Good Tuesday, everybody. Our run of mild weather continues, but the focus of the forecast is on a true winter pattern taking shape as we head into December. It’s a pattern that has the full confidence of the teleconnections , analogs and forecast models. Your friendly weatherdude also approves this message. 🙂
Before we get to that point, we have some mild days and a late week system to track.
Temps remain mild through Wednesday with a mix of sun and clouds. Those clouds increase early Thursday with gusty showers quickly entering the picture. Those are with a system pushing through here into Friday, bringing temps back down…
A few of the models are trying to pick up on another system crossing the region over the weekend, developing a bigger storm near the east coast…
That’s probably being overplayed on the GFS.
Temps bounce back this weekend into Monday as winds turn back from the southwest. That southwest flow is ahead of our big pattern change moving in here next week.
As major blocking goes up well to our north, it forces a deep trough to develop and lock in across the eastern half of the country…
The European Model is now crashing this cold air in here with a potent system late Monday into Tuesday…
The Euro then brings a clipper through the region by the middle of next week…
That’s all happening a little faster than I think , but the overall idea looks good. That overall idea matches the all the Ensembles and brings a massive trough underneath major blocking. This is an animation of 24 hour increments from the European…
Look at the cold showing up in that trough…
What about snow chances to go with all that cold? Look… I’m sure there will be chances, but there’s nothing specific to point to from this far out.
As I’ve been discussing, climatology suggests all this falls in the period when we typically get our first snowfall across much of the region. With the much colder than normal pattern setting up, we may be able to do it a little better than “normal” as we head through December.
The GFS Ensembles see the snow chances to go along with the cold that comes…
I will hook you up with updates later today, so check back. Have a good Tuesday and take care.
I’ll take it.
I would like to see more of that red and purple on the snowfall map from Kentucky back into Arkansas.
I wish it were possible for Mets to be able to forecast clearly for two weeks out at least – but I know this isn’t possible. But it would be awesome if it was.
Rodger says bring it on but he’s also seen long-range maps, teleconnections and hope go out the window. Next week is a long ways off in winter world. Rodger in Dodger
The cold is a pretty much a given that looks to happen every computer model is in agreement with that. Whether or not we will see snow accompany the cold is the question but signs are that looks to possibly happen. Somewhere around the December 7th time frame maybe a few days after and on looks to be when winter will make a appearance.
Yeah, wasn’t that long ago the models were showing a snowstorm around black Friday. And look what happened, Nothing but sunshine and mild temps over the last week.
Clippers should bring a chance for the white stuff to some, the big question is usually how much we will warm up as the fronts roll through.
Last February we had one clipper system that brought three inches of snow out here in the county. The system came in quick before the warmer air could get the temperatures above freezing. After it past, the wind pick up from the northwest and the temperatures dropped into the teens. A few days after, the temperatures rose to above normal levels and stayed there. A two day winter. That’s It !
That all depends, with clipper systems usually you don’t warm ahead of a clipper system. If the trough is pretty stout and the cold air goes deep into the southern states well that would suppress the storm track south of us leaving the Ohio Valley cold and dry.
http://weather.com/storms/winter/news/2017-11-27-low-late-november-us-snow-cover
I’m afraid that when the colder air gets into place, forecast around the 7th of December, there will be a lack of moisture to produce any good amount of snow. Our snowstorms originate in the southern Rockies as a result of two jet streams coming together. If you notice, there isn’t any subtropical jet stream this year.
I do notice that when Alberta Clippers move to our south and then hook up with a low pressure system off the southeast coast to form a Nor’ Easter, which usually gives those folks a very interesting snowstorm or blizzard. This happens allot especially the last several winters.
Thanks Chris. Sounds like fun and games will start before too long. Hopefully we will get to see some white stuff around Christmas…guess we’ll see….
Have a great day everyone.