Good Friday, folks. While we enjoy a period of toasty temps to start fall, I wanted to look a little deeper down the weather road. From a big change coming next week, to the upcoming fall and winter months, this update has you covered.
You guys ready? 🙂
Today features more of the same with temps in the muggy 80s and the chance for a stray shower or storm…
This pattern persists through the weekend into the first few days of next week. During this time, Hurricane Maria continues to barrel across the Caribbean, but the storm continues to look like a miss for the east coast…
A big time fall cold front arrives in here by later Wednesday and Thursday. This front will have a band of showers and storms along and ahead of it, and a big push of chilly air behind hit. The recent trend on the models is for a system to swing through the base of our trough, spawning low pressure and some chilly rains around here…
If that system is real, it may take away the frost threat, but keep those temps very chilly during the days…
I actually prefer the secondary system developing, because they can often be a precursor to the early winter pattern.
Speaking of winter. I’ve already been hard at work compiling data for the winter forecast that comes out in November. I’m toying with the idea of putting out a preliminary forecast in early October. What do you guys think of that? The more responses, the better the chance I do it. 😉
While I keep looking over the analogs and data, I’m also looking at some of the seasonal forecast models. While I don’t put a ton of stock in these models, they can offer some clues at where things are headed.
The CSA Model comes up with a forecast based purely on soil moisture. Here is the month by month breakdown from November through January…
That model would make for a very fun winter around here!
The CFS Model changes a gazillion times a week, and I’m really not a fan of the model data beyond one month. Still, the latest update had a cold November and December…
I promised you some winter talk and I delivered. Now, if you guys want that preliminary winter forecast in early October… You had better leave some comments telling me you do. 🙂 I have a magic number of comments in my head. If we get there, you will get that prelim winter outlook in a few weeks.
Make it a great Friday and take care.
The earlier the winter forecast, the better!!!
Never commented before but I read your blog nightly before bed…let’s see that early winter forecast!
Regarding the October preview, I give it a resounding YES!! I would especially like to hear Korea about your analog years and some info on external influences, like sea surface temperatures!
I meant to say “like to hear more about”, not Korea!!
Autocorrect
Yes yes yes!!!
Yes, please! Fingers crossed for a cold, snowy winter!
Realizing that the earlier the forecast, the less accurate. But a peak into the near future isn’t a bad thing if you realize that it may not be the gospel.
Do it, Chris.
Let’s have the early winter forecast, please and thank you!!
I don’t want a 1977-1978 type winter, but I sure would love to build a great big snowman more than once or twice;). Besides, my big red truck needs to use its 4-wheel drive. Bring on your thoughts⛄️❄️
Yes
Please give us the early winter forecast. I am not a huge fan of
winter, I prefer another winter like last year, very light. Of course, when I was a child I always wanted huge snows though!!
Yea I’d like to hear what might happen.
Give us that early winter forecast Chris!
Let it snow, let it snow, let it snow…Bring it!
Yes Chris we want it the can’t wait
A early October outlook for winter would be awesome!
would be great, thanks!
I vote “Yes” on the early winter forecast!
Talk of Winter is much appreciated during this heatwave. Not very excited about another 5 days of this but at last something to look forward to next week.
I love early winter predictions. I work in a school system, we are always looking out for those SNOW DAYS!!! They are pretty nice. I love your website as well. Keep up the good work, and thank you
Go for it!❄❄❄❄⛄
Do it
Yes please!!!
Bring on the preliminary.
Bring it CB.
The earlier the better! Please!!
Winter! Winter! Winter!
Bring it on!!!!!
Winter Forecast!
Absolutely! The winter forecast is a favorite of mine. I’m hoping for cold and snow.
Yes. Let’s look forward. We need a cold winter once and a while. Appreciate you!
Yes please!
On behalf of myself and everyone I give a rundown of your blog to, we definitely want an early winter forecast!
Oh we are excited we read.your blogs daily and can’t wait to hear your thoughts on winter
http://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=1432918813494606&id=400651840054647
Meanwhile in Tahoe City, Nevada.
Hamlin, does this post seem like a way to take everyone’s minds off the fact that the hype for Sept. went hugely sideways?
We’ve had July temps, dew points, humidity for sometime now here and it’s just an after thought ( a little toasty ). I looked back and couldn’t find any discussion of how this month was going to heat up tremendously until right before it started happening. When the forecast was cooperating, it was all “OMG GUYS CAN YOU BELIEVE THESE TEMPS!!!!”. Meanwhile, the AC is running on the first day of fall which is a really rare occurrence for me.
“The Voice of Reason” was already up this morning and posted something similar on his “stealth blog”. Well, not as stealthy as he thinks, obviously. I don’t enjoy him being right, it just feels icky.
