Good Saturday, everyone. Our weekend is off and running on a seasonally chilly note, but things are about to change in a hurry. A massive early season arctic outbreak will engulf the eastern half of the country and will break all kinds of records. Kentucky will be part of this outbreak and we could even see some snow out of this.

Before we get to the models, here are my updated thoughts on the setup ahead:

  • The arctic front arrives from northwest to southeast on Monday and is likely to have a wave of low pressure along it.
  • Temps ahead of this boundary may touch 60 in the east and southeast early on, with a major crash taking place as the day wears on.
  • Rain develops ahead of the boundary on Monday, but much of the precipitation appears to be behind the front in the cold air.
  • This leads to a band of snow behind our front from Monday afternoon through Monday night.
  • As the system snows work away early Tuesday, a northwest flow should pick up some moisture from Lake Michigan and bring flurries and some snow showers on Tuesday across the central and east.
  • Can we get some accumulations from this? It’s looking more and more like the answer is yes. That will be especially true Monday evening and Monday night.
  • With a rapid temp drop to well below freezing, a decent freeze up will be possible.
  • Temps will be brutal for this time of year Tuesday into Wednesday. Temps on Tuesday may stay mid and upper 20s for highs with wind chills dipping into the single digits. Lows by Wednesday morning may be historic for so early in the season.

As we get closer to this winter blast, the models are in line with the general line of thinking.

Here’s the GFS…

Here’s the current GFS snow map…

The European Model is just a little slower with the evolution of the system, but it has the same idea…

The Euro snow map…

If the trend continues, we might have to break out the first First Call For Snowfall. 🙂

I will have updates later today, so y’all come back. Have a wonderful Saturday and take care.