Good Tuesday, everyone. Much milder air is pushing into the region today and we look to average milder than normal for the rest of February. Unfortunately, the same setup is poised to bring a lot more rain to our region during the same time. My flooding concerns continue to increase.

As usual, let’s begin with today and roll forward. A few showers will be noted in the southeast early on, but skies will become partly sunny in most areas. Highs will reach the 50s, with a 60 possible in the southwest.

Showers quickly start to develop tonight and into Wednesday as a disturbance moves through from the southwest. The NAM is showing a swath of heavy rain setting up along the Interstate 64 corridor…

Temps will shoot toward 60 by Wednesday, with highs deep into the 60s by Thursday. That’s ahead of a cold front dropping in from the northwest, bringing widespread rain and some thunderstorms.

This looks like a general 1″-3″ rain for much of Kentucky through Friday. Cold air will try to catch the back edge of the rain, switching it over to a period of wet snow later Friday. The GFS is really the only model now showing this.

The same GFS gives us a break for the weekend, but the Canadian Model shows another storm system moving in on Saturday, brining more heavy rain…

The Canadian rainfall through Saturday is worrisome…

A few days ago, I made this map to illustrate where the greatest high water threat may be setting up…

The latest GFS Ensembles keep highlighting the same area for the heaviest rain numbers…

As I’ve mentioned several times, nothing good can come from this pattern.

I will update things later today, so check back. Enjoy this mainly dry Tuesday and take care.