Good Thursday, folks. Today’s weather is about two stages past awesome, so it really is hard to grasp the winter changes sweeping in here this weekend. It’s a pattern likely to bring snow to the state, with another snow maker a good bet early next week.
There is an increasing potential for winter weather to impact parts our region Saturday into early Sunday. We will COULD move into Winter Storm THREAT mode later today forย parts of the south. The main focus for accumulating snow will likely be across the southern half of the Commonwealth, with much lower/no chances in the north.
The forecast models continue to jump around a bit, but we should see them hone in on this system today. The NAM is farther south than earlier runs…
The snow map from that particular run…
The Canadian Model continues to grow stronger with this system…
Each run of the model shows a little more snow and has it inching a bit to the north. The latest Canadian Model snowfall forecast…
On the other side of the snow spectrum is the GFS. This model keeps getting weaker and a touch farther south with the snow…
A friendly reminder that the above maps are all snapshots of individual computer forecasts that will change with each model run. Those are NOT forecasts of mine.ย I will have a first call map out later today.
Snow or no snow where you live this weekend, it’s cold. Check out the numbers from the NAM…
The pattern into the first half of next week will feature additional shots of winter weather. There’s the chance to put some snow on the ground Monday night through Wednesday. Watch the action diving in on the GFS…
That’s a whole lotta ugly showing up for the Middle of March.
Lost in the snow shuffle is the amount of hard freezes we have over the next week and change. With everything basically in full bloom way too early, some serious damage will occur. Green thumbs are on full blown alert.
I’m ready for the 80 degree alert.
I was hoping to fertilize my lawn this weekend.
Only time will tell.
Huntington WV has now eliminated all snow from forecast for the next week. Friday misses to the North, Sunday misses to the South and Tuesday misses to the East. Typical
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/weatherhistorian/record-late-season-snowfalls-redux
I thought this was an intersting read with some historical late season snowfall records, especially back in the early 1800s with notable June snowfalls and July flurries in the NE.
I know March can deliver but since it is now considered late season for measurable snowfalls especially south of KY, I decided to dig for data. Although I have argued many times with people over the years pertaining to “May blizzards,” I did find a few May snows when researching but could not find anything greater than 5 inches for KY. I think many people get March and May mixed up as I have contended with people over tge years who have claim that KY has had a couple of feet of snow in May in our lifetime (some younger than 30 years old) but I think they are mixing up the 93 March blizzard date. Large April snows are also very rare too and no data that I have found shows one as large as the 1987 East KY clobberer with only a few other decent April snows in the past 100 plus years for KY!
It’s like a dinner date who is late to dinner…I don’t like it. Then again, I guess winter prefers a cold dinner.
CB, if you post a threat mode we will need to add an asterisk, since only for the very southern part of the state ๐ ๐
I forget about the weather computer models, they hardly come in agreement when you have a potential winter weather event in the forecast. Satellite loops will actually show you a more realistic picture. Today, the satellite loops shows a disturbance over southwest Texas moving and expanding northeast toward Oklahoma at the same time a disturbance is moving and expanding from the northern Rockies. These two systems will collide over southwest Missouri and form a storm that will impact all of Kentucky. With cold air dammed up aloft a major snowstorm is likely. Also, the cold weather will dam up through next week. Another snowstorm could occur next week. Have a nice day.
How does this play out with models showing a southern only storm?
BubbaG, it’s not a set stone what this storm track gonna be. So lets wait and see what the models says tonight or tomorrow.
Good point, might just be Tennessee ๐ ๐
True
Southern KY is the same as TN on the blog
From a news and market demographic standpoint. True stuff. Hence the asterisk if CB goes Threat Mode ๐
I have seen storms that look like a direct hit for my area two days or even 24 hours out, only to have the track change significantly despite what models showed.
06Z models weakening significantly
Southern track and a system behind it taken some of it’s mojo would do that.
Someone needs to take winter to the woodshed and give it an old fashion beat down..Winter be gone..
Since all of this winter has been unpredictable by doing unusual things, is the track or covertof this snowstorm going to be similar?
*coverage
12z nam says look out TN!!
Between this run (12z) of the NAM and the 0z run later this evening, the sweet spot of the NAM should reveal what we should expect.
Based on the forward speed and a need to moisten the atmosphere and trying to battle relatively warm ground, I would not expect to see what some of these snow maps are showing.
Needs to be more north for more snow with this set-up. That said, the mountain areas could get interesting.
Kentucky would get smacked if main track, but not to be.
Nashville NWS being cautious but not convinced yet…not even a Hazardous Weather Outlook yet for east TN
BTW, looks like Kentucky is back to being the winter weather median for snow. It goes north or south of most of the state.
Things can still change in many ways. It’s just Thursday. We went from winter storm warning one time, to an advisory, to a couple of inches. This was just within 12 hours of storm.
These events are almost always “now-casts” where no one really knows what happens until it starts and the radar takes shape. Weathers models are just not good with winter systems – too many variables. Rodger’s backyard was in the snow bullseye two days ago and figured that was a bad place to be. Sure enough, now the bullseye is south. There might not be any bullseye when all is said and done. Rodger in Dodger
12Z just took the sweet spot away from southern KY to the south and removed any accumulation from Richmond north. This thing is looking to end up in southern TN, northern GA and AL
Ohio Valley CANNOT buy a snow event this winter! Next week’s will go somewhere else too – count on it! Rodger in Dodger
Let’s hope we see some accumulating snow in the next 5 or 6 days. BOTS