Good afternoon, folks. It’s a busy pattern that’s slowly taking on much more of a winter look here in the first full week of March. The system this weekend continues to show itself as a potential winter weather maker on the latest forecast models.

Before we get to that, let’s talk about the thunderstorms coming tonight and early Tuesday. This is a severe weather maker across the Mississippi Valley, and could impact the far western part of the state…

Today’s risk area

Latest Day 1 convective outlook

For the rest of the region, showers will be common today with that line of showers and storms racing in early Tuesday. It should be in weakened form by then. Here’s regional radar…

A system on Friday brings gusty showers in here and unleashes some colder air behind it. We’re going to see one heck of a temperature gradient taking shape across the country with a storm developing along this. The models continue to take this storm farther south, giving us more of a winter threat this weekend.

The latest GFS is a hefty snow event from the Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic…

Last night’s European Model is very similar..

The European was the first to spot this potential several days ago, not the other models are jumping on it.

That same run of the Euro does this early next week…

I’ve talked and talked about how our warm pattern would not go straight into true spring without winter having one last shot. That appears to be in the making over the next week or two. 🙁

I will update things this evening. Take care.