Good evening, folks. As temps crash from west to east, a band of light frozen precipitation will develop tonight across central and eastern Kentucky. This may cause some travel issues to develop just in time for the Monday Morning commute.
A Winter Weather Advisory is out for parts of central and northeastern Kentucky…
A light glaze and a small accumulation of snow may combine to do some slipper work on area roads. In pouring over the latest data, that advisory may need to be expanded into the rest of eastern and southeastern Kentucky. Pockets of freezing rain may wind up being more prominent in the southeast, than anywhere else. That would be a double whammy for areas still dealing with widespread flooding.
Here are your evening trackers…
Hamburg Area from WKYT Studio
Lexington
Fifth Third Pavilion Live Cam
Downtown Lexington
I-75 @ Newtown Pike
Lexington
I-75 @ Clays Ferry Bridge South
Between Lexington and Richmond
US 60 @ US 127
Frankfort
US 60 @ Chenault Road
Near Millville
Winchester
Georgetown
I-64 at KY-801
Near Morehead
Maysville
Louisville
Bardstown
I-275 approaching KY 20/Airport
Near Covington
I-71/I-75 at Buttermilk Pike
Near Covington
I-71/I-75 at 12th St.
Covington
I hit 65 here today with cold front now almost through my county. The Cumberland River is receding in Harlan but still rising for folks from bell county on southwestward. I fell short of 5 inches in my part of the county but some saw close to 6 on the VA border.
Double digit monthly totals are a good bet and pretty rare to consider this a short month. I was a kid back in 1994 when we had the last February flood in SE KY which was a crippling ice storm for central/west KY. A bit ironic given the dates lining up for these two storms.
I wonder if it is less ironic but more periodic in nature. We need more data points. Terry, your posts are always a pleasure to read.
Without any research and my thoughts only, I think Dec through April is the primary season for floods in KY and surrounding states due to active jet stream pattern from winter through May (most years) coupled with vegetative resting season which equates to faster runoff than mid-spring through mid-autumn. We do get a lot of summer flash flood events too do to convective T-storm but, overall, we seem to see more widespread flood events during winter and spring. Also, it takes more rain in the warm season for floods due to the growing season with vegetative traspiration, as case in point, only 3 inches plus can cause flooding in SE KY like we currently have while it usually does not flood in the summer until we reach 5 plus. Thoughts?
I agree! The photosynthetic processes of plants and their ability to use capillary action to pull water upward against the force due to gravity then allows the plants to release a significant amount of moisture when transpiration takes place. This, essentially, is the basis for the humid conditions that are present throughout the warmer months of the year. The fact that the ground is currently in a cold, rigid state makes the ground less like “carpet” and more like “hardwood floor”; the absorption of water is much more difficult, and can lead to flooding conditions.
Take care
Have a good one, now.
http://waterdata.usgs.gov/ky/nwis/uv?site_no=03404000
By the various gage height data I combed through, it appears the Cumberland River beat out the 1994 flood event with one example linked above showing the river still rising at Williamsburg.
Keep in mind that the body of water will continue to increase in water over the next several days as run-off and cloudy conditions will make water evaporation take place at a much slower rate than what is typical in non-flooding conditions. A lot of standing water and flooded zones on higher elevations will eventually be pulled toward the center of the Earth due to the force due to gravity, which will make the water rise in the same manner that a bathrub fills with water when the faucet is running. Terry, please continue to keep us up to date regarding the scientific data.
Hearing some sleet coming down here in the Eastwood area of Louisville.
My visual scanners in the Louisville Metro are not showing any signs of sleet in the general vicinity. I have also tried to use thermal sensors to detect any heat voids, which would be indicative of cold falling precipitation, but those tests turned up nil as well. Lou, can you please use visual scanning to determine if the claim is true? I think that it would be more effective than using aural methods since the weight of falling sleet is lower than that of a rain drop; the lower weight results in a lower terminal velocity when falling, which means that there is less energy to convert into sound whenever the sleet impacts with a surface such as the roof of a building or the ground. Therefore, sound of sleet impact can be incredibly difficult to hear when compared to rain. Try to rely less on “hearing” the sleet and more on “seeing” the sleet. Please, Lou, keep us updated regarding the weather conditions in East Louisville.
