Good Monday, everyone. A cold front is working across the bluegrass state today, with a few snow showers increasing during the afternoon and evening. As this system brings back some winter weather, the system later this week continues to throw some question marks at us.
Before we get to that, let’s start with the today’s system.
Temps may spike into the 40s ahead of this front, but drop quickly behind it. Winds will be very gusty and that northwesterly wind will fire up snow showers and some squalls later today into this tonight. The best chance for some LIGHT accumulations will be in the east.
Track the action as it begins to develop…
Temps by Tuesday morning drop to around 20, so watch for some slick spots. The rest of the day is cold with highs from the upper 20s to low 30s.
The late week system finds a little bit of a split in the latest models. The European Model is back to a modest rain to snow event, especially in the east and southeast…
The German Model (ICON) continues to be in a similar camp…
The Canadian has jumped on board the progressive train, with light rain to some light snow Thursday into Thursday night…
The GFS is similar…
The reality of this is likely closer to what the European shows than what the GFS is showing. This is likely a rain to snow setup, with a modest snowfall possible in parts of the state. That said, this is still a long way from being set in stone.
One of the wild cards in this whole setup is how quickly the next winter weather threat shows up this weekend. The models are bringing this in here by Saturday night and Super Bowl Sunday. Here’s the GFS…
The European Model is actually showing a similar setup…
As you can see, there’s no shortage of action to track over the next week. Can we get the weekend system to slow down enough to let the Thursday system do some winter weather work around here? That’s the big question of the next few days.
I will have updates coming your way later today, so check back. Make it a good one and take care.
06z Nam just picking up on end of week storm and looking like most of the other models. End of week storm looking like a bust for us snow lovers. Have to wait and see what the end of the weekend storm does.
Are you sure? Looks to me stronger and digging in a little more than the gfs. But in any case we will need to wait until tomorrow evening to get a lock
Cant really call a something a bust just because models showed a storm 9 days out and then lost it 5 days out. Just means there “my not” have been a storm from the start. Taking these week out runs verbatim will lead to disappointment 95% of the time. 😉
I stand to be corrected. Tks
Not sounding good….not a major storm anymore.
Thank gosh!
Almost anytime you start talking about a winter storm a week away it never pans out ky snowstorms usually sneak up on you a day or two out I think we jenx ourselves talking about it most of the big snows in ky weren’t forecasted far out in the future hope we still got some winter left in tank we shall see
I just realized that I identify Mount Sterling’s location by Chris’s forecasts for snow! Snow in Central Ky? That’s where we’re located. Snow in the eastern part of the state? Oh, that’s where we are!
Hopefully, we’ll see a few more moderate snows, SOON!
Dangling the carrot for the weekend system. Don’t get to excited about it. But it does keep people tuneing in. Even me.
Thanks Chris for all the weather model updates. My county ( Taylor ) has seen enough snow for this season. I measured in my backyard, four inches on the first snow event and eight inches for the second snow event, which is below normal, but I’ll take it. I just wish that it would snow in those areas of the state, that haven’t receive any snow this winter so far. Have a great Monday.
Still keeping all body parts crossed for a birthday snow for me on Friday! But I will take it Saturday or Sunday if that’s what has to happen. This former Michigan girl misses her snow.
Happy Birthday, Hope you get your snow !
Thanks!!!
My son’s bday is on Friday too, always tease him about seeing his shadow…I know 3 or 4 years ago we had 2 or 3 inches on the ground that Saturday for his bday party we played in….
SAME…It would be nice for the groundhog here in KY to come out and not see his shadow and bury himself in a foot of snow! But hey, if the the snow wants to wait 2 days, tha’ts fine as well.
What are the chances of seeing a dusting in the Ashland area tonight?
Well if you wanted something to give you a glimmer of hope, the latest Euro still looks good for SE KY and the latest GFS trying to go back to snow as well. Honestly, I’ll believe it when I see it
“NWS Jackson – Confidence increasing for accumulating snow potential Thursday evening into Friday morning. Several inches of snow accumulation possible. They say all of eastern Kentucky is still in the game.
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Is that including Frankfort area? Fingers crossed fingers crossed fingers crossed
No…Frankfort would not be considered East Kentucky.
Lol…from pure crazy excitement by Chris 3 days ago, to nothing to really see here for most of the state. As Maximus would say, “are you not entertained?”. Yes Chris, we are very entertained. 😛
I would suggest waiting for a few more model runs before giving up hope. Let’s see how things look later today/tonight. Could be different story!
Thanks Chris. I hope everyone has a good Monday. On the weekend storm, I’m just taking each day as it comes. Ok if it don’t but ok if it does.
Help a girl out. I live in Adair Co. I don’t understand the models, I just read what Chris says and the comments. What are your thoughts on our area??
All you need to know to understand the models is Blue = Snow, Green = Rain, Pink = Frozen Mix.
German model ICON says in his best Terminator voice:
Nothing to see here, please move along!
“Hasta la vista, baby”……But hopefully he will then say…
“I’ll be back.”
These models are outlooking systems that do not even exist yet, so of course they are going to be wrong- all agreeing at the time, or not. Factor in our meteorological fence location- no wonder CB is using the word “region” more than “Kentucky” to describe the outlooks potential impact.
Again, cherry picking is only good for pies and sundaes.
I enjoyed the last surprise clipper where we got five inches. No waiting on models, it just happened. There is excitement when models come together for a big storm too, but those surprise over achievers are welcome. Hoping for one storm this weekend. I saw the ‘94 storm. Would like another big one.
I’m going with Feb. 3-4 time frame for best chance for significant snow greater than 2″.
Its hit the upper 40s already in my backyard after having a touch of ice on the roads this morning.
Just a quick poll, do you like “tracking” models for snow, when it almost always turns into nothing big?
sorry I think if you where a betting man on model info, you always bet agaisn’t it.