Good Saturday, everyone. Our summertime pattern rolls on through the weekend, but this setup is about to change in a big way. A major pattern shift is about to take place next week and could bring us more rain from the tropics, followed by some real deal fall chill.

Let’s begin with today and roll forward. Temps are steamy once again and we are likely tracking scattered showers and thunderstorms. Any boomer that blows up can put down heavy rains…

I continue to hone in on the setup for next week. It’s one that will feature a big fall cold front moving our way, potentially hooking up with a tropical system coming out of the Gulf of Mexico.

Here’s the system of interest down in the Caribbean…

Where that system goes will, ultimately, be the deciding factor on how much rain we get for the middle and end of the week.

Let’s start by looking at a few of the hurricane model tracks…

The GFS Ensembles track forecast…

Keep in mind, we are early in the formation of this storm, so the models will shift around.

As far as the operational models are concerned, the Canadian is a likely too far west with the current track…

The new version of the GFS continues to be right on top of us…

The European hasn’t had a very good summer with figuring out where tropical systems are going. It is leaving the system meandering in the deep south while sending up a lot of tropical moisture into our region…

My initial thought is this system has a good chance of being drawn northward into our region, ahead of an approaching cold front…

That could give us another heavy rain event, which would be the 4th of the season from a tropical system. The timing of that front is key to exactly where that system winds up.

Much cooler air follows that up, with another system by the weekend delivering even colder air.

I will throw you another update later today, so check back. Make it a good one and take care.