Or just step outside and see if what you hear is true? Simple enough? No rocket science required.
Where in my post did I mention anything about “rocket science” or anything pertaining to rockets?
Your bombastic replies are really unnecessary. Just keep it simple like I said above. Perhaps you could explain why sleet, or ice pellets, since they have less weight, therefore less kinetic or potential energy hitting the ground, is often exaggerated by NWS radar returns as heavy rainfall, leading to an overestimating of rainfall amounts here at the surface?
Mike S…I agree…some are book science smart…not real world observer smart…I always hear sleet when it is falling verses light rain…but I don’t live in my parents basement…lol
Lord Helmet, it is good that you are among the rest of us who pay taxes, hold down secure jobs, and actually make the world a better place due to your contributions within your field of study and/or your career. With that said, sleet can typically be heard whenever it is more of an “ice” form as compared to its “light rain form”, but that is usually most pronounced when people, such as yourself, dwell in areas that have yet to upgrade their tin roofs and/or their energy inefficient, thin windows. Sure, sleet can be heard, but it confirmation needs to be addressed any time a scientific claim has been established.
Tin roof and inefficient windows, I don’t live in a house like that…maybe you were thinking about your hat…lol
Where are you from where hats can have inefficient windows and are made of tin?
Hi, Mike! Thanks for the great question! Sleet is an interesting form of precipitation in that it is in the “middle ground” between pure snow and pure rain. Of course, when dealing with temperatures that are around freezing levels, no snow is “purely” frozen since snow is categorized differently from falling ice and hail that we typically see in the spring, summer, and autumn months of the solar year. Sleet, though, is more of a colloquial term that can describe “cold rain” that has a higher viscosity than water without any frozen particulate matter but higher than that of snow. Therefore, there is a range of percentages of rain-to-snow ratios that can all still count as “sleet” when falling. However, depending on the ground temperature and the temperature as a result of man-made devices that expel significant portions of heat, the sleet can quickly turn to “rain” even before the sleet hits the ground. When sleet does hit the ground, the impact with the ground may result in so much thermal energy that the sleet immediately turns back into rain. Sleet is such a difficult form of precipitation to categorize, which makes it even difficult for computer systems to be able to categorize the precipitation since they are based on algorithms that are essentially black and white. As a metaphor, data can either be 0, 1, 2, or 3. 0 = Ice, 1 = Snow, 2 = Sleet, or 3 = Rain.
One thing is for sure, a ‘rocket scientist ‘ you are not. Too bad gravity allows your hands to stay on the keyboard and type… smh
You do realize that the gravitational force is one of the easiest forces to overcome. The simple fact that the muscles on the upper side of you hand can contract to pull your finger up from the keyboard serves as an excellent example of how easy it is to overcome the gravitational force. Consider a child who jumps into the air. By jumping into the air and breaking contact with the Earth, the child has overcome the force due to gravity. Therefore, “gravity allows your hands to stand on the keyboard and type” is not actually an accurate statement.
Good lord, are you kidding me ‘Admiral’. I stepped out on my deck as well. I don’t care what your scanners are showing you it’s sleet. I’m not impressed with your vocabulary. I am the daughter of a meteorologist and have been a student of global weather and climate my entire life. I don’t comment much here, but I am really sick and tired of know it alls on this site, you included. Back off.
What part are you actually sick of? You are sick of me interjecting scientific facts and scientifically sound explanations in my posts? I have not once attacked you, talked about your personality, or spoken to you about anything other than the weather. There is no reason for you to be hostile over the fact that Louisville Metro, at the time of your post, did not have sleet but I inquired if East Louisville did. I am not trying to be a “know it all”, but you can also fact check me on anything that I say pertaining to scientific explanations. Please do. I would hate for the kids who read this blog to engage in inaccurate scientific study.
I don’t need to fact check you, nor do I want to. I also don’t need you to explain anything scientific to me, thanks. Any scientific questions I might have can be answered by my father or my colleagues.
Funny my comment got first reply got kicked out. Please don’t demean others Admiral. You know nothing about me or my experiences. I stepped out onto my deck and saw it as well. Maybe I should have made that more clear for you. I am the grown daughter of a meteorologist and have been a student of climate and weather my entire life. I am not impressed with your vocabulary.
