Good Sunday, folks. Here’s hoping this update finds you putting the wraps on an absolutely awesome Thanksgiving weekend. Weather-wise, it’s been fantastic with dry times for all of your travels. As we head into the closing days of November, a milder wind will blow, but an interesting system arrives as we officially welcome in December.
We continue our dry run of weather out there today, with a seasonal chill in the air. Those milder winds kick back in from Monday through Wednesday with mainly dry times. There’s a small shower chance on Wednesday, but the bulk of the rains hold off until Thursday.
That’s when we get a system to move into our region, being pushed by a nice upper level system. This brings gusty rain our way on Thursday, with a chance to see a mix on Friday. That chance depends on just how strong this system turns out to be.
If it’s more progressive like this…
Forget about it.
If it’s deeper like this…
You have a chance for a flake on day one of December.
There isn’t much “true” cold air for that system to tap, so it will have to manufacture some. So our Friday flakes chance depends on how potent the upper low is.
Once that moves way, temps will rebound in a big way, but major changes are afoot. I’ve been blogging about the milder signals doing battle with the colder signals showing up. These colder signals are going to win the battle, but not until later in week one of December. From that point on, the overall setup will be loaded with a ton of winter potential.
Major blocking is developing to our north, and a west coast ridge will eventually join it. That leads to a deepening eastern US trough. Watch that play out on the European Ensembles…
All of the ensembles are have been signing this tune for days now, which is pretty awesome to see such agreement. Now the operational models are getting with the program. Watch the GFS go toward the same wintry look…
I will update things later today, so check back in. Until then, enjoy your Sunday and take care.
I love rare/interesting weather events. Here is one for you!
http://www.weather.gov/lmk/oct_snowier_than_nov
Let’s all hope that the late week storm develops into a major snowstorm. We need it.
Been kind of dry lately..Hope its not a sign of things to come when the pattern does flip around the 7th..Cold and dry awful..Sunny and warm good..
For the readers, the animation above showing the 500 millibar anomalies, those anomalies are not temperature departures in degrees Fahrenheit or Celsius.
You keep pushing back winter!
Seems so. But be careful, you will get a “Wrong” reply. š
This.
No, not “this”.
Bubba would love another reason to pontificate like past winters.
Warm spells are becoming longer and cold snaps shorter and less potent. I hope this isnāt becoming a trend.
In 1917-18 winter, the first big snowstorm / blizzard occurred on December eight and all through the winter there was one snowstorm after another and spring was late. Those years were La nina years. Don’t think I would like a winter that long. I like about three major snowstorm per winter. Good Luck, right ?
Thanks Chris. Been a beautiful weekend for sure. Got about 85-90% of my Christmas shopping finished, because Iāve shopped all year! Soon have been able to concentrate on decorating the house, and spending time with my family. Canāt say I wouldnāt like to see some flakes either! My kids are headed back to Ohio today. š At least trey have a nice travel day. Have a great Sunday afternoon all!