Idiot Meck is never right. September was not hyped.
Still.gonna be below normal and I dont remember it ever being hyped…..
Air conditioner was on last Christmas !
Thanks
Go for it!
I’d like to see your winter forecast in October!!
Bring it on!!! I love snow!!
Winter talk Yes Yes Yes
Yes, we definitely want to hear your thoughts!!!!!
Please, Please, Please give your early winter forecast! I love winter!!!
Please on the forecast kind sir!!!!
Bring on the prelim winter outlook, CB!
Thanks for the work you do. And yes prelim forecast please!
I literally open this blog every single morning with the dreams that cold seasonal air is in the forecast. Bring on the winter forecast!!
Yes! My teacher friends and I were just saying we need a snow day already. Can’t wait hear your preliminary thoughts!
Let’s see it
Go for it.
Nah, Not interested in an early Winter forecast. Yes Im your friendly winter weather grinch looking to steal joy and wonder for all…
Yes! My teacher friends and I were just saying we need a snow day already. Can’t wait to hear your preliminary thoughts!
Yes please!
Yes please!
Absolutely, the earlier the better!
Yes please
Is that magic number, 1?
Do it!
The sooner the better
Does anyone have a handy valuation chart for transferring amounts of things like “comments” = “facebook likes” = “prayers” ? How are the value trends in any of these lately? Volatile or is it okay to have a diverse portfolio? Should I short on the “prayers” and put more into “likes”? Can I combine currencies into a financial instrument, say “commenting on prayers to get likes” ?
All too confusing, which is why I like blockchain based currencies.
I’d like to know how much wood we need to get cut and split and how soon we need to do it. Let’s hear those winter thoughts Chris.
Yes.
yes like to see that october prediction for our winter ahead
Early winter forecast..pretty please?
Go! Chris! Go!
Winter forecast please!!
October, with the option to update as needed, would be great!
The wooly worms are already telling!
Wooly worms are jet black means a hard winter ahead. Persimmon seed have a spoon in them, you will be shoveling snow.
Thanks
Are you saying that’s what you’re seeing or is that the folk lore?
Thanks Chris, The Autumn forecast, but a little early for the Winter. Here’s the Autumn and Winter one hundred years ago: http://www.weather.gov/lmk/december_1917_january_1918
Thanks
Bring it on!
I’m a school teacher – give me that early winter forecast! My sanity depends on it.
Hey Chris. Let’s go for it. Us weather geeks can’t wait!
Yes!! Please do 🙂
Ye
Yes. Do it. That is all
I look forward to the October prediction every year! Chris you do an amazing job on the KY Weather Blog! Keep up the good work. I love sharing the blog with my students at school.
Given how last winter panned out (I agreed with CB’s forecast FWIW), it will be interesting. Not seeing two years in a row with a big goose egg, but prior to the previous two big snow winters, we did have 16 years of wimpy snows for most areas. The big events were ice.
That’s the good news for last winter- we did not get any ice events, so the goose egg for snow is not so bad 🙂
It’s will be interesting to take a look. Another yes vote.
Can’t say I’ve ever seen 31 responses at 8:00 though.
Bring on the early outlook!
Oh, yeah, we definitely need to see that winter forecast early. Need to know how far we can take the camping season! 🙂
Chris, I anticipate your winter forecast every year–starting in July! Please deliver early!
Early Winter forecast please!!!
Yes please – bring on the early winter update!
Bring on that winter forecast!!!
Please bring on your early winter forecast Chris. Thank you for all of your hard work.
Thanks Chris! A preliminary Winter forecast would be awesome!
I’m curious, but timid, as models really seem to not have much knowledge of what is going on past a few days out!! Let us hear your thoughts, Chris!!
Would love to see a winter forecast after all it’s my favorite season
Yes sir bring it!!!
Please, I live for your Winter Forecast!! LOL
Checked in today just to see what you were thinking about things for fall and winter. Yes please throw out some early thoughts.!
I love love love to hear your winter comments. Bring on the winter talk
Early Forcast Yes!
Early forecast please!
Chris,
I agree with you regarding the seasonal models. I often look at the CPC models especially for the winter months and they are rarely accurate. Their 90 day models are the worst, sometimes they see an obvious trend so the 30 day models are ok from time to time. It’s really fascinating how you use analog years, Joe Bastardi does that well also, Weatherbellanalytics does great work as well. I really enjoy going over their long term outlooks. I look forward to your outlook in OCT!
