Good Tuesday, everybody. Snow showers and flurries will wind down early today, after putting down light accumulations in many areas. We are likely waking up to some cancellations and delays because of the flakes. I’m tracking more snow chances as we close out January and usher in February.
As mentioned, the snow showers and flurries are calming down today, but will still create slick travel at times…
A nice redound in temps moves in for Wednesday, ahead of our next system moving in Thursday into Thursday night. A cold front sweeps in here from the northwest, with rain ahead of it. A weak wave of low pressure develops along the front, with a switch to snow likely.
The GFS is back to showing a slightly better organized setup…
That run of the GFS has a modest snowfall across parts of central and eastern Kentucky…
The Canadian Model is a little slower with the transition from rain to snow…
Moral of the story with the Thursday system… This is a rain to snow setup, but this system is zipping through here pretty quickly. The heavier the precipitation shield, the better the chance for some thumpers to fall from the sky. That heavy precip pulls down cold air in this type of atmosphere. The best chance for that to happen is across the south and southeast.
As of now, I still can’t see this being anything more than a modest snowfall for some.
The fast movement of the Thursday system is due to the quick arrival of our weekend situation. One system likely moves in Saturday night and early Sunday, with another system moving our way late Sunday into Monday.
The European Model actually has the action starting by Saturday afternoon…
It then brings another system in here late Monday…
Here’s the view from the Canadian…
The GFS actually has 3 systems, followed by another one a few days later…
With arctic shots plentiful in the coming few weeks, the GFS Ensembles suggest it may snow all the way to the Gulf again…
I will have your usual updates back and running today, so check back. Make it a good one and take care.
….About 1 inch here at the house in the valley, Harlan KY. Overall, not a bad little snowfall considering it was over 50 yesterday!
We are actually going into the best weather pattern so far this winter season for winter storm threats as we are not in the main path of the Arctic air but on the southern periphery with a decently active storm track for the next few weeks. Our biggest fight will be shots of too warm winning at times, but I am excited:)
Just the usual skiff in Middlesboro but there’s always “next week”
Hope this weather breaks by the end of February and it starts to stay in the 50’s and even warmer. But I know March can be a miserable month with wind and cold.
Some weather reports for Huntington are calling for all rain Thursday night! Boo! Guess time will tell! I like your outlook better!
Once this pattern flips we could see our snowiest February in a long while. Artic cold moving in for much of the month with deepening troughs to bring the fun and games back to Kentucky. As long as the southern jet can stay active we might be talking about this Feb for years to come. Thanks for the update CB.
How can I “Like” that comment?
How can I dislike that comment? I’m ready for sun and temperatures in the 80’s.
The above scenarios to me look like nickel and dime systems. I would love to see the 3 “systems” all come together and build a snowstorm. But to Me it looks like not much.
Thursday/Thursday night not much as well…to fast.
Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. . . .
but fool me once again
The ensembles showing snow mean we will get little to nothing. I don’t think they have panned out at all this year. Fun to watch though.
A stationary trough over the center of the country with lots of cold arctic air in place, and slow moving upper level systems rotating around the trough and combining with energy from the subtropical jet in the southern plains is what is needed to bring major snow events to the lower Ohio Valley. This scenario, usually occurs in ENSO weak El nino years. I don’t see it happening in a ENSO weak La nina, which unfortunately is what is in place this winter. However, we may receive several weak fast moving snow events through the month of February, which can still be interesting.
Several fast moving light events are more an annoyance than interesting. I will take one big snow in February every year over 5 or 6 roof top dusters and ankle biters. Go big or go home, just as CB says.
Unfortunately Schroeder is right weak La Nina usually produce quick hitting systems that move in and move out leaving light snowfall.
El Nino year’s can be bad also..Case in point the last 2 winters..Have not looked but believe the last 2 winters were el nino’s..If we could have got some help with a -NAO to slow these systems down bigger snows was possible..As of now there just like a drive by shooting in Chicago..Quick hit and gone.
Here’s the years listed as El nino and La nina and their strength :http://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm The stronger El nino years are mild and stormy. It’s the weak ( sometimes ) are cold and snowy ( 1969-70 was the snowiest winter. Winter 2008-09 was a weak La nina was the year we had the ice storm here in central Kentucky.
Thanks Chris. Just gonna sit back and see what happens. No point in getting either excited or depressed as it will do whatever it does. But if it does give us some good snow, that is okay. IF not, well, that is okay too. Might as well be. Have a good Tuesday everyone.
Coffee lady has the right attitude on about everything that she says. Nice to hear that.
Looking like salt accumulation might be equal to total snow actually on the ground for the rest of this winter. I am fine with that, but snow fans not so much. Well, I am fine with it until going jogging and all the wind picks the salt up and burns my face and eyes. Not to mention a very dry funky taste.
At least we appear to be dodging big ice 🙂
You and me both Bubbs. Jogging has been a pleasure overall this winter-except of course those 2 weeks of nearly sub-zero.
I know lots around here want big snows but we all know they just don’t happen that often. If you get 4 inches out of an event, and can do some shoveling and sledding, that’s a good event for around here. Those back-to-back years of 12-inch plus storms were rare, as were the years 1976-78. Not unheard of, but not the usual either. I think if we can scrape together 4-5 inches by next Wednesday, we should call it… normal.
Most of us got three record snows in less than one rolling year just two years ago 🙂 Of course most of us also went 16 years prior to that with clippers and several inches being the big snows. Got two big ice events though.
If by most of us, you mean the northern half of the state with the large population centers you are correct. The southern half of the state most definitely did not have 3 record snows(nor 2 for that matter) 2 yrs ago and haven’t had 2 or more (big ones) since the early 90’s.
I really don’t think that most of us gets frustrated with the actual weather. We get highly frustrated with looking at models, week long potentials and even the blog talking so much about snow models, potential’s disappointing.
In the age of fake news….I need to read what is being said about the weather from 1 or 2 days out.
I been lucky enough to see 3 and 4 inch snowfalls so far in my neck of woods here far Western, ky. Hopefully the rest of state that hasn’t been so lucky get there share before winter is over. Stay positive people it seems some people is taken a little to far when it doesn’t snow in there area
We have between 2-3 inches and its still snowing on our side of the mountain in western Pike County. It’s a pretty wet fluffy snow! I’ll take it!
About 2 new inches of snow on the NE side of Pikeville(in between Pikeville and Williamson, WV)and still some light snow falling.
Models seem all over the place for the weekend. Sheesh
Just watch and wait. No need to complain about models, or stress over snow. Would be nice to have a storm, but there is a lot for which to be grateful, snow or no snow.
Congratulations to anyone who got any accumulation last night. The Huntington tri-state area got zero. The Friday and Sunday systems keep looking weaker and will probably be rain and flurry makers. A foot of snow would be great but I would be happy with a 6 to 7 inches. I would rather not get anything as to keep receiving these inch or less nuisances.