Good afternoon, folks. We continue to track two winter weather systems for the week ahead. The first rolls in here later Monday, with the second one due in later in the week. That system can bring a bigger threat of winter weather to our region.
The Monday light snow maker arrives during the afternoon and evening behind a cold front. Periods of light snow and snow showers will be likely, putting down light accumulations. The best chance to pick up on accumulating snows will be in the mountains of the east.
That’s where a few models are spitting out an inch or so…
With temps dropping toward 20 late Monday night, slick spots may easily develop on roads in the east.
The late week system continues to evolve and we finally have the GFS doing what it does best… losing systems in that 3-6 day window…
That said, I mentioned in my last post that this system would trend more south than north. I just think it’s way too weak. Can that above scenario happen? Only if the arctic front just crushes everything.
The Canadian Model continues to show a healthy hit across Kentucky and surrounding areas…
The European Model is more similar to the Canadian, but has a slower transition from rain to snow…
There are still lots of questions surrounding this upcoming system, and we are firmly in that window of the models missing out on key aspects of any such system.
I will have another update later this evening. Make it a good one and take care.
Thanks Chris. So, now the fun begins. Will it? Won’t it? Time will tell. Have s good afternoon everyone.
You may need some extra caffeine for the week ahead Coffee Lady! It looks busy and fun:)
“I think it’s just way too weak”
I do not like seeing that quote in the afternoon update
It sounds like he means it would be a bust if it did and he thinks it won’t “unless the arctic air just crushes it.” I’m pretty sure he thinks this will sweep across Tennessee and Kentucky.
Maybe I’m wrong — I just took that as him saying the system is too weak to trend way north. Not that it’s too weak to produce anything. I’m no expert though, for sure.
I won’t be upset if the system does not materialize.
This. Looking like am mix perhaps. Hopefully CB keeps calling it regional 😉 😉
I just wish the March weather would wait till March to get here. I hate the 60’s one day and then flurries and 30 the next. That is all this January has been.
Ginna be too warm for either system….next
It does look like, at the present that the system will not have much moisture to work with. Probably a mixture of light rain and ice which may change over to light snow or flurries. This tells me that the Arctic front is going to move through quickly and hopefully stall just to our east and develop an active surface low. I believe this is the only way we are going to get any accumulating snow out of this late week event.
The week of Friday the 9th is jam-packed with events that will be lost to my students forever if it snows. Normally, I’d be cheering on ANY kind of frozen precipitation, however, this round I am on the sidelines for sure.
Here we go….false alarm
Let’s ride the model roller-coaster.
All of board!
Looks like 18Z GFS is a replay of the 12Z. In the tradition of Seinfeld…No snow for you!
Snow? Fugetaboutit……….
Yawn meter back to a big Yawn..Maybe tomorrow half yawn..These systems just keep drying up and go poof..Sign of things to come?.Might have to start planning on irrigation for the garden rather quickly..No drought monger but enough to make one wonder..
http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/
So far we have had maybe 4 inches of snow in Morehead, and about 10 -12 inches of salt. Surely we will get more snow before this winter is over?
We have you beat in Harlan in terms of less snow but about the same amount of salt. Around 2 and 1/2 inches of snow for the entire season-to-date…lol
Well, regionally speaking- somebody in our range of states should get some snow. Chance for main stuff IMO:
North of KY = 40%
South of KY = 45%
Kentucky = 15%
Hoping we get no more big snows. Some kids already have to attend school later than usual due to that one week of snow.