Good Thursday and Happy Thanksgiving. I want you to know I am very appreciative and thankful for each and every one of you. You have turned our little weather community into a must stop for many people across the entire region. I’ve said it many times, but you all are the backbone of this site.

The weather on this Thanksgiving looks absolutely great. Temps are deep in the 20s this morning, then rise into the 40s this afternoon.

Black Friday shoppers will be facing a mix of sun and clouds with upper 20s and low 30s in the morning, with temps hitting the 50s in the afternoon. Winds are going to be very gusty.

A cold front moves in on Saturday and may bring a stray shower or two. Winds will be gusty, with a hit and run cold shot behind it for Sunday…

Temps rebound quickly early next week as our flow becomes southwesterly. This is ahead of another system moving in by the middle of the week…

Last night, I showed you the European Ensembles that took December into the tank in terms of winter weather across the eastern part of the country. Granted, that’s a long range forecast the model is making, but the medium range models are showing something similar as we usher in December.

The GFS Ensembles show some healthy blocking signatures showing up, with a deepening trough in the eastern part of the country…

The ensembles have done a pretty good job with the cold shots we’ve had from late October through much of November. A similar pattern occurring a month later has much different implications in terms of severity of the cold shots and winter weather. If a pattern can produce snow in October around here, imagine what it can do in December or January.

I will have another update at some point later today. Have a very happy Thanksgiving and take care.