Good afternoon, folks. I promised to drop by for another update and I’m a man of my weather word. 🙂 All eyes continue to be focused on a big change for the week ahead. It’s one that can bring tropical rains back into the bluegrass state and will definitely bring a much chillier weather pattern.

Michael is forming in the southern Gulf of Mexico and may become a weak hurricane on the way to the central Gulf Coast. The NHC forecast track seems to be buying way too much into the outlier European Model…

cone graphic

Let’s keep in mind how bad the European Model has been with tropical systems this season. It continues to suffer from severe convective feedback, which then alters the movement of the storm.

The GFS is back west, throwing tropical moisture into the cold front as it crosses the state. While the track of the center is to our east, look at all the rain it still throws into central and eastern Kentucky…

The Canadian Model continues to be farther west…

Following all that up is chilly air that turns cold. Check out how the pattern flips, allowing all that cold to finally flood into the east…

I leave you with radars to track today’s scattered storms going up…

Enjoy the rest of your day and take care.