comments section
I think a lot of snow fans might have already tuned out for the winter, due to the lack of snow action. Perhaps little harm little foul.
Now, if the models keep peeping and folks are aware, then if it fizzles later in the week there could be a meltdown. Warm air has won all winter around here, so would take a mega model consensus and CB threat mode to get many to bite.
I admit I didn’t expect there to be so many winter lovers on this and other similar weather blogs. Many (not all) of these winter lovers obviously have little desire to be in this blog the rest of the year. While I prefer being in warm wx all year round, I still enjoy tracking winter storms to a large degree. But spring severe weather to me is the most interesting time of the year. While I love the outdoors during the late summer to early fall months, they are the least interesting times from a weather dynamics point, other than hurricanes and derechos. Being a meteorologist in San Diego during the long sunny dry season would seemingly bring a bit of a challenge to forecast the same relatively dull weather dynamics ad nausea.
Wow, 18z GFS actually held serve.
I suspect we’ll see some variation until Wednesday.