We can all get to pickin’ our dueling meteorological banjos all the way down to Aintree with early winter forecasts from both Schroeder AND CB in our canoes! *tunes 5-string*
Your looking forward for a Winter Forecast from Schroeder??? Unbelievable smh ♂️
Obviously no… just facetious
I just want to hear CB’s! Nobody cares about Schroeder’s rhetoric that he pulls off of other blogs….
Keep it coming Ralph it’s funny LOL LOL !!!
I have the Autumn and Winter outlook already. Anyone want to here it ? We all know 1917-18 and 1977-78 Autumn and Winter, so what about 2017-18 ??????
Thanks
Thanks
Honest as well.
I have the forecast for Autumn and winter 2017-18 in detail, it’s five pages long. Want to here it ?
Really, I do have a forecast, but I would never post it here. I’am not going to type five pages !!!
Thanks
No!!!
Agreed
Thanks
Absolutely would love to see a
preliminary winter forecast!
Chris Bailey thank you for all you do !
Your hard work is greatly appreciated !
Your user name is great!
Thank you!
Hopefully we will have lots of snow this winter
Let’s see it!!
Would love to see the preliminary winter forecast in October. You rock Chris Bailey!
Early winter forecast, please! (Double meaning intended!)
Yes I want to hear your October winter forecast. Please put the forecast on the blog too. I can’t get WKYT. 🙁
I’ve never commented before. I would love an early winter forecast. Thanks for doing this blog. I love it!!
YES, absolutely give us a sneak peek!
Bring it CB!
Yes please 🙂
Please give us the sneak peek
I’m a school bus driver and read this daily as to what’s coming up. Please give us your early forecast !! 🙂
Earlier the info the better to plan. Read this every morning and if bad weather check back several times during the day. Thanks for all you do.
Early forecast!
Not a winter fan, but bring on the preliminary forcast!
Terri says
I want to see it!!!
Terri says
I want to see it!!!
Yes! Early forecast, please!
I need snow days!!!!!!!!!!!!
Bring on that early winter forecast!
I would love to know if winter is going to slam us this year, since last year we almost saw no winter.
Yes to early forecast!
yeahhhhh!!!!
Yes, please bring on that winter forecast! I’m hoping for some snow!!
I would love to see what kinda winter we might have around here.
Winter Forecast please!
Yes please
Would like to see your thoughts for upcoming winter
I vote for October winter preview forecast.
Yes please!
Yes, I would love to see the October winter preview.
Let’s see that early forecast Chris. Come on, YOU CAN DO IT!!!
Yes PLEASE!!!
WINTER FORECAST, WINTER FORECAST, WINTER FORECAST
Yay for early forcast!
I’m already getting excited about the upcoming winter! I’m thinking if you (Chris) are considering a preliminary report in early October, then there might just be an interesting look ahead. (That’s what I’m hoping anyway!) Please do one!!
Would love to see your winter forecast!
Please. Please. Early winter forecast!!!!
Yes, please!
Bring on the winter weather outlook. So I can do mine for my school. “The weather Wizard”
Give us the early winter forecast!
I want the winter forecast!
Make the Forecast!!!
Give us the preliminary!!!! Thank you! :}
I’d like the early winter forecast!
Early winter please
The weather wienies want winter tidings…
I would really like to see a preliminary forecast! Think Snow!
Please give us the October preliminary forecast!
Do the preliminary forecast!!
sounds good Chris, Lets here it
I want to hear your thoughts!
Let us see that winter forecast!!!! Mr. Bailey
The Farmer’s Almanac is calling for wet and mild, like last year. I would love to know your thoughts!
Yes definitely would appreciate an early winter outlook. Personally, I think “El Nino -vs- La Nina is over-hyped for this area, so I’d like to know what other factors will go into our winter weather. Please do, Chris.
Yes the earlier the better
Yes! Don’t ever ‘TOY’ with a winter forecast idea. Just do it 🙂
School me! Hoping for any of these analogs: 1977, 1978, 1979…..
Bring it on!!
In case 175 is that magic number!
Been waiting alllll summer!! Please tell!!
Please!!!!!!
October winter thoughts please. Do I have enough hay in the barn to last through the winter. I’ve got 50 more bales than we needed last year.
Yes to that Oct forecast.Chris I wish you or someone could talk about if we have a LA Nina this year and what it means for ky.Bring on a snowy winter.
Bring on the winter talk
Writing from Florence, Italy….Inquiring minds want to know….. please send a snowy winter!
Post it in October!! ❄️❄️
Winter is coming! Yes sir please!
Chris’ Winter Forcast…the high point of my Fall! Appreciate your hard work!
Chris, it takes some courage to do the prognostication thing, but I’m looking forward to your comments!
Yep Chris we need a preliminary winner forecast. We smashed that 150 comment number that you had in your head… #ImWaiting