Good afternoon, gang. My time is short, but the weather is super busy, so let’s get after it! 🙂
Today’s rains are blowing across the state and are packing a gusty punch. A few areas may see winds hit 30mph at times. The rains continue into the evening across much of the region…
The 12z model runs are trending back toward a stronger system for Friday night and Saturday. They have slowed the arrival of this storm down just a bit, with the bulk of the showers and storms arriving Saturday…
We will still need to watch for a line of low-topped strong to severe storms sweeping across the state on Saturday. With our without storms, winds can gusty between 40 and 50mph at times.
Colder air pours in Saturday night into Sunday with the chance for a few flakes to fly, especially in the east.
Canadian
GFS Ensembles
I’m not sure I’ve seen the operational models as confused as they are right now. They have ZERO run to run consistency, and are sometimes showing massive swings. The GFS last night lost much of the Thanksgiving week and weekend cold. A few hours later, the same exact model shows this…
Until the operational models show some consistent solutions, they are of little help.
In the meantime, the Ensembles keep doing their steady thing…
I will update things again later this evening. Make it a good one and take care.
Thanks Chris for taking time to give us an update.
That’s why extended forecasts this time of year are pretty much a waste of time (or for fun only). It’s not until 2 or 3 days out when we can get a decent solution.
12z GFS shows snow all the way down to the Gulf Coast. Talk about a complete garbage run by the GFS.
The truth is somewhere in the middle probably.
Cold rain & mix. Perhaps common ingredients this winter.
Thanks Chris! Appreciate you taking time to update. Looking forward to seeing that winter forecast tomorrow!
I didn’t realize it was tomorrow?!
Thanks Chris, Your winter outlook you are to post tomorrow may help many of us understand this current weather pattern.
I hope Chris is on to something others are missing. My local forecast has 50 degrees or higher every day next week.
Here in southern KY, on the TN border looks like a couple of cool days this weekend…all others are in the 50’s and 60’s for the 10 day range.
Would love to see that map Wedneday night into Turkey day. Would keep me from traveling to the inlaws. LOL