Good Sunday, folks. Light showers are working across the state today, kicking off a very active setup for the coming few weeks. This action packed pattern is likely to really kick it up a few notches as we head into Christmas Weekend and Christmas week, with winter weather very possible.

Let’s begin with today’s showers, then begin our look ahead. This isn’t a lot of rain working across Kentucky, and it may only dampen the ground for some areas. Still, it’s likely to be a rather gloomy Sunday…

The threat for showers continues for the next few days, with temps at or a little above normal. There’s a stronger system across the south by the middle of the week, and the European Model brings this right into our region…

That looks a little too wound up for my taste, and may be a product of the European being too slow with energy ejecting from the southwest.

The pattern after that will feature a strong cold front rolling into the region on Friday. This will unleash a pattern that can feature waves of low pressure developing and rolling northeastward along a stalled out boundary. Exactly where that boundary sets up is still a mystery.

That scenario can bring rain, snow, ice or a combination of the three from Friday through Christmas Day. I’m going to continue to ride this map I put out last Monday…

I’m hopeful to be able to get a little more specific with that map later today or Monday.

The GFS wobbles from run to run on exactly how everything shakes out, but it continues to bring a significant winter weather threat to our region. The model is settling on two waves of low pressure. The first coming along the front on Friday with rain to some snow. The next wave comes Christmas eve and Day, with the current run showing snow across the east…

Here’s the snow map from that run…

The ice map is significantly lower with this run…

The European Model is similar to the GFS with the Friday system, but can’t seem to find the Christmas Eve and Christmas Day system. The setup on the model appears ripe for much more moisture than it’s currently showing. Just look at the bitter cold coming in, with the mild air across the southeast…

I highlighted the area where the Euro should be showing more precipitation.

Regardless, The European and GFS show the bitter cold taking control of much of the country Christmas week.

The Canadian Model continues to be on its own and has no idea what to do with any of this…

Again, these models will continue to flip and flop with each run for the next few days. One run may show a foot of snow, followed by the next run showing all rain or vice versa. I still cant tell you if your Christmas will be white, wet or both

Updates come your way later today. Have a great Sunday and take care.