Well now the original reply shows up.
Funny how that works.
You stated that you heard sleet. Forgive me for not being in possession of the relevant information that you actually SAW the sleet too. Not ONCE did I say that you were wrong, and not once did I state that you we’re lying. What I did ask was to confirm that what you “heard” was sleet since the Metro area, at the time, did not have any sleet. Thank you for the extra information so that I am now clear that you actually witnessed sleet.
Sure you are right.
http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap?lat=38.25&lon=-85.76000214&cm_ven=localwx_wumap
My visual and thermal scanners were not showing anything in the Louisville Metro. Aural sensors were also not picking up on any falling sleet. Therefore, I am not saying that Lou is wrong, but I am saying that I cannot confirm that sleet is in the area. However, the digital data contained within the link that you just posted does indicate that the conditions are prime for sleet to form and fall.
Ack, I put you on the spot earlier about sleet and exaggerated radar precipitation estimates. I thought you handled that pretty well on short notice. I still think it has more to do with reflectivity issues or algorithms, something like that.
Again, just keep things simple here and don’t demean others’ comments, because we simply just don’t speak your ‘language’. And we’re likely not going to conform to your way of thinking, just so you know. So, if you want to hang out here for a while, learn to dumb down your expressions and people may gradually warm up to you. Otherwise, it’s going to be like ice pellets pinging a tin roof, quite annoying for you and us.
Yes, I hesitate to even post on this blog and I see many of us long time posters are doing the same these days.
Hate to say it, but I may be throwing in the towel too.
Why? I enjoy your comments and additions to the discussions.
Why? We would love to hear your thoughts and addition to the weather related discussions. You always bring wonderful insight to the comment section.
I am not here to be “liked” nor am I here to be “disliked”. What users think of other users should be irrelevant with regards to discussions about the weather and/or the scientific processes that are responsible for what we observe. For what it is worth, there is not a single user on this blog who I dislike since comments are not meant to get personal; comments are based on what we see, what we know, and what we think about the weather. I appreciate any and all comments. I love the informal conversations about the weather that is seen and expected, but I also love the scientific discussions like I have had with Terry and Schroeder. This blog is big enough for both types of conversations, and diversity in the user base should be encouraged rather than discouraged. Mike, you do not discourage in any way. You are consistently a pleasant user. However, I can communicate with anyone regardless of educational level, age, sex, identified gender, race, ethnicity, nationality, religion, political party, and creed. I love communication. I cannot wait to spend more time discussing the spring and summer weather with many of you as we begin the Thaw of 2018.
Looking interesting for Friday.. Gfs and euro both sense a light snow event. Might be the last here in TN if the south east ridge doesn’t budge.
Why? We would love to hear your thoughts and addition to the weather related discussions. You always bring wonderful insight to the comment section.
Ignore my comment. That was for another user. How do we feel about the light snow event? At this point, would the snow lovers accept a dusting or a one inch snow maker? What I am on Team #Hashtag, I know that some users are #TeamSpring and will hate to hear the prospect of a light snow maker. Thank you for the post. I appreciate the insight.
I am on #TeamSpring, I want a few clear days in the 60s to tend to the soil.
Is your soil currently as saturated as mine? The KY soil, or red clay in my case, has become so saturated that I could re-enact the “Unchained Melody Scene” from Ghost if someone were to be kind enough to let me borrow her or his pottery wheel. The consistency of the clay after the inches and inches of rain have resulted in an incredible soil amalgamation.
Sleet in Floyd County. Keep the blog light and pleasant.
Was this a confirmed sighting? If so, I am excited fiend you! Winter is not finished yet! She rears he ugly head once more to bring snow and ice into our lives. I Love Lucy.
Excited for you!** Typo! See, even the educated can make mistakes thanks to autocorrection on a mobile device. Technology. Cannot live with it. Cannot live without it.
I can’t even tell if Admiral really is a troll, or just some social weirdo. If he is trolling, then that is some next level stuff and I have to give props.
I will not accept your mad props for being a troll or a social weirdo since I am neither, but I will gladly accept the props in general. Thank you, Shaak. I just love discussing the weather using my knowledge of biology, chemistry, physics, and geology. I very much enjoy it.